New chase case#5

[Dennis Dennison]

As I was in Grand Island, I would have been in some severe weather, probaly wouldnt have seen anything except dents in my car.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Given that I was in Tribune at 18Z and I didn't catch the 0Z update before the results were posted, it's hard to say exactly what I would have done. If I didn't run north to intercept the Yuma County, CO storm, I definitely would have been on the SW KS storms. Hard to say as you can't be sure of all of your decisions in that six hour period. I'm confident, however, that I would have been in the vicinity of either.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I shoulda stayed in SC Nebraska and then moved west towards the southwest part of NE. Thanks Andrea!

Me too, exactly. In real life, I'm pretty sure I would have at least counted coupe at Johnson Lake, and, equipped with my own radar, would probably have continued to work my way toward the TP, relying heavily on SRV. In this virtual chase scenario, though, while I probably saw at least one tube, I bailed out on the warm front in a bid for better visibility. So...mixed results. Could've done better, certainly could've done worse.

Thanks for providing this scenario, Andrea.

 

[Paul Austin]

In reality we started the day off in York, NE after a 12 hour drive from Pine Bluff, AR to intercept the 5/10/2005 Grand Island storm the previous night. It was a beautiful storm even at this point with a possible tornado near the airport with damage. Our initial target for the 11th was SW Kansas somewhere near Dodge City. Funny, I picked the same target for this Chase Case. But as we drove west to position, we saw the storms going up with all the T-warnings and became impatient:

My earlier PM to Andrea:

The date is 05/11/2005. I remember, because we changed our target area from SW Kansas to try and catch the action exploding along the warm front. What we got was more rain and wind than we cared for with no real structure, while very late in the day, a cell dropped a nice cone just before sunset within 30 miles of our target. I don't remember our exact target, but it was nearly right on. I developed an early dislike for warm front setups from this exact day. To this day, I prefer dry line setups.

I also have a hard time changing my original plan, due to this chase. The very next day, we targeted NC OK and failed to go after the nice slow-moving dry line cells in the TX panhandlethat produced numerous tubes and monster hail, because we didn't want to repeat the previous day's change-of-plan failure by going after the first thing to fire off. This chasing stuff is not as easy as people think it is.

Funny, my initial targeting for this Chase Case #5 wasn't too bad, either, but I was going to race south and miss the nice KS discreet action...AGAIN! To be fair to myself, perhaps I would have seen the towers going up NW of me and adjusted back into KS. I just remember watching as the cap just seemed to refuse to break in KS until very late in the day.

Nice job, Andrea. Thanks for putting it together.

Indeed, Marc, this was a very frustrating two days (5/11, 5/12) for us. Argh! Fortunately, we made up for it the next day with a nice tube near Benjamin, TX.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I was lucky I decided to head to Leoti around 21z. Chances are my dad and I would have intercepted that southern cell near Ulysses, KS. We don't quit chasing until there is absolutely no sign we are going to see anything. Tough case though. Well done!

 

[David Wolfson]

I was looking for 85F+ down in the northeast TX Panhandle to break the cap, which didn't seem to materialize. At 21Z I headed just south of Perryton expecting imminent initiation somewhere along the Hugoton (KS)/Clarendon (TX) line, with the dryline cells southwest of me being the prime candidates. Hard to say what I would have done, but I think I would have packed up and headed back up the line toward the better forcing when at 22Z it was clear the Panhandle was a total wiff. That would have put me back in the Liberal/Hugoton/Ulysses area around 00Z.

Since there wasn't anything else to distract me, I'll call a partial credit "maybe" for me on this case, FWIW. Thanks for putting the case together, Andrea!

 

[Mark Farnik]

While I wasn't able to chase this day in real life (didn't have my driver's license yet, lol) if I had been, I probably would have been able to intercept the Ulysses, KS supercell and tube. I made a smart move when I headed down to Scott City at 21z, and likely would have continued south and west upon seeing the towers building on the southwestern horizon and would have made it down to the Ulysses area in time for for the big show. It's nice to see that I did a pretty decent job of targeting - now, if I can only replicate my success here in real life...

