State of the Chase Season: 2019

Im losing faith in next week. The GFS and EURO are both trending towards an awful surface pattern characterized by sloppy, strung out lows and a sagging frontal boundary that reaches the gulf with 50s dews by May 4th. Even with 30+ kts of westerly flow I can't get excited with such an awful surface pattern.

Sure, you can hope for a random mesoscale accident somewhere or the caprock pulling a rabbit out of its hat with upper 50s/low 60s dews but other than that. I don't think next week will be the dream tornado pattern we were once hoping for. Beyond that things still look to improve so Im overall optimistic, I just think we'll have to wait a little bit longer.
 
Every model run seems to get worse. Even the usually generous CFS isn’t showing much until the middle of May. I’m still holding out hope it will turn around as it so often does. I could be back to drooling on myself in a couple of days...
 
Weekly forecasts look good after May 10, esp after May 12. Really it's in line with the Quincy climo post above. I know people who had to chasecation early; so, I'm rooting for next week. However my main concern is late May.

AAM and MJO forecasts remain friendly to second half of May trips. Himawari loop shows West Pac stuff moving, which is good. Indian Ocean convection continues to build. Once we get that Pac stuff out of the way, maybe the IO can amp up the Northern Hem.

West Pac stubbornness may be part of the problem next week. However it's finally moving! ECMWF weeklies look good May 12-30. Little cool at times Plains, but it's way better than a ridge. There will be troughs. Tee it up!
 
Adam Lucio said:
Im losing faith in next week. The GFS and EURO are both trending towards an awful surface pattern characterized by sloppy, strung out lows and a sagging frontal boundary that reaches the gulf with 50s dews by May 4th. Even with 30+ kts of westerly flow I can't get excited with such an awful surface pattern.

Sure, you can hope for a random mesoscale accident somewhere or the caprock pulling a rabbit out of its hat with upper 50s/low 60s dews but other than that. I don't think next week will be the dream tornado pattern we were once hoping for. Beyond that things still look to improve so Im overall optimistic, I just think we'll have to wait a little bit longer.
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I agree. Will likely stay put until at least mid-May
 
We will be flying to Denver May 8th and have 14 days net for chasing. SPC is now mentioning the possibility of zonal flow through next weekend. I hope we will see a return to western troughing by the time we arrive. By Thursday next week I might start to believe what GFS and ECMWF show for the time of our arrival.
 
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We also fly on may 8th to Dallas and have 15 Days for chase :) i think we will See a few good chase Days... After 10 May looks better!
 
Welcome to the Great Plains (last 2 posts). Week of May 6 might try 1-3 days. It's not great, including possible non-Plains, but it's not dead either. ECMWF is not as ugly as the GFS.

I believe sometime during the week of May 13 it'll perk up in the Plains. ERTAF talks mid-week, but nobody can time it. Awaiting the next favorable MJO signal. Weekly models also become slightly more favorable that period. Hopefully the ECMWF weeklies hold (22Z today/Mon).
 
Still very impressed with the period of about May 12 onward, give or take a day or two. Don't really care about seeing insane troughs at this point, as once the dryline sets up in the west (as models have been consistent with) there is potential each day as small disturbances in the modest flow could generate isolated storms. Although it's still too early to start drooling, this could be a classic dryline year, given the pattern of fewer strong fronts driving the moisture south, only to return too late for the next system. Nor is there any indication of the evil 700mb cap hurling a money wrench into the party ATM.
 
ECMWF ensembles and Weeklies look fine mid May. The 11-15 day does not show classic southwest flow. However it does not show death ridge or SE trough either. Systems are forecast per 500 mb spaghetti plots and surface lows from individual members. Flow is choppy somewhat zonal, not bad mid-May. ERTAF might nail it with Average. Note the climo is good.

Weeklies go on to keep it active the week of May 13. CFS Dashboard (Chiclets) want to get things going around May 12 again, this after the week 2 action shown. Much of it has issues because it's not classic southwest flow outbreak. However in mid-May one has to think tornadoes will happen. Especially by May 15 climo ramps up; so, it only takes an average pattern to be good.
 
One week out until we arrive. With the latest GFS 12Z run coming in, I am getting increasingly confident that we will at least not see a stout blocking pattern. It seems that the gulf remains open and there in no crashing coldfront in sight atm. Everything else remains to be seen in the next couple of days.
 
I think the NHEM pattern is coming together for a pretty outstanding May for severe convective storms in the US (especially in comparison to the last few years!). While the first two weeks should see activity biased to the southern Plains, large areas of negative OLR anomalies have been showing up due to twin hemisphere cyclones since ~ April 20th. Should this turn into an active MJO and propagate across the Maritime Continent, it would have mouth watering for the back half of May. I am assuming we will introduce a week 3 'AA' via ERTAF this coming Sunday...
 
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