New chase case#5

[Bob Hartig]

I'm going to nudge west, but not by much. New location: Phillipsburg, KS. If any of the joggers there resemble the Amarillo hodograph, they will have my attention.

 

[Rodney Price]

I'm getting a late start today but we'll play the boundary in northern Kansas. I'm heading to Russell initially then will look at more data once I get there.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well, as usual, the WF looks to be producing at home while I'm on the road. I'm headed north to the boundary, though ... will meet up with the O'Keefes in Wakeeney and see if we can come up with some sort of plan. Kind of wondering about Hill City to Stockton now.

 

[Danny Neal]

I stopped my trip to Perryton and am in Dodge City relaxing and looking for a place to get some num nums, I am in the best of both worlds. Can play the warm front in 2 1/2 hours and can also play the dryline in that period of time as well. I have always been a big dryline guy, but the warm front and subsequent boundary are very appealing right now.

 

[Verne Carlson]

We Carlsons' have dropped down to Oakley, KS to say hi to Marc and all the chasers and have lunch at the Subway. CU is streaming rapidly northwest above us and giving us that classic 'Tornado sky'

 

[David Wolfson]

The biggest pressure falls are in northeast NM with the low center having slipped south. Goodland is now north of the front. A pretty strong dryline has now pushed across the TX border, with TCC and CVN dried out. I just can't ignore the AMA sounding with its 2000 CAPE and Tc of 84F.

I'm on the road to Perryton, TX, arriving about 20Z.

 

[Shane Adams]

Well, the 18z update came and went am I'm as clueless as I was at 12z. Not much detail in the information provided. I passed on the obvious target early, so there's no way I can make initation now. Only shot I have left is to drive west and hope a DL bulge develops somewhere.

It would be nice to get a fixed template of data sets on these chase cases, so we could know what we have to work with. I personally don't even use soundings, so those are worthless to me. And not having crucial stuff like h7 temps on each update just kills someone like me, who loves thermals and will flirt with a capbust every chance I get.

But hey, there's nothing to lose so I'll just go west and maybe get something all to myself. Let's say....Alanreed for now.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Well, the 18z update came and went am I'm as clueless as I was at 12z. Not much detail in the information provided. I passed on the obvious target early, so there's no way I can make initation now. Only shot I have left is to drive west and hope a DL bulge develops somewhere.

It would be nice to get a fixed template of data sets on these chase cases, so we could know what we have to work with. I personally don't even use soundings, so those are worthless to me. And not having crucial stuff like h7 temps on each update just kills someone like me, who loves thermals and will flirt with a capbust every chance I get.

But hey, there's nothing to lose so I'll just go west and maybe get something all to myself. Let's say....Alanreed for now.

Shane, you're right but in this way it's a little more hard to pick up a target, and it's a little more intriguing. Let's say that we'll solve the case with a more "old style" approach.

Anyway, no problem if you need 700mb Temps: just tell me and I look for those.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

At this point I would still be on the road (HWY412) between Enid and Woodward, OK still headed west to Liberal, KS. It appears there is a pretty stout cap in place on DDC sounding, and the 850mb plot shows nuclear cap in place just to the southwest of my target into Texas panhandle and eastern NM.

I am becoming a little concerned with cap strength, and without any 700 or 500mb plots I really am not able to look for any lead wave that might eject into the high Plains later in the day. I really like what I am seeing on the visible satellite at 18z. It appears low-level clouds are begining to clear out which should leave us with several hours of strong insolation as we go through the afternoon.

I still feel like this is going to be a late afternoon or evening event considering cap strength. A quick look at the 12z data again confirms this idea. I am hoping for some scattered thunderstorm development late in the day. If a storm can develop along the dryline and become rooted then this chase won't be a bust. Looking at the 18z DDC sounding I am a little unimpressed with the lack of backing surface winds. Hopefully an ejecting mid-level disturbance and deepening surface low will help to back winds torward the evening. I still think any storm that can become rooted and "right turn" and move more northeast instead of north-northeast will be the storm to go after.

Storm development further north along the warm front is more likely considering weaker cap, and boundary may serve as a focus for tornadic supercells given enhanced low-level shear. Again I prefer dryline storms, so I am taking my chances further south.

There is a lot of question about today's potential, but it looks too good to stay at home.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Getting involved in this case late, but looking at the 12Z:

Based on the 12Z I'm leaving Omaha and heading to SLN, prepared to go to ICT or Hays if need be. I remember 05/22/2008 and how storms croaked once they got north of I-70, so given the choice I'd play the DL/CF rather than the WF.

However, I might wait until the 1630Z.

1630Z:

What's with the Red Box Manhattan-Sedalia? I wasn't even looking there!

I left Omaha between updates, getting to SLN and heading west on I-70 to at least Russell, there I might duck south.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Right, wrong or indifferent I am not going to second guess just yet....holding tight in the Ness City, KS area! There are going to be supercells and tornadoes in the plains! Western KS is under the gun, IMHO!

EDIT: My hometown is right in the middle of the red box...always happens when I go to Western KS (real or virtual). I get sunburned and a tube appears near home!

 

[scott r currens]

Based on the 12z data I was going to start in Hays, KS. After looking at 18z data I know exactly what chase this is so I am out. I've PM'd my guess to Andrea.

 

[Brad Nelson]

Still sitting in Oakley, KS and wouldn't move yet, based on the 18Z update. Nice CU field developing along ahead of the dryling moving into western KS and we'd be in good position to drop south on 83 if anything develops in the next few hours. Storm motion would be favorable and move north-northeast towards us so I'm liking intercept chances at this point. If the dryline continues to move quickly east, may want to jump on I-70 and head back towards Wakeeney.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Much like I expected the WF has struggled to surge much further North from its 12Z position, after chilling in Arapahoe NE for lunch, I would slowly begin my drift down 283 into NW KS; I’ll probably wait in Norton for a while, until it becomes clear where things are going to go first. I am guessing I will have to eventually start drifting a little SW, just don’t want to commit to far South this early, things to my South will move towards me. Things are already starting to look convective, but in the wake of the E KS convection its probably going to be awhile before the next wave brings some mid level cooling and triggers things. I still don’t know what day this is, seems these type of setups are pretty common in NW KS, reminds me somewhat of the 22nd this year given location and setup of boundaries, also similar to 3/28/07 esp. with the backed upper levels, this day is just less dynamic than both with far weaker LL flow.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

After a closer look at the 18z I think my target is too far east. I am going to head west to Oakley, KS and chat with the Carlsons.

With the backed flow I wouldn't be surprised to see NNW storm motions so I'd rather be N or NW of where storms initiate.