New chase case#5

[Justin Teague]

I remember this day now (and that line of tor-watch boxes), but still can't remember the outcome - lol.

I remember the outcome. I might post a picture or two when the results are posted.

I'd be curious to know where the people that actually chased this day were vs. their virtual target in this thread. I've long been aware of regional biases when forecasting/targeting, and I would suspect that these chase case scenarios would eliminate that bias. I've already seen a post or two from people that chose a different target when actually chasing this event, which is what got me curious about everyone else.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

... I would suspect that these chase case scenarios would eliminate that bias.

Great point ... I bet it's exactly right.

 

[Marc Austin]

I now recall the date as well, so I'm out on this one. This truly was a frustrating day in real life! Oh if only I could go back to this date and do it all over again! If I learned anything from this date, it's to never again question my initial instincts and go with my gut!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

It was a pretty big failure in real life.

Tell me about it That's the reason why I did this case

 

[Dick McGowan]

I remember the outcome. I might post a picture or two when the results are posted.

You should! Your name immediately pops up when I think of this day. I could not chase this day thanks to chasing the day before and an early work schedule.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Ok, as many of you, guys, are guessing the case I post the last radar map.

2.30Z: Ulysses; after so many attempts a cell is able to break up the cap and a wonderful supercell is born. God bless the dry line and who had the constance to wait till 2.30Z to chase it!!
Congrats to all who stayed close to South-Western Kansas. The case was may 11th 2005

Here's the SPC Storm Report.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Based on what everyone is saying and the looks of that 0z radar I think we arrived a 'day late and a dollar short' on this one. I am making all the same mistakes on the virtual chase as I did on the real day - if it's the day I think it is now..

Edit: this wasn't the day I thought it was... I thought it was the Protection, KS day. On the real 5/11/2005 we were drawn north into NE and were only minutes behind the reported large tornado near McCook, NE. Never saw the tornado but did see the fresh damage from it:

http://www.stormchaserco.com/20050511.html

 

[Joel Wright]

Haha. Damn this updated pretty fast! I saw the 00z data and was gonna make a post but then saw the results are in LOL.

I was in Garden City at 21z and after seeing the 00z I had decided to head west to Lakin Kansas. Looks like there were a few tornadoes in the vicinity.

Thanks for posting Andrea.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

LOL ... oh yes, now I remember the outcome well. I even started the Reports thread that fateful day:

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4210

The funniest thing was that I saw the best stuff early on over NW Missouri. Then remember debating my butt off about whether I should head west deeper into the WF. Ended up heading over to Washington Co., Kansas, thinking we might get lucky back into the clear air, where we watched a dud storm screw around.

Ahhh, thanks for the memories Andrea ... ARGH.

 

[Leah Robertson]

Hee, I was in the process as well writing a post based on the 00Z data including a mini-rant about the cap not breaking and deciding to head north of Liberal on 83 towards Sublete, KS when I saw the results. In all honesty, I think I would have arrived a little late in seeing all the action. Ah, well.

I can understand now why so many became frustrated with the way Ma' Nature played out this scenario that day, especially with the cap refusing to break except for SW-Kansas.

Thanks for providing all the info, Andrea. =)

Edit: Lol, why can't I remember this day? I was still living in Kansas at the time but this whole day is a complete blank. Perhaps it's due the brain functioning in BC mode (Before Coffee).

 

[Patrick Martin]

Ooof, this was a challenging one. Seeing as I was Sharon Springs at 0z, not sure I would have made the actual storm. Probably would have gotten some good lightning and/or sturcture shots from afar, but I question whether I would have had enough sense to move back to the south and east in time.

Thanks Andrea for this case.

 

[Dean Baron]

Hmm, difficult to say whether I would've gone after the storms in SC Nebraska or held out hope in NC Kansas as the storms in Nebraska looked too clustered to be anything good. Either way, I shoulda stayed in SC Nebraska and then moved west towards the southwest part of NE. Thanks Andrea!

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I didn't chase this day. I was living in Arkansas at the time. Justin gave me an overview of this event about a year ago and told me why he chose to go where he did. When this chase case popped up I didn't recognize the date initially, however I recognized the type of pattern which would favor being further to the south where mid-level flow was more southwesterly. During later posts I actually recognized the event, but decided to play along anyway.

 

[Danny Neal]

I didn't do so bad, stayed in DDC, saw the towers go up to the west and northwest and may or may not have time to make it to intercept. I was in the general area.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I think that the problem of this chase case was that if you had picked your target in Central-North Western Ks, it would have been so hard to be twiddling your thumbs till 1Z, while supercells with tornado Warning were popping all around Sw Ne and Co...
So probably most of the chasers of that day headed toward Sw Ne to chase those crappy supercells with very low visibility, thinking that could be a nice occasion to spot the tube along the triple point.