Zack Hargrove
EF2
A good example of being scared off by long range ridging happened last year. Everyone thought the end of May was going to be dead in the water... then the big Oklahoma High Risk and Bowdle, SD happened.
Major Pattern Change Coming Up ??
- Thread starter Paul Sherman
- Start date
Kelly Sugden
And if I remember correctly the GFS was the model that showed upper level riding through the week of May 10 and eventually came in line to the EC with troughing as the day got closer.
Elaine Spencer
EF3
Henry at Accuweather is now predicting "an insane outbreak" of 100-200 tornadoes for the 25th-28th of April. I know we have some accuweather guys here, but I will be interested to see if this actually plays out...Guess that question has been answered, in spades.
Last edited by a moderator:
Derek Weston
EF5
Don't give them too much credit. What they do -- I'm guessing, admittedly -- is see what any of us can see the possibility of -- potentially big setup a number of days out on the gfs or other long range solutions -- and then have the nerve to throw out numbers and use excited language.
I could've done the same thing.
Kelly Sugden
30.12Z ECMWF shows exactly what I was mentioning yesterday with the synoptic amplification from a quasi-zonal upper level flow into that of a trough/ridge pattern across the conus come the second week of May. Now that this time period is in the scope of the EC model temporal domain, will have to monitor for consistency. Gut feeling is convective activity will light up across the high plains mid month.
Drew.Gardonia
why?? why during the only lousy 2 and a half weeks that I have to chase, there has to be a trough/Death Ridge??? I been trying for 2 years to get a break! This is so darn frustrating!!!!!!! I only get 2 weeks out of the year (May 9th - 25th) 
Derek Weston
EF5
why?? why during the only lousy 2 and a half weeks that I have to chase, there has to be a trough/Death Ridge??? I been trying for 2 years to get a break! This is so darn frustrating!!!!!!! I only get 2 weeks out of the year (May 9th - 25th)
First week of May looks quiet. (though now thinking that next Fri/Sat might have chance) After that, it is pretty long range to get too worried... may be another week of ridging, may not. But out to the 25? Long range models don't even go that far. I'm sure you'll get some shots.
Kelly Sugden
The 01.12Z GFS is garbage and is completely out of phase with the 01.12Z ECMWF. The 01.12Z ECMWF still shows a large 500 hPa trough moving out of the central Rockies with the Gulf wide open. There is no reason to be fooled into by the GFS long range solution as the deterministic ECMWF/ EC ensembles have been verifying better. Ever wonder why the EC takes so long to come in (around 2:05 pm CDT into AWIPS... because of all the post processing and resultant better output).
Andy Jackson
EF3
The last few GFS runs have been looking fine to me for the end of the work week. The only thing I'm concerned about is the cap but it's still way to early to worry about that.
Bryan Stokes
EF3
why?? why during the only lousy 2 and a half weeks that I have to chase, there has to be a trough/Death Ridge??? I been trying for 2 years to get a break! This is so darn frustrating!!!!!!! I only get 2 weeks out of the year (May 9th - 25th)
Relax. There will be plenty of severe weather between May 9th and May 25th.
Also, in case you don't know, troughs are good.
Bryan
Jason Hobbs
I'm sure the weather will be kind enough to oblige about the same time as I get to close on my house and I'll be too busy to go!
Kelly Sugden
Tuesday or Wednesday (May 10th/11th) starting to looking interesting per 02.12Z ECMWF. A large bowling ball 500 hPa low with very good meridional flow is indicated with the EC showing 60+ deg F dewpoints advecting northward across west-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. I'm not buying the 02.12Z GFS solution, however, the model has trended to less of a zonal upper pattern to more of an amplified solution. Shear looks good as well. Way to early to obsess about mesoscale details but NWP suggests more of an active convective pattern across the high plains...finally! Think its too early to start a FCST thread and still keeping the trend discussion in this longer range thread.
Michael Riedl
EF2
SPC talking the Day 6-8 range up in the long range today.
Looks to get active, I've been rather busy with Finals to look much into the models, but I'll "dive" in tomorrow.
Looks to get active, I've been rather busy with Finals to look much into the models, but I'll "dive" in tomorrow.
Logan Karsten
I definitely see an active pattern next week. However, beyond that time frame, there seems to be a blocking pattern that leads to a potential "death ridge". I didn't want to believe it in the GFS runs, but it was prevalent in the 12Z ECMWF today beyond forecast hour 168. This could easily shift in coming days though. Hopefully I am wrong.
Ben Toms
EF0
Yes, this weekend/early next week look pretty good for severe weather. However, I'm not willing to say that a death ridge is going to show itself after that. Granted I haven't looked at the ECMWF but the GFS is showing troughing and substantial moisture pull up into the central/western high plains throughout the week after. Just as everybody has said, nobody should really assume what is going to happen past 6 days (even then it's just a generic guess). I'm no expert by any means, though, so feel free to correct me.
There will always be those runs that show a ridging pattern..and especially on the long range runs, predictions can vary greatly. I don't think we have anything to worry about. Not to mention we still have my favorite month of June coming up shortly as well!
