Southwestern Monsoon 2024

[Warren Faidley]

Models are suggesting a typical start to the monsoon late this week (20th+).

Typical low quality action initially with increasing chances by the weekend+. Likely a few wildfire starts in the mountains.

The upper-level steering winds do not seem to be favorable for organized haboobs, although it's possible a few outflows could consolidate given inverted-V soundings with strong down drafting. The ground is bone dry, so it will not take a lot to kick up some dust.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Monsoon surge on the way! If the models verify, the SW monsoon will literally appear like magic on Thursday. Unlike most seasons, there will be no slow, daily build-up to decent storms. Lightning and high winds / dust will be main hazards initially. Although 500mb steering winds do not appear to be super favorable for classic, E to W moving haboobs, if the timing is right and enough outflows can consolidate, then who knows. These initial storms are likely my favorite to chase, as the dust is primed and unmolested. The lightning can also be more artsy because the storms are more isolated and compact (from lack of heavy precipitation).

 

[James K]

I'm guessing the bit of rain we got here last Thurs was this surge you mentioned.

Looking forward to monsoon season when/if it truly sets up & makes it here..
Hopeing for some good lightning shows this year (first & foremost)
But also hope to see some decent rain (as a secondary thing) .. its getting pretty dry here.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Not sure how much of a haboob season we are going to have, at least for the big ones. The upper level winds have been very uncooperative. Lots of storms and rain, but not the usual set-up. Storms popping up everywhere and moving to the north. You need easterly flow in the upper levels to move organized storms west / NW over the dry regions between TUS and PHX. By the time the winds shift to this more seasonal direction, the desert floors may be stabilized and not all that receptive to lifting dust. We will see.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Monsoon Madness? Going to be watching this coming Sunday (6-30) as a **potentially** higher-ended monsoon day w/some haboob potential, along with the usual trouble makers.

Things to watch: Easterly wave w/ 500mb winds moving storms from the E/SE to W/NW. Multiple convective reflectivity models suggests a favorable S-to-N line of cells at peak heating. LI's in the -4/-5 range, SVR sounding parameters, favorable inverted V soundings with DCAPES > 1,600.


Timing and alignment of downdrafts is always a roll of the dice. Big, hairy monkey wrenches will be: how much today's and tomorrow's precipitation stabilizes things and if debris clouds on Sunday AM will inhibit strong convection. There has been some cementing and greening of the dust beds and deserts between TUS and PHX, so I'm not sure if the dust potential will sneeze or choke. Stay tuned!

 

[James K]

It'll never actually happen, I'd love to see one of those dust storms in person...
Close enough to have a nice overall view of the approaching 'wall of dust', but far enough that I can easily get away from it / not end up inside it.

As far as monsoon season itself .. where I am, I'm starting to wonder if it'll be a dud here this year. The overall lack of thundershowers/thunderstorms (really for their lightning-shows) so far this year has been pretty disappointing. Maybe when monsoon season sets up, that will change, but starting to doubt it...

 

[Warren Faidley]

Likely not going to happen this year, unless there is a week of solid drying or outflows find some undisturbed ground. I suppose if you had a really strong outflow from a line of severe storms, it's still possible. The soil RH is high for this time of year and yesterday I checked the dust beds. Most are firmly cemented and greening is occurring. I witnessed several very strong outflows that kicked up zero dust.

 

[James K]

Too bad.. I was hopeing you would be able to catch something good.

 

[Warren Faidley]

There has been several days of 105+ ºF heating over the deserts and the surfaces have almost completely dried. Some greening and cementing, but I'm assuming there is some natural "dust recovery." Looking like the next chance will occur on Tuesday / Wednesday time frame. Always interesting to watch these reloading days after a dry hot spell, as they can often bring in some higher-ended monsoon activity, including isolated thunderheads and dust storms.

 

[James K]

What are your thoughts on the monsoon in general .. in particular making it up to the central/northern part of CO & east side of the mountains?
So far its been a complete dud where I am this year & I really don't see much change .. unless the current high/ridge setup breaks down or atleast weakens.

Drought is returning, and I really wasn't surprised when wildfires started popping up around here.
We really need some rain along this side of the mountains.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looking like normal monsoon activity over the weekend (8- 3&4) then maybe some higher-ended activity next weak as the models are showing a few embedded disturbances in the flow. (Easterly waves). There has been a noticeable lack of sustained lightning in SE Arizona this year. Not completely sure why this occurs, but I believe the short duration of cell life due to a lack of instability is part of the problem. This is also the reason we have had sub-par haboobs this year. Anvil shading (loss of surface heating) and the absence of easterly waves this year might be the cause. Big haboobs require a line of organized, moving cells, surviving long enough to produce continuous outflow.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looking like a potentially big day here in SE Arizona. (8-6-24). Not a lot of negatives to funk things up. DCAPES of 1,500-1,900 and SB CAPES in the order of 1,500 to 2k. Nice effective bulk shear of 20-30kt with a strong easterly flow that should keep updrafts sustained, allowing the possibility of organized outflows.

 

[James K]

Big haboobs require a line of organized, moving cells, surviving long enough to produce continuous outflow.

Interesting. so its more of a linear/QLCS driven thing than a supercell?

Looking like a potentially big day here in SE Arizona. (8-6-24).

Did it verify? did you get any good photos/video

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We've had some little rains the last 3 evenings (and a pretty dang nice lightning show from a small thundershower cell tonight. I needed that, the lack of lightning this summer has been disappointing)
Forecasts haven't said anything about this being monsoon, just increased moisture... but looks like it might be starting to make it up this far, especially starting thursday. I'm looking forward to it, and I'm sure the firefighters are too.

 

[John Farley]

What Warren said about the relative lack of lightning in AZ a few posts up has also been the case in southern Colorado. Yesterday was a good example - pretty widespread storms, but very little in the way of CG lightning, particularly anything photo-worthy.

 

[James K]

What Warren said about the relative lack of lightning in AZ a few posts up has also been the case in southern Colorado. Yesterday was a good example - pretty widespread storms, but very little in the way of CG lightning, particularly anything photo-worthy.

Been the pretty much the same thing where I am in CO as well, since late spring.

Yesterday afternoon/evening there were small cells with a little bit of lightning including a few CG's. The type of "storm" that would normally be hardly be worth watching...
But on the way home I stopped in a local park, went on a small hill, sat & watched for awhile anyway (& videoed) ... just because there's been such a lack of anything this season.

Then just after sunset while it was still partially light out, another round fired up. Again smaller cells/"storms", but this time they put off a impressive lightning show for what they were. Quite a few nice CG's & strikes across the cloud, and ontop of that just about the perfect viewing distance away. This one made it *well worth* going up & sitting on a roof to watch! Haven't gone through the video yet, but shoulda got some good strikes if it turned out.