Jeff House
Supporter
Appears that starting Thursday the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest should get more active. I know this pushed back a few days from previous predictions, but it sometimes goes that way and eventually still verifies.
SPC already has a 15% for Thursday. Depending on timing it could include points a little farther west by then. At any rate flow starts to increase over the Plains. By Friday a true trough is coming out with a solid LLJ response. Too early to place a threat area, but I figure Friday is a chase day somewhere.
Saturday and Sunday get even harder to pick an area; however, modest to moderate flow remains over the Heartland. LLJ votes are mixed across models and runs, but LLJ should respond at least one day.
Then another trough is forecast into the Northwest next week. Have to manage expectations though. Pac NW troughs are somewhat common this time of year. The key is getting it to come across again. Forecast Great Lakes ridge should allow, unless that ridge is west of progged.
SPC already has a 15% for Thursday. Depending on timing it could include points a little farther west by then. At any rate flow starts to increase over the Plains. By Friday a true trough is coming out with a solid LLJ response. Too early to place a threat area, but I figure Friday is a chase day somewhere.
Saturday and Sunday get even harder to pick an area; however, modest to moderate flow remains over the Heartland. LLJ votes are mixed across models and runs, but LLJ should respond at least one day.
Then another trough is forecast into the Northwest next week. Have to manage expectations though. Pac NW troughs are somewhat common this time of year. The key is getting it to come across again. Forecast Great Lakes ridge should allow, unless that ridge is west of progged.
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