State of the Chase Season: 2019
- Thread starter chrisbray
- Start date
Dan Robinson
EF5
Jeff, agreed. No real change in the medium range operational runs and ensembles. Pesky southern stream too far south remains with Dixie taking most of the action. Better chances for pooling to eke something out in the Plains as we head into May, but odds are against it. I don't see an April 2019 chase trip in the Plains in my future.
Quincy Vagell
EF4
I don't really see much on the horizon through the end of April. Sunday looks similar in some ways to 4/10/19 in Kansas/Nebraska. You could see one elevated supercell around sunset with hail, but otherwise the environment is lacking better low-level moisture and sufficient daytime heating to erode the cap along much/most of the dryline.
The last week of April tends to see at least one higher-end event in Dixie in most seasons. This year could do the same, but it's very unlikely that any such event would take place in the Plains or Midwest, based on model projections. Save efforts for May. I'd rather see late season light up than early season, but that's just me.
The last week of April tends to see at least one higher-end event in Dixie in most seasons. This year could do the same, but it's very unlikely that any such event would take place in the Plains or Midwest, based on model projections. Save efforts for May. I'd rather see late season light up than early season, but that's just me.
Matthew Crowther
EF3
Looks quite grim the next 2-3 weeks, the CFSv2 is really horrible with a big western ridge.
Devin Pitts
EF2
Perfectly fine getting the ridging out of the way in this time frame rather than in peak season. Highly unlikely it manages to stick around into peak season, especially given the current ENSO situation.
Paul Knightley
EF5
I recall looking at the various models ahead of our chasecation last May (we flew over from the UK on May 21st) - and it looked fairly mediocre...and the pattern didn't get 'great' at all - but then we had tornadoes on May 27th/28th - saw several other great storms, and had a cool time...so, although I do follow the pattern on the lead-up, I try to be less bothered by how it looks! (which is much easier to say than do!).
A crumb of comfort is that models are poor at longer range - and this time of year presents even more challenges than earlier in the year.
A crumb of comfort is that models are poor at longer range - and this time of year presents even more challenges than earlier in the year.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Exactly. As poor as last year was, one could have seen tornados on three consecutive days (Wyoming, the Colorado landspouts, and then near Dodge City). I missed all three, but the opportunities were there.
Last year I kept delaying my trip until it looked good, and then suddenly realized I no longer even had a full two weeks left available on my calendar. So I rushed out there for that first day of potential activity, which was Wyoming day. That hadn’t even looked all that great initially, and then on the day of, I was flying into Denver. I think having less time to do analysis that morning, and having to make a quick decision while on the road leading out of Denver (whether to head north toward Cheyenne or east toward an eastern Colorado target) contributed to a poor targeting decision.
This year I am somewhat relieved to *not* have flexibility and be locked in to the period 5/24-6/8. A little later than I’d like, so I’m actually happy to see that the season does not appear to be headed for an early peak. And this means less agonizing over the models to try and time a perfect trip. It’s going to be that two weeks for me, for better or for worse.
Marshall Stoner
EF1
If the GFS is to be believed, end of April at least looks persistently stormy for the upper Midwest after the last southern stream low over the SE kicks out. It might primarily be just a heavy rain / flooding threat with zonal jet and a lot of repeat MCS activity north of the boundary, but there will definitely be shear if convection does occur in the warm sector at times. There's no signal for a classic plains type outbreak any time soon though.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
As May 1st. approaches, I tend to watch how models are handling moisture values in the Plains. Right now, the GFS has been holding positive (entrenched) dew point values of 60+ from the eastern Texas Panhandle northward through Kansas -- without any Gulf disruptions. This is generally a good sign. 
Paul Knightley
EF5
As May 1st. approaches, I tend to watch how models are handling moisture values in the Plains. Right now, the GFS has been holding positive (entrenched) dew point values of 60+ from the eastern Texas Panhandle northward through Kansas -- without any Gulf disruptions. This is generally a good sign.
If I've learned anything about the longer-range crystal-ball gazing as my chasecation time approaches each year, it's that if there are no (or just a few) cold front 'scours' down to the Gulf in the first couple of weeks of May, then there could be some good chasing to be had later in May. Even modest troughs in late May will give some great action when moisture is around.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Yeah, last year the generally anemic flow pattern didn't help but it was the unrelenting moisture issues that were the real nail in the coffin for the chase season that wasn't.
Jeff House
Supporter
Situation has perked up a bit over the weekend. EPS looks decent for week 2. However split flow risks are noted. Southern stream could disrupt. Tough to get northern stream super juicy just yet.
Weeks 3-4 look interesting. Japan's Himarwari satellite loops show West Pac convection is gradually decreasing; but, it's still there. Indian Ocean in flaring up with climo. ERTAF seems to go with a fast progression; West Pac convection races east. Either way, they note positive developments for weeks 3-4.
I'm more of a satellite forecaster than an index forecaster. I like what's going on for results in a few weeks. Could start as early s the 11-15 day period. Hopefully lasts through the 16-30 day.
At least one energy vendor has a nice pattern going into mid-May. One can infer the 200/500 mb from the temp charts; and, it's southwest flow over the Great Plains.
Weeks 3-4 look interesting. Japan's Himarwari satellite loops show West Pac convection is gradually decreasing; but, it's still there. Indian Ocean in flaring up with climo. ERTAF seems to go with a fast progression; West Pac convection races east. Either way, they note positive developments for weeks 3-4.
I'm more of a satellite forecaster than an index forecaster. I like what's going on for results in a few weeks. Could start as early s the 11-15 day period. Hopefully lasts through the 16-30 day.
At least one energy vendor has a nice pattern going into mid-May. One can infer the 200/500 mb from the temp charts; and, it's southwest flow over the Great Plains.
Dan Robinson
EF5
Nice improvement on the GEFS ensembles heading into May 1 with long-term western troughing parked in place. Would mean multi-day events and maybe some big days with periodic shortwave ejections. Let's hope that can hold.
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Greg McLaughlin
EF5
Perhaps the season is about to kick into full gear. Starting to see a more consistent signal for western troughing. After this week it appears the GOM will finally be open for business.
Devin Pitts
EF2
The Jet Extension over the Pacific is really starting to come into focus now on the EPS, should lead to some fun times ahead!
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