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Severe chances late next week.

David Draun

David Draun

EF5
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
1,143
Location
Mt Prospect, IL
Looking at the GFS, it shows huge Plains ridge by midweek, and likely some really warm temperatures with it. But right behind that thing is a strong, deep 500mb trough digging all the way to Baja California. Now this is a ways out, but I think it bears watching. Time for some big Autumn storms!
 
Could this be the first 2nd season system?

nam_500_60h.gif
 
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Maybe - but I guarantee it won't be the last time that someone posts a one hundred and freaking eighty hour map and puts any value in it... At least use ensembles, or a model with skill at that range (ECMWF) :)
 
It is to early to tell and any forecast now would sound like wishcasting but if it looks like we will have a good chance for severe weather closer to the time frame how many people here would be out chasing and how many people actually chase in the fall? I know many plan chase vacations for spring and do not always have the money for several chases so I am curious how many people do chase in the fall?
 
From the WGN Weather Blog, the amplitude of this upcoming system is being influenced by the remenants of Typhoon Fitow:
Click to expand...

Interesting.... if you'll all recall last year's Sept 16th tornadoes in SD and MN where influenced by the remnants of Typhoon Ioke. Now Ioke was a cat 5 at one point in it's life whereas Fitow only reached cat 2 but still it bears watching.
 
I've been watching this for awhile and I'm really hoping this one pans out! After last year's Sept 16 chase that went down in my book as my most memorable chase. I am really hoping for an encore performance by the atmosphere. :) Lets keep our fingers crossed.
 
I too have been watching the Long Range Solutions for quite some time, and while obvious changes have occurred in both timing strength and location, all model solutions have been hinting at a significant trough for quite some time. We are begining to approach the time where I feel some faith can be put into general location and strength of the troughs, considering We are now approaching less then 100 hrs from the initial trough reaching the W Coast, although from there timing really is up in the air. I am always optimistic though and will look at what ever is good in the models until I am forced to stop ignoring the negatives. Any way you put it, it very much appears as though the plains will experience strong SW flow and good southerly LL flow for an extended period of time, hopefully that trough forecast to push through Monday/Tuesday will not push a cold front to far south and scour away parameters before the primary trough later in the week current indications are it lifts back N as a WF but that is getting quite deatiled so far out. Heres to a week of wait and see!!
 
Certainly looks like things may finally swing into a deep sustained sw flow pattern. Timing is an obvious key to all of this...but it is time to ponder digging out the equipment tucked away 3 months ago. It won't be long before we see some chases out on the Plains. Need to get closer in before becoming too wildly pumped about things. A Sept. 16th event would indeed be nice though Michael - for sure.
 
MatthewCarman said:
It is to early to tell and any forecast now would sound like wishcasting but if it looks like we will have a good chance for severe weather closer to the time frame how many people here would be out chasing and how many people actually chase in the fall? I know many plan chase vacations for spring and do not always have the money for several chases so I am curious how many people do chase in the fall?
Click to expand...

If the models still show high confidence in the magnitude and timing of the trough for next week, it wouldn't take much more to entice me to take the drive.

Lincoln, NE is only ten hours from here, and the weather up here has been crap for the last ten days. Throw in the fact that there won't be 85+ temps the whole journey, and a fall chase sounds like a sweet deal.

If this unfolds with promise, I might be looking to hook up with someone more experienced. If anyone's game, by all means drop me a PM.


John Hudson
www.skywatch7.com
 
I have been looking for a while myself.. Looks to hold some promise, with southerly flow finally setting up.

Anything is welcome here since have had nothing but see texts and no organized wording lately it seems.. And we are talking about frost this weekend!
 
How about early next week? Monday looking interesting on the nam. Getting good dewpoints in place may be a challenge.
 
Yeah I have been noticing the GFS has been pointing to that wave for quite some time, now that the NAM is in Range it really points towards a possible chase, 50kt H5 wave with a 50kt LLJ, DP's forecast to climb back up towards 70 wrapping all the way N of the 995mb low, it points at it pulling up a decent dry punch as well, definitly has sparked my interest.
 
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