New chase case#5

[Adam Lucio]

I think Im going to start in Beaver, OK.

Theres a bit of a moisture tounge in central OK and I feel Im not too far out of position should the dryline or warmfront decide to go. Warm front will be a little tricker given my position so Im banking on a dryline vent near the TX/OK panhandles and into Wern Kansas. These high clouds are a bit of a concern So Im going to try my best to position myself to hit any potential target.

This does look like a good widespread event though.

EDIT: scratch that...going to start in Guymon, OK for better road network.

 

[Chris Allington]

As others have pointed out I love the moisture of so early in the day and this looks like a very dynamic system with favorable wind fields over a large area. Given my location... I'm headed to Hoxie, KS and should be there by about 1730z with a stop for gas and some OJ. I'd like to stay along the warmfront and just ESE of the surface low and chasing will take me back home, somewhat.

 

[Danny Neal]

Very big potential with this system for obvious reasons, already pointed out by the majority. I have always been a fan of the dryline so my target is some where in the panhandle region. Since I am coming from Chicago, I already left the night before and by the time this update (6 AM I am guessing) came out I would be near Wichita, Kansas, and still heading south and west. I think I am going to take 54 West to Dodge City and then take that into the OK Panhandle. I am thinking of hitting Liberal and then jetting south on 83 to Perryton, TX for now. That's a five hour trip so I will be there by 17Z.

Target area: NE TX panhandle - Perryton, TX

 

[Andrew Revering]

The low being on the KS/CO border makes me think it's probably on the move. If it were to hang, typically those lows are farther west or southwest. With the flow being NE to ENE, and the current position of the moisture tongue and surface "jet", and orientation of the warm front and parallel mid level flow, I think the warm front will lift north, skies will clear and outflow boundaries from morning convection interacting with the advancing warm front, and approaching low from the WSW should make for long track supercells rooted into the warm front. It doesnt look like air temps will be terribly warm... perhaps toping around 80 at best, but moisture is relatively good and there's plenty of evidence of that with clouds and fog along and north of the warm front, so surface based storms should be possible in this area if we can get through any capping. So I'm going to target around Holdrege, NE.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm thinking along the same lines as Andrew ... may need to head north and east if anything. Hard to tell, though. That thing may be cut off or just hanging out. I kind of think with these winds that it's headed east, though. The next update should tell us more, hopefully -

 

[Marc Austin]

That trough is going to swing southeast to east southeastward if anything. Not sure how fast it's moving, but that's going to be the real question of the day. How far west will convection begin and will any capping prevent it from happening relatively early? I hope there's some capping and we don't end up with a linear mess over NE and KS!

After getting bored at the Wal-Mart Supercenter here in Great Bend, KS, I'm going to move up to 70 and head west toward Colby, KS. Hopefully I can meet up with Verne and compare chase tactics! If stuff starts firing to my east, I can jet that direction in a hurry and hopefully intercept it! Good luck to everyone. This is going to be a big day! I can feel it.

Edit: I've decided not to venture all the way to Colby as it would be somewhat out of the way. I don't want to get stuck where I don't have excellent road options. I'm going to stop short of Colby in Oakley where many other chasers seem to be targeting. There are better road options north, south, east, and west. I don't want to get caught somewhere where I might have to backtrack. Verne, if you want to meet up, I'll be at the Subway at the truck stop in Oakley waiting for the 18Z update. Same place we met up this year on May 23! Good luck!

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Everything looks to be coming together over the Panhandles for later in the day. 60 degree dew points on top of the Caprock should lead to quite an active day once the upper level energy pushes in. It looks like a backyard chase to me, so I would be falling back asleep at this point and waiting for the 18z data.

12z Target - Borger, TX

 

[Mark Farnik]

