Major Pattern Change Coming Up ??

[Kelly Sugden]

The 04.00Z ECMWF still depicts some action across the Plains around May 9-12 or so depending on the final timing of the upper level trough. Oh, and look at that second trough forming out in the northeast Pacific behind it. No death ridge.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

The 04.00Z ECMWF still depicts some action across the Plains around May 9-12 or so depending on the final timing of the upper level trough. Oh, and look at that second trough forming out in the northeast Pacific behind it. No death ridge.

good! that's great news! Game on Monday! I head for Tulsa on Monday,very bright and early.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

good! that's great news! Game on Monday! I head for Tulsa on Monday,very bright and early.

Good luck Drew! Best wishes for photogenic weather in great chase terrain! I think things will work out.

Bryan

 

[Zack Hargrove]

My team and I will be arriving in Ok City this Sunday the eighth. I am liking the way the pattern is shaping up personally. There seems to be a general trough/ridge/trough pattern depending on what model you look at. Will be in the plains from the 8th-22nd and I am thinking we will have many good chase days.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Planing a short mini chase from the UK to the chase this coming Sat - Weds. Capping will be a REAL issue until Monday but ether Tues or Weds *should* be the "big" days.

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

I'm thinking of heading out too Monday-Tuesday(?). Ensemble spread looks low for this event. Does anyone have an extra spot? If so send me a private message

 

[Greg Blumberg]

Many of the ensembles I've been looking at have signs of developing a longwave trough to affect the Continental U.S. Last night's CMC shows a general zonal flow across the U.S. at 96 hours out. This solution is supported by this morning's 12 UTC GEFS output. Both models tell the same tale of an upstream jet streak induce troughing downstream. The difficulty is the placement and wavelength of the trough being induced, however most CMC solutions I've seen have the trough in a favorable location for lee cyclogenesis.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The GFS has been very consistent over the last 24 hours, showing a strong warm front setup along the KS/NE border 3 days in a row, starting Mon, May 9th! Deep layer shear doesn't look too strong on any of the days (looks better towards the latter part of this setup as the main trough finally swings through the plains), but the moisture return looks so good there could be an extreme instability/low bulk shear type event. 65 to 70+ degree dewpoints east of the dryline.

 

[Logan Karsten]

I am trying to have hope for next week and beyond, but every model run that comes out is looking more and more like crap to me. Looking at the 00Z GFS, the trough gets completely torn apart before it has a chance to eject out into the plains. So, you get all the moisture/instability, but the shear never makes it out. I could see a couple of potential warm front/dryline days, but that's about it. Beyond that, things get very ugly with a persistent omega block pattern. I have seen this developing consistently in all models for a few days now. I know this is still a long way out, but seeing this persistently in the models is making me very pessimistic.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

Good luck Drew! Best wishes for photogenic weather in great chase terrain! I think things will work out.

Bryan

thanks Bryan, I've been looking forward to and yearning for this for the past 2 years. I'm ecstatic, but as Jason Foster told me, slow down, enjoy every moment of it, because it will probably go by so fast.

My team and I will be arriving in Ok City this Sunday the eighth. I am liking the way the pattern is shaping up personally. There seems to be a general trough/ridge/trough pattern depending on what model you look at. Will be in the plains from the 8th-22nd and I am thinking we will have many good chase days.

Hope I see you guys out there this time, and maybe we can all grab dinner together! Happy chasing!

 

[Eric Bucsela]

I am trying to have hope for next week and beyond, but every model run that comes out is looking more and more like crap to me. Looking at the 00Z GFS, the trough gets completely torn apart before it has a chance to eject out into the plains. So, you get all the moisture/instability, but the shear never makes it out. I could see a couple of potential warm front/dryline days, but that's about it. Beyond that, things get very ugly with a persistent omega block pattern. I have seen this developing consistently in all models for a few days now. I know this is still a long way out, but seeing this persistently in the models is making me very pessimistic.

I think you're fretting way too much about details way too far in advance. At this time of year, a large digging trough ejecting pieces of energy almost always spells good severe - it's just climatology. Exactly where/when/how much will become clear later. Right now the GFS is showing several days with a H5 trough in the west, persistent lee troughing at the surface, with backed surface winds and good CAPE, starting about Mon. What's not to like? And the omega block after that is simply out of range for the GFS.

Another plus is that I can't chase next week, so everyone is pretty much guaranteed a nice outbreak! ;-)

 

[Logan Karsten]

It may still be too far in advance, but when all I see is a mega omega block developing in all models for the past several runs, it raises concerns moving into middle-late May. Also, as far as next week goes, yes there is a trough in the west, but with time, the energy associated with it begins to dwindle somewhat. By the time the energy finally ejects out of the southwest next week, there is barely any 50+ kt flow at 500 mb left. I wouldn't doubt some good setups closer to the Western Plains where you will be closer to the trough with backed flow and better forcing, but I don't see a huge outbreak across a large area right now.

 

[Brett Roberts]

It may still be too far in advance, but when all I see is a mega omega block developing in all models for the past several runs, it raises concerns moving into middle-late May. Also, as far as next week goes, yes there is a trough in the west, but with time, the energy associated with it begins to dwindle somewhat. By the time the energy finally ejects out of the southwest next week, there is barely any 50+ kt flow at 500 mb left. I wouldn't doubt some good setups closer to the Western Plains where you will be closer to the trough with backed flow and better forcing, but I don't see a huge outbreak across a large area right now.

Sad to say, I'm in strong agreement with your point of view right now. Of course, I've been down on this year's prospects for the Southern Plains ever since it became apparent sometime in March that drought conditions would persist into the summer, so maybe I'm biased. But I, like you, am not seeing anything too encouraging in the available guidance. Next week looks more and more similar to the last major western trough we saw (April 7-10), which sat too far west for several days before shearing out and failing to produce significant chase setups over the Plains states (unless you count the mainly-nocturnal IA event as such). After that, well, the model images speak for themselves. We have not seen a classic, deep, energetic trough dig into the Four Corners area since last fall, and it seems that the pattern has bent over backwards to ensure this doesn't happen (e.g., the early April event I mentioned). I don't doubt that late May and/or June could finally bring some good opportunities to the traditional chase areas W of I-35, but I have a hunch they will be centered over the central and northern Plains states. This isn't a bad thing for everyone, of course!

 

[Jason Foster]

Well, with two great forecasters to my sides this trip out...I'm optimistic about the coming trough. We're going to slowly move our way that direction. In N. OK today (hitting up the same hotel two nights in a row) and probably going to take these new chasers over to Wakita today. Luckily the plains are a great place with or without weather. It's tough for those with specific work schedules, but 90% of the folks do need to just let the scenario play out. Patience is a great virtue to have as a chaser & forecaster. It'll happen...sooner or later...it will happen. Learn to embrace the SEE TEXT days.

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Such Pessimism... If you are waiting on a perfect setup, well, have fun with that. Calling this setup "crap" at this point is just crap. Next week looks very good for the SPs. Sun-Mon probably not. Tues-Wed I'll put my money on. If all holds true there will be great shear, moisture return, DL in western OK. Can't beat that! If the data I see today was for the morning of the "crap" day I would chase that "crap". I am excited about this!!!