New chase case#5

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I am liking the looks of the towers along the dryline in SW Kansas going to head south on US83 to Scott City or Leoti. The storms firing to the north and going to be moving away and are already pretty far north so I will head south along the dryline where it appears initiation will be imminent.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Wow this played out nice, decent storm developed right over head here in Norton. Now the problem is rather to chase it further North, or to wait on stuff off to my SW that is in the process of developing. Wish I could see more than just radar and sat. I am wondering if this stuff now overhead will last long once it moves North and crosses the WF, as that happens it should have a decent shot in ENE LL winds, though that may be short lived as it continues North into much more stable air. I'll likely watch this one for a while from here, though if it doesn't go crazy here in the next 30min I'd start on my way SW on 383/83, and wait for stuff in the better juice just to my SW to get going, I hope something goes out ahead of that stuff in E CO, though even if I have to wait for that to move East and explode I will be in good shape...

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I'm glad I picked Russell, now it's time to start chasing warnings

 

[Brian Stertz]

Cap holding tight at 5pm, but red box up and am liking the vertical towers on the dryline to my west and northwest. Initiation along the dryline should be soon from looks of things....some good cooling aloft moving in with the upper wave. Can see the nice anvils to the north but will hold tight in Liberal KS until I have a hard target to intercept on a dryline supercell.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I have made it to Liberal, KS and have been waiting for initiation along the dryline. The convection to the north isn't all that impressive so I still feel good about my target. I do realize my target could be a bust if the cap doesn't break. Again, without any updated 700mb or 500mb maps I have no idea if any cold air is advecting in from the west which would aid in breaking the cap. Again, I am not a big fan of warm front convection, so I drift northwest a little bit since I tend to get anxious waiting for a cap to break. I would defniately set up the camera and get some timelapse shots of the towering cu going up on the dryline. Come on cap....break....don't make me look like a fool.

 

[Dann Cianca]

The minimum in the Arkansas River Valley appears to have won out. I'm going to drop a little further south from my original target of Sharon Springs, Kansas to about the Tribune, Kansas area. I don't want to be involved in the warm front pileup, making sure I'm to the south when the storms have a little air to breathe. I like the cu developing over in Colorado and will be watching it with great interest.

I'm going to stay put in Tribune and wait for the storms to come across into Kansas. I'll be moving north and east to follow when then arrive. I am excited and have just chomped down two packages of cherry sours. Kansas still smells bad.

 

[David Wolfson]

Sure wish my data connection were better and I could get some surface obs. But the satellite shows both the dryline bowing through Amarillo and apparent low-level backing through the east-central Panhandle in response to the low up toward Dalhart somewhere.

It looks to me about to blow, with the cell near Borger in the lead, which would put me about right in Perryton. But the dryline looks about ready to go anywhere from Hugoton, KS, down to south of I-49 near Clarendon. The best convergence looks closer to Pampa and I haven't had good luck with the first, northernmost storm. I'm going to relocate about 20 miles south of Perryton, at the junction of TX70 and TX281. A right-mover will be moving from the southwest at 25-30 kts. or so, and I don't want to be cut off from crossing the Canadian River.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

With the dryline advancing east I am going have to shift from Borger to Pampa, TX (or maybe a little east of there depending on the speed of the dryline). It keeps me in play for anything in the Panhandles while not getting me too far from home at this point if I bust. Definitely looks like a bulge on the dryline over Palo Duro Canyon. I am not totally convinced there will be a tornado in the Panhandles this day with the wind field data that was given. 850s are a little out of the SW, but I bet they are backed east of the dryline. Its not bad, it is just not great. I am convinced though there will atleast be a couple good storms follow around later and thats all I care for.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Decided to hold tight in my original target of Oakley after seeing the 18z updates, and shortly thereafter Michael, Verne, and a plethora of other chasers converged on my location, so I spent some quality time hobnobbing with everyone while waiting for the 21z data.

I don't particularly care for what I see going up along the warm front, but the towers building further south along the dryline look much more intriguing, so I'm going to drift south on Highway 83 to Scott City, KS. Initiation along the dryline should occur within the next hour, and then it'll just be a matter of waiting until a definite target storm develops, and the chase is on!

 

[Danny Neal]

I am still holding tight in Dodge City, and noticing the towers in the TX Panhandle and to my NW. Just going to stand pat right now.

 

[Patrick Martin]

12z target: Dodge City KS

Coming into this a little late, but after looking over the 12z maps only, I think there will definitely be chasable storms, some sups, and tor probs are pretty good for the day. I like the jet max about to round the base of the low on the H5, plenty of moisture across the TX panhandle, OK, and KS. The dryline is likely back across NM and although I feel like I should be going to Dumas TX, with a stacked low over UT, not completely confident it will mix to far east through the day and could be rather difuse + the panhandle looks somewhat capped. With that, will play a little farther north in SW KS. I'll be on the road from Denver to Dodge City, and will arrive in time to grab lunch, and look over the 18z data.

It'll be interesting to now start moving forward through the posts and updates.

 

[Chris Allington]

About to head a bit south from Hoxie to the Garden City area and monitoring the cu field above me... I will chase anything now that develops between the HWY 40-50 corridors.

 

[Patrick Martin]

18z: Have had lunch in Dodge City and after looking over the data, am becoming a bit disenchanted with the dryline in the panhandle. Even though I was very wrong on it being difuse, the area up closer to the warm front is looking more appealing. Am moving north up 283 to WaKeeney. Should be there in less than 2 hours.

21z: Am cursing myself up and down for not just stopping and staying put in Colby or Oakley when I came through this morning. Am now headed back west on I-70 towards Oakley as KS/CO border is the play I have at this point.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Time to make my move....

Have a bunch of hard rock towers to my northwest now. Time to get a bite to eat and get up north towards the Ulysses area. Things are starting to gel on the dryline.

 

[Marc Austin]

Boy! What a difference a couple of hours makes! I'm very hesitant to move very much from Oakley, KS as I don't want to jump the gun. I see some convection in far eastern CO, but it's most likely racing north or NNEwd. Given the probability that storms will be more isolated along the dryline, I'm going to inch my way southward from Oakley toward Scott City, keeping a wary eye on the sky and on the threat net for any sups going up. I sure hope I'm not leaving the best spot behind.