New chase case#5

[Verne Carlson]

Am liking where I am in Oakley, KS but would like to drift west a little to Sharon Springs, KS to intercept the developing line coming out of eastern CO - looks like show time!

 

[Derek Weston]

Seeing that things will apparently initiate a bit further west, I'll leave Medicine Lodge Kansas... planning to at least hit Liberal, and adjust from there. Waiting for towers, watching the satellite... Don't want to get too far west... yet. (still have the feeling I'll need to get further south yet into Oklahoma, however)

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

Made it up 28 to I-70 and now pushing west at a fair clip to hopefully intercept in time. About an hour away and feeling fairly good about it.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm leaving Phillipsburg and setting my sights on the cell that's going up near Almena and heading toward Nebraska. I'll see how things play out from there. I think the prospects are very good with the dryline, but I want to give the warm front a chance to show its stuff. Plenty of daylight to work with, so I'm going to play things by ear, and if I need to, I can blast west or southwest. Right now, though, this little cell is all by itself in a good environment.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

I was busy all day Saturday and most of today--I just now saw the Post-and its 10 pages deep--My first thought when I looked at the first set of data was to have headed for Shamrock,Tx--as I would be based in Kenesaw, Ne, and with the data I see now in total so far-0I will just move up and over the Grand island and sit as see what is next--sorry to have missed the fun so far

 

[Corey Sloan]

READJUSTED TARGET: Pratt, KS

I think I am a little to far north and little to far west on this one sitting in Ness City....going to head from Ness City, KS to Pratt, KS to check data. Road structure is a little better around Pratt to go in any direction.

Wind fields, overall thermal profiles, Dp's, positon of the ULL and dryline are all good signs for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak in western KS and NW OK...IMO this is a high moderate or even high risk day in this area(hatched area for tornadoes in SW KS, NW OK and possibly into the TX panhandle)....I believe the cap (due to estimated CAPE values and convergance along the dryline) will break but it is a guess without 700mb temps and other surface OBS....Supercells appear definite with the potential for several strong, long track tornadoes....just hope I am not shooting myself in the foot by moving to early....but with the CU fields on vis sat forming and current radar imagery......I feel it is prudent to move south and east just a bit....will see tomorrow if this is a rookie forecasting mistake!!!!

 

[Paul Austin]

18z Positioning

18z:

I love the agitated cu from SC/SW NE down to the SW TX panhandle. At the same time, the large geographical area covered makes pinpointing an adjustment target difficult. The dry line certainly seems to be well defined all the way down to SE NM with decent convergence along the boundary, which raises the question of cap strength. From the soundings, ample CAPE will likely erode the cap from DDC southward to at least AMA. The warm front in NW KS looks favorable as well with backed surface winds, warm surface temps NE of the surface low, and likely cooler air aloft. Surface convergence and directional wind shear are maximized in this area with nicely backed surface winds.

Decisions, decisions…again I am tempted to stay put and see what unfolds to my north and south. I am less than 2 hours drive from I70 at Wakeeney, KS and about 4 hours drive from Pampa, TX. Unfortunately, my nowcaster will only give me updates about every six hours, and I guess my windows are fogged, because I can’t make local visual observations to help make a decision I’m tempted to make a run for the warm front, but I’d like to catch a storm from initiation on, so I’m going to hope for a nice discrete cell (owing to a stronger cap) to pop along the northern end of the dry line and move N/NNE toward those nice backing surface winds. Hopefully, I don’t get left behind as the storm tornados and drops a fat wedge further north in KS. If so, maybe Marc will be in position...and laugh at my forecasting buffooonery.

 

[Paul Austin]

Jogging NE a bit towards liberal, KS

A quick pit stop, some gas station ham sandwiches and a reload of code red Mt dew. I may sit here for a bit before a potential shift to the north.

Yes, the Liberal Inn...what a place to stay...its two-tiered hallways and central "yard" with overlooking "wall" make it the most like a prison of any place I've stayed, LOL. I love that place.

