Southwestern Monsoon 2024

[James K]

Last thursday evening, got another storm (again nothing big, as is pretty typical here), but it was a fairly nice lightning-producer... and it gave around 1/3" of rain.
Each afternoon/evening after that we've had little thundershowers move through.. the type where you hear a few rumbles of thunder & get some light rain.
Haven't needed to water the lawn or garden.

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A few frame-grabs from one of the videos recorded on Tuesday's 2nd round of storms...

 

[Dave C]

What Warren said about the relative lack of lightning in AZ a few posts up has also been the case in southern Colorado. Yesterday was a good example - pretty widespread storms, but very little in the way of CG lightning, particularly anything photo-worthy.

The lack of lightning continues. I am down in AZ for a bit and have barely seen any, despite a lot of storms that look otherwise normal. It's beyond me what is going on parameter wise to make the difference, other than perhaps slightly drier and weaker updrafts. I have been watching echo tops often and it seems by inspection that they are often lower this year. I haven't done a robust comparison to prove that speculation. While mountain and rim lightning is a given every year in AZ, a lot of lower areas are just awful this year with very few of those big branching bolts that often occur this time of year when rain shafts meet that baking dry air. Chasing the mountain stuff is incredibly challenging if you don't live there since the storms die before you can reach them.

Case in point of CG busts: last week on the Tuesday that was supposed to be promising in AZ, there was almost no bolts on any of the storms, complete dud unless you were in Tucson. Then on the next night, a night nothing was forecast, a few flashes started just to my south in Phoenix area. I raced out for a ten minute drive to the cell, and only caught this one decent bolt before they stopped almost like a switch had turned off lightning mode.


Last night had very consistent CAMs that the Grand Canyon would see storms at dark, and it did. I watched a cell popup and dump rain right in the Canyon and blow strong outlfow with dust all over, but not a single bolt near the Canyon, while the horizon was lit up with distant storms near Ashfork, Williams, Kingman, etc. The last time I saw a storm on that Grand Canyon track was in 2016 when I was treated to the most mind boggling CG display of my life near the east entrance. At least if you bust at the Grand Canyon, you are still at a cool spot:

 

[William Monfredo]

...what is going on parameter wise to make the difference, other than perhaps slightly drier and weaker updrafts.

I've enjoyed your Grand Canyon pics, and what a great place to live, visit, hike, & photograph.
With respect to lightning, there may well be more than just ice-crystal production, maintenance, and positioning at the top of the cloud as a factor.
I was "shocked" (pun intended) when I found out some years ago that the sun's cosmic rays (of all things) play a crucial role in lightning strikes!
I listened & viewed a presentation in Tucson about people who got struck by lightning, and oddly enough, cosmic rays were implicated.

 

[William Monfredo]

Speaking of Grand Canyon, AZ...
The interior canyon at Havasupai Reservation experienced severe flash-flooding on Thursday, August 22nd.
One to two inches of rain fell in 60-90 minutes, and while no strangers to flooding there, the trails to & from washed out.
A tourist-woman slipped in the Havasu Creek area and got swept into the Colorado River afterwards and was later found dead.
I feel for people who take their time and money to go on a vacation, and it ends up in tragedy with slipping, rockslides, flooding, heat.
Over 100 tourists and Havasupais received airlifts out of the canyon back to the top thanks to AZ National Guard and Blackhawk choppers.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Interesting set-up and soundings showing up for Monday (9-16-24) in central, Arizona, with tropical RH moving northward and a system moving in from the Pacific. Potential and locations are bouncing back and forth between model runs, but something to watch.