I'm currently enroute from Denver to my initial target of Oakley, KS - I like that it's east of the triple point, and I have solid road options in all directions, so I can reposition with ease to either play the warmfront or the dryline. If things look better further down the dryline in southwestern KS on the 18z update, I could jet (with emphasis on 'jet') down Highway 83 and make it down to the far northeastern TX Panhandle in time for initiation.
Once I reach Oakley, I'm going to wait for the 18z updates and make my move from there.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Not a gigantic fan of the extremely backed upper levels, while these days have yielded some monster tubes for me, they always seem to coincide with crazy storm motion and not the most photogenic of tornadoes. I can see the reasoning for wanting to be down further South, upper levels will have a bit more of a westerly component making for slightly more favorable storm motion, all while surface winds should still back nicely along the dryline, so directional shear will be quite favorable down there, however I think I’ll still play the Warm Front (I always have been a WF fan), despite the almost entirely Southerly upper levels, directional shear should be salvaged right along the Warm Front as LL’s back substantially, based on a small amount of 12Z data, looks like one of those days where I‘ll wait for something to fire off to my SSW and wait as it rockets NNE and then tornadoes as it crosses the boundary. Anyway this looks like a solid day for the entire plains region, like many others, I never really have a 12Z specific target, though based on the limited amount of stuff I have seen, I would set out and have my self near Arapahoe NE by the Noon hour. From there I can be down the Dryline as far as SW KS or OK panhandle if need be, though my preliminary guess is I wind up in this general area, though driving through all these LL clouds and thick fog along I-80 has me wondering if the WF will surge all that far North, my guess is it ends up just across the border into KS, either way Arapahoe for Lunch has me plenty early to position myself for my final target…

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

It looks like an interesting setup with large trough out west and plenty of moisture over the Texas panhandle. The upper low is closed and still centered well west of the plains, so I would be watching for a lead wave ejecting out into the high plains late in the day. I see a distinct tornado threat, however I think it will be rather isolated considering the main forcing with the upper low will remain west of the Plains through the day. I don't like the warm front setup, and I have never been much of a warm front guy. I will play the base of the trough and wait to see if storms fire along the dryline in southwest Kansas or Oklahoma panhandle. I think it could be a late show, but definately a real tornado threat. I will head to Liberal, KS and make adjustments from there. This appears to be a day where you go after the first supercell to develop along the dryline and deviates to the right of the mean flow.

I am starting in Tulsa, OK, so I will definately need to be on the road fairly early.

 

[David Wolfson]

This seems like one of those "day before" scenarios. The upper system is stacked well west of the Front Range and there's enough mid-level warm air flowing up to be troubling, without something like a stout dryline push to break the cap. The only place I see that developing this day is into southwest KS as the low over east-central CO ambles a bit north of east into west-central KS.

There's quite a bit of cold air banked up north of the front, generally aligned along I-70 through KS at 12Z, as shown by the brisk ENE winds in southern NE. I don't see the front making it into NE during the day. Storm motion from the southwest at 30 kts or so will carry storms rather quickly across the front.

Anyway, I'll start the morning in Garden City, KS. There's a pretty good all-I-can-eat brunch buffet there. I can digest that along with the 18Z obs.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I've made the long haul to Lebanon, Kansas. Chalk me up as another who believes that this will be a widespread outbreak day. While I think it'll be hard to go wrong with the dryline, I'm going to hang out by the triple point/WF near the Nebraska border. Dewpoints will build, the LLJ will bring in good 850 mb moisture, and as the low moves eastward, cold 700 mb advection will make for explosive storm growth. Can't argue with the 300 and 500 mb jets. Everything's either in place or will be in place when it counts, from what I can see. Soundings must look sweet throughout the region. I'll just sit here for now and wait for the next model run before making whatever adjustments I need to.

 

[Paul Austin]

I'll chase this setup. It looks like tornadic potential justifies a flight from Jacksonville, FL to Wichita, KS. I hope I can find such a trip on short notice. I'd prefer not to have to drive from OKC. I'll spend the morning driving to an initial staging location near Dodge City, KS. I think this puts me within moving distance of the warm front near the NE border, provided it doesn't move northward quickly, should this area prove to be the main initiation area. I like the moisture here with the approaching wave, nice divergence aloft, and possible dry line setup from this area southward into the TX panhandle. At this time, vertical directional wind shear looks good as well, but time will change that, so I figure I will have to choose between my target areas and move relatively early. While I drive, I'll be questioning and requestioning my thinking. Hopefully, indecision doesn't kill me like it did in the last scenario. Now to find out where Marc's at.

 

[Paul Austin]

Marc, we're pretty close. Maybe as things unfold we will reunite and once again chase together as a single team. I know you don't believe me, but I forgive you for leaving me behind in Chase Case #2

 

[Paul Austin]

I wouldn't rule out NM as a target if the low center lingers or moves out very slowly. Dewpoints are high pretty far west into the state with moderately strong upper air kinematics, but I'm trying to maximize my opportunities and choices. I do see this as a big outbreak day, but that doesn't mean it won't be localized. Good luck eveyone.