Warren Faidley
Supporter
The first week in May is looking increasingly interesting with multiple day set-ups and forecast soundings hinting of at least one PDS set-up.
State of the Chase Season: 2019
- Thread starter chrisbray
- Start date
Andy Wehrle
EF5
#getpumped
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Oh, hell...why not. It's a long way out but we're all dreamers. (GFS - 18z run - 5-01-19 at 00Z - NW of OKC).
Bill Hark
EF5
Agreed Warren! I was just looking at the 18Z GFS, and I'm quite impressed with central Plains chase opportunities for next week. There is decent potential from Monday and continuing for almost a week. Of course, the details are to be worked out and the model output will likely change. I cannot come out at this time, but good luck to those who can make it out.
Dan Robinson
EF5
The Euro is not quite on board yet with the multi-day fun, with the first wave sending a cold front to a Texarkana/San Antonio line. That being said, it does show at least one good day before that. If the aforementioned front can stall out and come back north quickly, we'll be in business. Cautiously optimistic for a chase trip!
Quincy Vagell
EF4
It's still early. The Euro isn't overly excited about next week, but it's the end of April/beginning of May anyway. Climo says that the season is starting to ramp up, but it's fairly common to see more down days than big days in the first week of May. If you look at the past 10-15 years, most years have a lull in early May. It's not until at least mid-May that most years tend to start consistently performing. The year 2011 may be one of the best examples. That year was historically active in April, but then things shut down until the second half of May.
Overall, we've had a fairly quiet year so far in the Plains, but we're not that far off from climatology. Note that early season events in the Plains skew the averages, as big events in April are outliers. Dixie has had most of the tornadoes so far, as one would expect.
I can't think of too many years in recent memory in which the season started off busy (late April/early May) and stayed busy, aside from 2008. That almost happened again in 2009, but that year ended up being quieter than usual from mid-May through early June, which is the typical peak of the season. 2007 was very active to start May, but from May week 2 through the rest of the spring and summer, tornado counts were below average. 2013, 16 and 17 all heated up, but as you'll notice from tornado counts, their big increase wasn't until the middle of May.
Since Dodge City is one of the favorite spots for many chasers, here is their tornado climatology chart via SPC:
But hey, I get it. Even if the early season isn't very active, chasers expect at least a few Plains chases in April and early May. This year has delivered a few of those opportunities and should feature at least one or two more in the next 7-10 days.
Overall, we've had a fairly quiet year so far in the Plains, but we're not that far off from climatology. Note that early season events in the Plains skew the averages, as big events in April are outliers. Dixie has had most of the tornadoes so far, as one would expect.
I can't think of too many years in recent memory in which the season started off busy (late April/early May) and stayed busy, aside from 2008. That almost happened again in 2009, but that year ended up being quieter than usual from mid-May through early June, which is the typical peak of the season. 2007 was very active to start May, but from May week 2 through the rest of the spring and summer, tornado counts were below average. 2013, 16 and 17 all heated up, but as you'll notice from tornado counts, their big increase wasn't until the middle of May.
Since Dodge City is one of the favorite spots for many chasers, here is their tornado climatology chart via SPC:
But hey, I get it. Even if the early season isn't very active, chasers expect at least a few Plains chases in April and early May. This year has delivered a few of those opportunities and should feature at least one or two more in the next 7-10 days.
Jeff House
Supporter
Quincy post above is spot on. I'm rooting for a few people who had to go out there early. At the same time I believe the peak will be inline with mid-late May climo. If the current MJO wave passes through, we should be able to get another on its tail with falling AAM. Yes please!
V. Gensini
EF1
Hold on everyone, fun times ahead! 
JamesCaruso
Staff member
The optimistic view of the most recent posts is at odds with the ERTAF, which shows Below Average for next week. That forecast was from Sunday 4/21, have things changed that much since then, and if so isn’t it too soon to consider it a model trend?
Looking at the individual runs, the GFS definitely went to crap for this Sunday/Monday compared to multiple runs that were good up to a couple of days ago. Euro had 60s dews/high CAPE up into Kansas on Sunday, and that's been pushed south quite a bit on last night's run, which is more in line with the change the GFS showed. I've gone back to being pessimistic for at least the near term. Maybe it will end up being more towards mid May before it gets consistently better.
Jeff House
Supporter
Charts above are in line with optimism starting around May 15, or May 12 at the earliest. No concerns for mid-late May vacations.
I wish all the best next week but I'll sit out. Could be decent local days, but fighting CF issues and trying to get dews west of I-35.
I wish all the best next week but I'll sit out. Could be decent local days, but fighting CF issues and trying to get dews west of I-35.
Marshall Stoner
EF1
It's still out in fantasy land, but the GFS has been showing the PV currently just west of Greenland eventually retrograding towards Alaska by the 5th.
Joshua Nall
EF4
For several days now I have been looking at SW flow over the southern plains with forecast environment decent for supercells next week. That's about all it takes to get me excited for my first multi day trip of the year. It's just picking what days. May end up in TX each day. I have had some great times interacting with storms under weaker flow aloft.
Braxton Banks
Enthusiast
Posted this on the StormTrack Forums Discord, but posting this here as well.
Since we recently hit Weather Watch #100 for 2019, here's when the Storm Prediction Center issued Weather Watch #100 per year since 2001.
2001: April 6th (TOR)
2002: April 16th (SVR)
2003: April 6th (SVR)
2004: April 21st (SVR)
2005: March 27th (TOR)
2006: March 19th (SVR)
2007: March 31st (TOR)
2008: March 4th (SVR) <--- Earliest occurrence in time period
2009: April 1st (SVR)
2010: April 24th (TOR)
2011: April 5th (TOR)
2012: March 22nd (TOR)
2013: April 11th (TOR)
2014: April 27th (PDS TOR)
2015: April 24th (TOR)
2016: April 21st (SVR)
2017: March 29th (TOR)
2018: May 17th (SVR) <---- Latest occurrence in time period
2019: April 24th (TOR)
Since we recently hit Weather Watch #100 for 2019, here's when the Storm Prediction Center issued Weather Watch #100 per year since 2001.
2001: April 6th (TOR)
2002: April 16th (SVR)
2003: April 6th (SVR)
2004: April 21st (SVR)
2005: March 27th (TOR)
2006: March 19th (SVR)
2007: March 31st (TOR)
2008: March 4th (SVR) <--- Earliest occurrence in time period
2009: April 1st (SVR)
2010: April 24th (TOR)
2011: April 5th (TOR)
2012: March 22nd (TOR)
2013: April 11th (TOR)
2014: April 27th (PDS TOR)
2015: April 24th (TOR)
2016: April 21st (SVR)
2017: March 29th (TOR)
2018: May 17th (SVR) <---- Latest occurrence in time period
2019: April 24th (TOR)
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I won't re-post the graphic, but the last couple of CFS runs show most of May into early June as quite busy. We will see, but there are multiple indications of a busy May.
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