Major Pattern Change Coming Up ??

[Joerg Kudella]

I just now looked at the 00Z ECMWF, and it is a relief to see that the major omega block may not be as prevalent as I feared.

Ok Logan, you were right. I couldn´t believe it but the major omega block pattern has come true and I´m totally disappointed by what the models show. Three days ago it seemed to be a good start for us. Now there is hardly any chance to see a thunderstorm in the Plains any time soon. GFS 06z was the worst model run so far. First week of chasecation 2011 will be a sightseeing tour:-(

 

[Bryan Stokes]

First week of chasecation 2011 will be a sightseeing tour:-(

For everyone who's on a dedicated chasecation right now, especially if you're coming here from overseas, don't just go and see the world's largest ball of twine...pack up and go somewhere really cool. For example, I'm in Moab, UT right now for a photography symposium and mountain biking. It's only a 5 1/2 hour drive from Denver, so you're only 1 to 1 1/2 days from the Plains and there's literally weeks of things to see and do here. Unfortunately, the weather looks great until the middle of next week (when it looks like there will be a major synoptic change), so you might as well get out to the places where you can really enjoy the great weather!

Bryan

 

[Steve Smithson]

Sounds to me the season is looking pretty grim!!! I fly out Saturday 21st for two weeks.... looks like two weeks of sightseeing then!! :-(

Steve.

 

[Derek Weston]

Sounds to me the season is looking pretty grim!!! I fly out Saturday 21st for two weeks.... looks like two weeks of sightseeing then!! :-(

Steve.

No. Looks like there should be some plains activity later next week. (at least if you're going to follow the way out model runs...)

 

[Steve Smithson]

Cool!!! I'd be happy even to see non tornadic thunderstorms just to grab lightning shots, thats always interesting and gives me a chance to play with my new camera

Steve.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Steve, I can have as much fun doing lightning photography as I do going after supercells and tornadoes. I had the time of my life a few nights in 2008 in Salina, KS.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Lightning is always fun....

 

[Steve Smithson]

Going to be a real novelty trying to capture it as its the first decent SLR I've ever had

Steve.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Steve, if you do it at night be sure to use ISO 100 or 200 (experiment). Also, f 4.0 and 5.6. Again, just experiment. It's easy to experiment with digital. Be sure to use tripod and a cable release

 

[Steve Smithson]

Will do Chris and thanks for the tips, will be off into town next week for final bits of equipment

Steve.

 

[Logan Karsten]

Yeah, this next week is very messy, and I don't know if I trust any model beyond 132 hours right now. With such a blocky pattern, I am sure we will see a breakdown sooner than later, but it's just too hard to tell at this point.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

FWIW, the CPC outlook for the 8-14 day period (May 20-26) is good! Mean trough in the west, ridge in the east with above normal precip in the Plains, esp KS, NEB, even some precip in W TX. It's consistent with yesterday's forecast, although they claim below average confidence.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Also FWIW, the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble (and operational) runs concur today on a negative-tilt trough setting up in the west towards the end of next week.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Sounds to me the season is looking pretty grim!!! I fly out Saturday 21st for two weeks.... looks like two weeks of sightseeing then!! :-(

Steve.

Steve,

Recalling a few of your posts, I know that you've at least been out on a tour or two with Cloud 9, so I know you've been out on the Plains at least a few times. I don't know if you've been exposed much to forecasting or understanding the weather, but today is May 12th. There is no way you can tell what the weather is going to do from May 21st to June 5th.

If you are that worried about the future of the season, this far out, then this hobby may not be for you. True chasers roll with the tide and take what mother nature gives them. But for now, it's too early to tell what's going to happen 2-3 weeks from now. You just have to relax and go with it...

Bryan

 

[Steve Smithson]

Steve,

Recalling a few of your posts, I know that you've at least been out on a tour or two with Cloud 9, so I know you've been out on the Plains at least a few times. I don't know if you've been exposed much to forecasting or understanding the weather, but today is May 12th. There is no way you can tell what the weather is going to do from May 21st to June 5th.

If you are that worried about the future of the season, this far out, then this hobby may not be for you. True chasers roll with the tide and take what mother nature gives them. But for now, it's too early to tell what's going to happen 2-3 weeks from now. You just have to relax and go with it...

Bryan

Originally Posted by Drew.Gardonia
A bad day of chasing, is a million times better than a good day at the office.

Steve[/Quote]
Second that!!! Friends you haven't seen in a year or more, dining out in a group and having a beer and a good time ...nothing compares!

Steve Smithson

Hi Bryan,

Please refer to my above earlier post in response to Drew Gardonia's post ;-)

I'm more than positive when it comes to chasing Charles & Jim will tell you that, for me I've a lesser understanding of patterns mainly I'm one of these who just likes to "watch it all happen" so to speak, I've always been of the understanding that tornadoes are never guarenteed.

I'm about as truer chaser as I can afford to be, I wish I could do this guarenteed every year I'm just not up to speed with forecasting and rules of thumb.

For example the differences between death ridges, Zonal flows and Omega Blocking were all new to me until now, ok death ridge is self explanitory but the others not so, maybe I should sit and learn the basics during downtime so I can get a general idea.

I love chasing as much as the next person and am looking forward to this years and indeed 2012 (booked up)

Steve.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Well the current models indeed look quite boring, but take a look at this... that gives some optimism... as far as I've read, transformation from PNA+ into PNA- means favorable pattern for tornadic activity for the Plains.



Hope I am not mistaken, though.