This was a challenging chase case - great job, Andrea

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I remember riding along the warm front that day and just hoping that something would root onto the boundary and go nuts. Unfortunately, everything I was on (IIRC, I was with Jeff S. and JR that day) crossed over the front and it just turned into one big crapfest.

 

[Marc Austin]

In reality we started the day off in York, NE after a 12 hour drive from Pine Bluff, AR to intercept the 5/10/2005 Grand Island storm the previous night. It was a beautiful storm even at this point with a possible tornado near the airport with damage. Our initial target for the 11th was SW Kansas somewhere near Dodge City. Funny, I picked the same target for this Chase Case. But as we drove west to position, we saw the storms going up with all the T-warnings and became impatient:

My earlier PM to Andrea:

The date is 05/11/2005. I remember, because we changed our target area from SW Kansas to try and catch the action exploding along the warm front. What we got was more rain and wind than we cared for with no real structure, while very late in the day, a cell dropped a nice cone just before sunset within 30 miles of our target. I don't remember our exact target, but it was nearly right on. I developed an early dislike for warm front setups from this exact day. To this day, I prefer dry line setups.

I also have a hard time changing my original plan, due to this chase. The very next day, we targeted NC OK and failed to go after the nice slow-moving dry line cells in the TX panhandlethat produced numerous tubes and monster hail, because we didn't want to repeat the previous day's change-of-plan failure by going after the first thing to fire off. This chasing stuff is not as easy as people think it is.

Funny, my initial targeting for this Chase Case #5 wasn't too bad, either, but I was going to race south and miss the nice KS discreet action...AGAIN! To be fair to myself, perhaps I would have seen the towers going up NW of me and adjusted back into KS. I just remember watching as the cap just seemed to refuse to break in KS until very late in the day.

Nice job, Andrea. Thanks for putting it together.

Indeed, Marc, this was a very frustrating two days (5/11, 5/12) for us. Argh! Fortunately, we made up for it the next day with a nice tube near Benjamin, TX.

Yeah, you know things aren't right when there are several very visible tornadoes over two days easily within driving distance, and the only one you see is on the third day and is wrapped in rain! We got really lucky with the Benjamin, TX tornado! You had to be right up under that meso to see anything!

I put myself in the non-tornado area. Most likely, I would have made the same mistake I did on the real day and headed up into Nebraska to get there too late to see anything of interest. If I had waited long enough, I might have made the sups in SW KS just after sunset. Even then, the best I could hope for would have been some nice CG's and possible structure. This was an excellent case. An example of a day that, by all accounts, looked to be a widespread severe event, but ended up being fairly localized. Thanks Andrea!

 

[Corey Sloan]

I did not chase this day due to my schedule, but I did follow the event from home/work. I did not do to bad on this one being in Pratt, KS...I did not have a chance to look at the latest data today before the results were posted...but I would have moved west based on radar trends....thanks Andrea for posting this chase case...it helps pass the time until spring and hones this semi-rookie's skills for the real deal.

 

[Justin Teague]

As promised, here are some video captures from the event. This was the Ulysses, KS tornado that occured shortly after 9:00PM. Image captures are from a Sony VX2100.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Ooh ... I think we are all required to be jealous of Teague all over again now. Great shots, Justin - and nice work that day.

Another fun virtu-chase for the record books ...

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I can't remember what I did this day, it certainly wasn't chasing...

I want to see a setup (not telegraphed, of course) where the WF was the place to be as opposed to the CF/DL.

 

[Joel Wright]

Thanks again to all you guys posting these chase cases. They are pretty fun and definitely help pass the time through this looooong winter!

 

[Derek Weston]

Ah... would've likely been in on these storms then, considering my adjustment to Liberal KS after 18z.

My thinking was rather simplistic:

1) Wanted to play the dry-line, not the warm front. Value discrete cells that are not cloaked in too much precip. I get to play the damned warm front all the time in Iowa -- we're going dryline this far west.
2) S/SW Kansas to NW OK had the sort of shear profiles I was looking for -- this occurring in conjunction with good thermodynamics.

Realistically... may have fretted too much over the cap in the area... not an avid night-time chaser.