New chase case#5

[Marc Austin]

Well, not a whole lot of change. I'm having a good time chatting with the Carlsons and other chasers who have stopped in Oakley. I'll probably just wait here until something interesting happens. I may need to head just a tad further south, but I'm happy here with decent road options. Looks like things should get going pretty soon. It's still fairly early and there's plenty of time for the cap to erode through late afternoon.

 

[Darin Brunin]

Based on the 12z data I was going to start in Hays, KS. After looking at 18z data I know exactly what chase this is so I am out. I've PM'd my guess to Andrea.

The 18z data popped a day I chased into my mind so I am out on this one as well. Be on your toes for this one...it's a bit tricky .

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Ugh ... this is driving me nuts. I probably should know it, but still don't ... so I'm still on the chase and running around the plains. Currens/Brunin are being no help at all. lol This setup is like so many others that it's tough to distinguish the day.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Looks like our internet issues are solved...we definitely were having some issues while on the road

Ate breakfast in Great Bend to wait on 18z data and now we have been moving north and west to the Hays area in the 18z update. I'm really liking a few parameters here in WC KS, plus you have the boundary lingering.

 

[Dean Baron]

Driving south thru SC Nebraska and will continue south in to Kansas closer to the warm front probably towards the Russel, KS area but ready to readjust at any time.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Jogging NE a bit towards liberal, KS

A quick pit stop, some gas station ham sandwiches and a reload of code red Mt dew. I may sit here for a bit before a potential shift to the north.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I know the date now...so without cheating, I'll have to stay put. There are a lot of you in good position...while others, I would not want to be where you are.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

Looking at the 18z info, I'd certainly prefer the DDC sounding over the AMA one, but that may just be because of the location of the dry line in relation to both sites. It's currently sat pretty much over me in Dumas and also Amarillo, and I'd expect it to retreat west somewhat into the evening hours. Closer TD/DP spreads up in Kansas are drawing me that way but I'd ideally have some better upper level wind data to help in working out where the cap may break soonest so I can get more time chasing in daylight . Whilst I suspect I'm in a good position for storms down in the panhandle (and I'd imagine all the way down to the Lubbock area), I think storms North into the OK panhandle and SW Kansas should have higher tornado probabilities and be less vulnerable to cap issues. Chase terrain gets better the further north I go which is an added bonus.

If I give myself 4 hours of travel maximum until initiation, I could reach as far north as Garden City. I'll stop at Liberal for a checkup and to say hello to the chaser convergence gathering there as I pass through With storm motions having a strong Northerly component, I'd rather get as far north as possible and then stair step down south as necessary once initiation happens.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Hard to tell how fast this thing is going to move in from the west, but be hanging out in Sharon Springs, Kansas, maybe catch the sunrise from Mount Sunflower. I see it's snowing on the Palmer Divide ... glad I left Denver early. Man, these southerlies are filling my nostrils with fresh Kansas cow dirt. There seem to be a couple pressure minimums in Colorado ... might watch the Arkansas River Valley and drop south as the day develops.

The minimum in the Arkansas River Valley appears to have won out. I'm going to drop a little further south from my original target of Sharon Springs, Kansas to about the Tribune, Kansas area. I don't want to be involved in the warm front pileup, making sure I'm to the south when the storms have a little air to breathe. I like the cu developing over in Colorado and will be watching it with great interest.

 

[Shane Adams]

Could somebody just PM the date to me? I'm out.

I don't understand how you guys remember charts from certain days. I can barely remember where I drove.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well there's no way on earth that I can make Liberal at this point. But maybe if I head west I can make it to Oakley at least, which is hopefully closer to the TP. Why is this stuff so much easier to read in RT?

 

[Andrew Revering]

I'm going to sit tight in Holdrege, NE. I know I'm the odd man out being up in Nebraska, but honestly I can't grasp onto something to make me move. Satellite indicates a lot of instability out there... assuming mid levels are similar to whats above Dodge City (since I have to assume that without more data), and CU all over satellite, everyone looks to have a lot of instability to work with. North of the warm front there is a lot of low level moisture and tons of shear, so I'm hoping something up here is going to fire up (likely less capping in this environment as well), and go tornadic.

Given its now apparent that the low is not moving at all, as it's still developing ahead of the trough, these boundaries are not going to be very dynamic. Another reason satellite shows potential *everywhere*. Therefore, staying put in Holdrege, NE.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Here we go with the brief update of 21Z. Tomorrow I'll proceed with the last updates of the case. Good luck.

Radar 21.30Z

Sat 21.15

Radar 20.30Z

 

[Andrew Revering]

Considering there is probably more instability to my south, and of the cluster of storms developing north of the warm front, I think my best bet is to drift south 1 county to intercept the southernmost cell currently developing at 21z, which should move ENE into Harlan County, NE.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I've been following this on my cell phone so i never picked a specific target, but since the first post i have basically been sitting in the NE TX panhandle, and i am still happy with that decision.