New chase case#5

[Leah Robertson]

Ugh. Looking at the 17Z sounding for AMA…Even though the lapse rate looks decent at the mid-levels, the winds are not nearly as backed as I was hoping over that region. I did notice the pressure falls over SE Colorado/NE New Mexico and am beginning to wonder if the winds will start backing more across SW Kansas. I dunno…the cap is just so strong over the Texas panhandle and most of the energy is north of there. Tough call. I know I’ll more than likely get burned in this decision but I’m going to go ahead and start heading north on Highway-83 closer to the pressure falls into the OK panhandle and possibly further north towards Liberal, KS.

Edit: Drat. I just looked at the 21Z data and saw the TCU near the location I originally was at. Well, at least it looks like the cap is about to break.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

Looks like some TCU with weak radar returns near Hugoton. I've already probably headed a little way north towards Garden City by now, but should these persist, I'll drop SW into this area. Initiation a bit earlier than expected which is nice. Could by quite a widespread outbreak if the entire dryline goes up!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Brief update: brief tornadoes reported in YUMA county, Co and 2 TORNADO ON GROUND SPOTTED IN FRONTIER COUNTY,Ne (around 21.50Z)

I will upload within 1 hour 00Z data.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Here is the new update: 00Z data. Other tornadoes are reported in SW Ne.
In Ks some towers are collapsing, then reforming,then collapsing;in Tx too cumulus are growing then collapsing. it's 00Z and no storms are in progress. Within few hours I will post the case.

 

[Matt Gingery]

No brainer! Hang out in OUN and wait for the dryline to come smashing in. As of 12 z it looks like a 15-17z event initiating from W Kansas down into N.Central Texas. El Reno is the tornado capital of the midwest and OUN offers alot of stuff to do while I wait. So Im headed to OKLAHOMA CITY!!!!!

 

[Matt Gingery]

No way I would play the warm front. I played that last year at the end of May and it ended up being a HP mess, there was brief action near Kearney NE. I would definately hang south for supercell development to play out into W Oklahoma and N. Central Texas. More visible tornado action from OKC to Lawton on into Texas.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Made it back to Oakley, and seeing the dryline well established from CO down into TX. The panhandle still looks capped, but the fact that I've done a driving tour of SW KS is not exactly filling me with confidence. I left Oakley and headed west on 40 to Sharon Springs to position just SE of the triple point. There is a line of cu coming up from the south and going to hold tight for now. I am fearing a big ol bust on this.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Its getting late and nothing has developed where I am at. I have slowly ventured northwest from Liberal, KS over the past few hours and now sit between Hugoton and Ulysses, KS on HWY 25. Towers are really trying to break the cap, however they have failed on every attempt so far. Satellite shows a mid-level wave arounding the base of trough and rotating into eastern Colorado attm. As a result, surface winds have begun to back in response to pressure falls with approaching wave. This is increasing convergence along the dryline. The strong covnergence combined with cooling mid-level temps appears to be working to break the cap. A couple of cb are starting to produce precip.

I am going to hang tight and wait for a storm to become rooted and deviate to the right. Once I feel like I have a dominant storm I will quickly latch on and see what I get. I might continue north to Ulysses in a few minutes to get closer to the developing echos.

With the sun going down it is quite possible I will be chasing tornadoes (assuming we get tornadoes today) right at dusk or shortly thereafter. Its a good thing I have the VX2100 just in case. I just hope a storm can really become surface-based and make the important "right turn".

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Also working to stay ahead of the line of towers here. Cool how clear the DL and convergence show up on that last satellite image. Twilight is getting near from the looks of things. I remember this day now (and that line of tor-watch boxes), but still can't remember the outcome - lol. My guess is that if I reality-chased this day, it was closer to home.

So for I'll just keep plodding forward and hope that something happens. I don't care if I have to chase in the dark ... have too much invested after driving all over Kansas today.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Also working to stay ahead of the line of towers here. Cool how clear the DL and convergence show up on that last satellite image. Twilight is getting near from the looks of things. I remember this day now (and that line of tor-watch boxes), but still can't remember the outcome - lol. My guess is that if I reality-chased this day, it was closer to home.

So for I'll just keep plodding forward and hope that something happens. I don't care if I have to chase in the dark ... have too much invested after driving all over Kansas today.

Guys, I promise you the next time I will do an older case! At least before 1980

Anyway I wait for the comments of the other chasers: I only tell you, be wise and evaluate well what to do.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am sitting tight just on east side of Ulysses KS as well and have a decent southern flank storm trying to become established. Cap is winning so far. Lets hope for the best Greg.

 

[Darren Addy]

Just another vote against the weekend timeframe for the start of a Chase Case. By the time I saw this it wouldn't have been a realistic scenario for me to participate in (without a Transporter device from the USS Enterprise).

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

As I expected that storm that developed over my head moved North into the ENE sfc winds and produced, I was on that storm for a little while, but I made a bad call and bailed about 15 minutes before it really got its act together, missed the tornado by 30 minutes, oh well. I think leaving it will pay off as I suspect it will weaken as it moves further North, I could probably race West and see what becomes of that storm on the NE/CO border, my suspicion is it will tornado before it reaches I-80 as it to interacts with the WF near and just North of Imperial, I would have to fly though, and I forgot my radar detector at home, so my attention is now on the activity to my SSW I'm going to hop on hwy 25 and slowly drift South...

 

[Bob Hartig]

This is where SRV would come in handy. Storms have blossomed nicely along the warm front, but I can't tell which are the main players based on reflectivity alone. Moisture and backing winds are great, but these storms are clumped together and HP. I'm on the one that's passing through Bertrand, NE, but this being a virtual chase, I don't have any visuals to go by. For all I know, I could be witnessing a tube right now, but I could just as easily be trying to sort my way through a crapload of rain. I'm really tempted for that reason to drop south in hopes of catching the dryline storms.

The low looks to have shifted into NW KS/SW NE and is bringing the dryline with it. That cell positioned right by the triple point must be the source for at least some of the tornado reports, and I like the looks of it. Wish like anything I had SRV right now; I rely on it as a much as I do reflectivity. But since that's not an option, I think I'm going to drop south for the dryline--lower helicities than the WF, but also better structure. That blob of convection near Brewster, KS, looks to be the northernmost bit of dryline stuff. I'm heading for Dresden, KS, for now, and will adjust as necessary, maybe drop south to Hoxie. You guys in Oakley are sitting pretty, seems to me.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I remember this day now, and I am glad I did not virtual chase it. It was a pretty big failure in real life.