 

[Joel Wright]

Dammit I've been gone all day and missed the two updates. LOL, oh well.

Anyway, after looking at the 18z I left Dodge City and headed up the road to Garden City. After looking at the 21z I've decided to stay in Garden City. Already some very nice convection to the north over Nebraska near the WF. I still like the further destabalization going on over western Kansas with the sharpening dry line just west. Already some decent towers trying to go up.

Still plenty of time to scream north if I have to.

 

[Leah Robertson]

Wow, I'm really late on this one...

After one speeding ticket, two warnings, four Starbucks espressos, and seventeen pee-stops on I-40, I am finally shooting up Highway 83 towards Canadian, TX hoping for some dryline magic.

Before heading out the door in central NM earlier on in the day (only seeing the 12z data), I noticed the dynamics in the atmosphere were much stronger to the north of my target but due to getting off to a late start, I decided to play the southern target and right now, I'm really hoping the dryline will start surging eastward later on in the day providing some extra lift and breaking a relatively strong cap. There is adequate moisture and backing of the winds in the TX panhandle so that should help further aid supercell development.

In the meantime, I'll work on my schmexy watch tanline watching the TCU pulsing up and down to the west of my location and go from there.

*Goes to read the 18Z analysis.*

 

[Dean Baron]

I'm glad to see a couple more people thinking about Nebraska (my original target). I wish I could zoom in on the radar and also get some surface obs. which would help me decide whether to stay in north central Kansas or go after the Nebraska storms. Considering that the storms in Nebraska look clustered I may hold on to hope for something a little more discrete farther south but I better make up my mind soon with the storms in Nebraska moving away from me.

 

[Paul Austin]

21z Positioning

21z:


Well, this update doesn’t appear to favor my position at all. McCook, NE is much too far away for me to get anywhere near there. I considered racing west toward Holly, CO, but I think I would still be too far south. I’ve made my bed, so I think I’ll race down towards Perryton, TX southward to intercept any late bloomers near the towers forming along the dry line in the TX panhandle. I might miss the big show, but I’d rather not blue sky bust. Maybe I’ll get a decent structure storm...or a blue sky bust

Edit: Actually, those towers in NE TX look pretty nice, and if they get firmly rooted, could become nice right movers taking all the available juice from the surroundings. They appear to be lined up along a DL bulge, so maybe this doesn't look so bad. I don't think the cap will hold. I'll take anything discrete I can get on from SW KS to NE TX. I'll certainly be watching the skies en route to the Perryton, TX area.

 

[Marc Austin]

This is more nerve-racking than any of the other cases, which seemed to be more hit-or-miss. I'm confident that something can get going western KS. The timing is the issue. I suppose I have a few hours of daylight left. I'm going to backtrack to Oakley, KS and wait there for something more substantial to happen. I don't want to end up in Scott City with poor road options. I can always head south on 83 if something pops up in that area. I'm not expecting a complete bust. At the very least, I will get the line of cells moving into western KS later in the day or toward sunset. I sure hope something fires off around here.

 

[John Farley]

I am in late on this, but based on the 12Z data my initial target was Amarillo, TX. I was thinking I might end up drifting either west into far eastern NM or north into the OK panhandle. When I saw the 18Z data I was wishing I had instead headed for northeast KS, but having played my cards on the panhandle, it looked to me like the dryline had shfted well east of its 12Z location to near Amarillo, so i figured at 18Z that I would head east or northeast toward but probably not as far as Woodward, OK. By 21Z, I am hoping something will pop from the towers showing up on the radar between Amarillo and Woodward - that will be my play for this day - though I am still kind of wishing I had played the warm front in northeast KS or northwest MO instead.

 

[Paul Austin]

I'm out.

OK, I'm out on this one as well. I know the date and results. Something about the setup kept bringing me back to a certain date, but I wasn't sure. Funny, I was actually thinking of posting this date as a chase case myself. When I looked up the data, there it was, LOL.

I'll just PM what I know.