New chase case#5

[Jim Tang]

I think I may remember this day... disregarding that, I think I will stop at Goodland, KS and move east or south pending further data.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

I am a late entry into this, but I think I will have to set up close to Great Bend, KS. This will allow me to adjust most any direction fairly easily if needed. I like the looks of the 850mb here, but wanting to see the next updates.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Looks at least like a moderate risk 15 hatched torns, if not a high later in the day (25 hatched). Deep moisture, great directional and speed shear over (what should be) a good chunk of the High Plains. I'll start off in my hometown of Dighton, KS and eat at the Frigid Creme and visit with old friends while awaiting the 18z data. I wouldn't be surprised if the show started early in Eastern Colorado, in vicinity of the 500 mb cold-core low.

 

[Paul Townsend]

I will initially set up shop in Dodge City, KS, mooching wi-fi from the Best Western like I did on Memorial Day 2008.

Not having a large observational data set of high plains chase days under my belt, I want to be a reasonable distance south of the triple point/warm front to be able to make a southward trek if the north doesn't pan out or the dryline further southwest is the better place to be. The strong low-level cold, dry feed will retard any appreciable northward movement of the warm front so I am in good position to easily reach that area.

I have no experience in determining dryline movement in southern high plains situations, but my guess is that it will not move very much to the east from what the morning data shows. Better shear for more picturesque storms and more visible potential tornadoes will be found southwest of me so I will probably end up heading that way sooner than later.

 

[Derek Weston]

Based on the 12z I'm sitting in S central Kansas with the option to pop south in Oklahoma pretty quick...

 

[Paul Austin]

I wouldn't be surprised if the show started early in Eastern Colorado, in vicinity of the 500 mb cold-core low.

I was wondering about that possibility as well. I'm not really good at front range/high plains vicinity forecasting, so my take is pretty hit or miss. I'll stay east for now.

 

[Corey Sloan]

TARGET: Ness City, KS waiting on latest data.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Upon further inspection of 12z stuff, one concern I have right now is an expanding cap at 700mb. May have to keep an eye on that 10 degree line at 700mb ...not seeing much hope for cooling across the TX Panhandle. May have to fudge a bit further north to the Liberal KS area for lunch....and hold pending further 18z data. Looks like maybe a developing theta ridge poking up into SW Kansas....with backed surface winds. Hmmmm.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm still sitting in Norman in front of my computer waiting for 18z updates, which as of now are about 6 hours late

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Based off of the 12z models I'll find myself starting out in Dodge City, KS. Looks like a ton of moisture over the High Plains, this setup looks pretty intense. I will pinpoint a better target when the 18z data arrives.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I want to help you as more as I can and I will proceed with some more updates than usual, so keep an eye upon the forum.

Now, since is Sunday and more people has free time to take a look to this case I immediately upload 18Z maps with surface analysis, 850 mb analysis, sat and radar.
I created a wayfaring map to write down your targets: feel free to add yourself to this map. This map allows anyone to add himself if you're registered in wayfaring.

http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/54201


Surface South analysis

Surface Central analysis

850mb Temperature analysis

Sat

Radar with watches

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I are heading north on US283 to WaKeeney, KS to play the warm front where the temps appear warmer and the winds are nice and backed. This day looks familiar, but I am unsure if it is the one I am thinking of.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I will add some soundings in a while.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Here we go with Ama and DDC sounding at 17 and 18Z. I couldn't find North Platte sounding of 18Z.

 

[Brian Stertz]

850mb flow looking a little less exciting at 18z, but the 850mb low appears to be strengthening. This should draw even deeper moisture up into SW Kansas Looks like things are still in flux mode. I'll camp out in Liberal KS a while longer and await more data.