Severe chances late next week.

ECMWF has been pretty consistent in taking it through the northern plains on Sunday. I think the nam there is in the process of cutting it off. I'm buying into the ecmwf the most.

Thursday looking interesting in eastern SD now too. Then again knowing how the nam is, I'm sure one can chop 15 knots off that 500 flow, back it a bit and angle the surface boundary more sw-ne...and essentially turn it to crap by then. It's sort of got that written all over it.
 
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Sure would like to see previous runs of the European verify as it's had it working through the Dakotas strong and with a really nice negative tilt; however as consistent as its been, the GFS has been similarly consistent in cutting it off over the far SW CA. Finally it appears the two may be working towards a similar solution as per latest runs both have it cut off over CA on Friday, before they including the GFS have it rapidly ejecting North East on Sunday. Both now bring it through quite quick and pretty far North. Its worth noting that while its only forecasting through Friday the NAM is in pretty good agreement with the European and the GFS as well through that time with it cut off over CA.
 
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"WRF... so hot right now!" -Mugatu

Actually the latest run cuts off the low as the GFS did. BUT, there are a couple of impules that will ride the jet and make for an interesting next two days towards the canadian border. Western ND on Wednesday and Northern MN on Thursday could be interesting if the moisture can rebound behind this cold front.
 
Interesting tid-bit from the San Diego NWS:

"A STRONG STORM FOR SEPTEMBER MAY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WEATHER VERY RARELY SEEN IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN SEPTEMBER. THIS COULD BE THE STRONGEST MID LATITUDE SEPTEMBER STORM FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN AROUND 20 YEARS. SEPTEMBER STORMS WITH SOME SIMILARITY TO THIS STORM OCCURRED IN 1986 AND IN 1963...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR SEPTEMBER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN FOR SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TORNADOES OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS."
 
Anyone have any thoughts to what may be setting up over the Plains States next Monday or Tuesday???

I know its rather far out and iffy, but atleast it appears to be a bit of a change and warm temps and humidity building in front of a trough and system digging into the Western States.
 
 
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