State of the Chase Season: 2019

[Jeff House]

Appears that starting Thursday the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest should get more active. I know this pushed back a few days from previous predictions, but it sometimes goes that way and eventually still verifies.

SPC already has a 15% for Thursday. Depending on timing it could include points a little farther west by then. At any rate flow starts to increase over the Plains. By Friday a true trough is coming out with a solid LLJ response. Too early to place a threat area, but I figure Friday is a chase day somewhere.

Saturday and Sunday get even harder to pick an area; however, modest to moderate flow remains over the Heartland. LLJ votes are mixed across models and runs, but LLJ should respond at least one day.

Then another trough is forecast into the Northwest next week. Have to manage expectations though. Pac NW troughs are somewhat common this time of year. The key is getting it to come across again. Forecast Great Lakes ridge should allow, unless that ridge is west of progged.

 

[Dean Baron]

Friday sure has potential over a fairly large area (at least per the 12z NAM). But it looks to be a boom or bust with warm H7 temps and a lack of better forcing.

The pattern looks to stay active in the northern plains for the following week or so. Nothing screams outbreak this far out but there should be quite a few decent setups.

 

[Jeff House]

Monday Sept 23 for Sat/Mon Sept 28/30: ECMWF model has been more bullish than the GFS and current SPC 4-8 day. GFS is all cold front junk. Euro, in contrast, introduces WF / OFB action Saturday and Monday. Short waves are progged with LLJ response and adequate moisture. Little early to dissect VBV or not. Something to watch.