Major Pattern Change Coming Up ??

[Jason Foster]

For all those going for the mid season, take a look at the latest Joe Bastardi's video...

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1326

Imo, there is just nothing to be worry about. Like he said... fading La Nina, NAO-, GoM SST++... nothing that would smell like a ridging pattern in May.

You'll have to forgive me for not putting much value in JB's long term forecasts. Granted I haven't followed his record since he left (the company that shall remain nameless...LOL).

Still playing with a late April 30 departure or Ellinwood recently posted on FB pushing it back to May 1-4. Since I SUCK, SUCK, SUCK at long range (and crazy busy getting ready) I'm guessing that means something important. I did read where Ellinwood said the NAO was going neg. and likely to stay. He mentioned that the models may not be picking up the SE ground moisture in the right way (if I'm restating that correctly...did I say I suck at talking meteorology stuff) so that might keep things too dry. Elsewhere I think I read that some rains/moisture is expected in Texas, which would hold the fire dryness off some, if it's even a factor.

 

[Derek Weston]

Tonight's GFS run depicts quite the play May 3rd in the plains... just goes to show you how quickly these long range model will do a 180.

 

[Paul Sherman]

Tonight's GFS run depicts quite the play May 3rd in the plains... just goes to show you how quickly these long range model will do a 180.

And again
Or Not according to the 06z - Lol like a blinkin Flip Flop!

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Meh, I don't follow the GFS model run by model run, particularly on off synoptic hour runs. I just monitor the GFS for trends which has been generally showing troughing out west and moisture return for the first into the second week of May. In addition, the ECMWF also shows an upper level trough forming over the western conus towards the first week of May. Should be quiet across the real tornado alley (high plains) until then.

 

[Jason Foster]

I don't have the talents to fully compare meteorological data to do true analog comparisons, but just skimming through SPC reports, 2006 seems familiar...yeah....I know...

...hey who threw that brick...C O L L U R A !

Just don't say it...right!

 

[Steve Smithson]

Basically throwing all these predictions and forecasts into one pot.... how is the last two weeks of May shaping up, death ridge or storms?

Steve Smithson.

 

[Paul Sherman]

Lol
The Models only go out to the 10th May on GFS At the moment. Even at that sort of range you have about as much chance of that being right as an EF5 Tornado in Alaska

 

[Steve Smithson]

Lol

Take it by that then not to worry at the mo

By the way Paul, whereabouts in Essex are you?

Steve Smithson.

 

[Marko Korosec]

The latest GFS runs are showing pattern slowing down after May 3rd with mostly NW flow. Might be a sign of a small break in the activity in the first two weeks.

 

[Derek Weston]

GFS is rather depressing right now. Showing latest round of activity leading to a gulf that's almost completely scoured of any good juice in early May... this leads to fruitless troughing... and that leads to another CF that wipes out the gulf again in early May... leading to a very cold and boring first half of may.

Then again, it's on the GFS long-range... no worries, kids. (or not)

 

[bradjones]

I sure hope the GFS is out to lunch because all the way out to the 13 th of may it shows absolutely nothing and I mean nothing.

 

[Paul Sherman]

Just goes to show how good the GFS Medium to long term IS In my opinion. I started this thread around 1 week ago when it was showing a major pattern change coming up and it really looks like it has nailed it. Like others nothing looks like happening at all in the first week of May - Eurgh arrive on Thursday LOL

 

[Andy Jackson]

Long range has been pretty consistent with not being consistent. If in it's current state, I would say there are plenty of opportunities coming up just not right away.

 

[Matt Hunt]

Personally I think there's not much value in looking at any long-range model past day 8. At that point it's just more of a guessing game. Sure, it might turn out that it nailed it 10 days out, but look at all the other runs, and I can almost guarantee that things changed and just happened to end up back at where that day 10 forecast placed it. Pick a time around day 8, then go back through the previous runs and see how much of a difference there is between runs. I've been watching a little bit just because I'm planning a chase trip May 7-11. When these dates first came up, there was absolutely nothing showing. Now it's showing a low way up into the Dakota's that weekend. I'm sure things will still change between now and then.

I feel like you can really only accurately pin down things in days 1-3. Days 4-8 you can usually tell for sure there will be a low somewhere in a general area (i.e. plains, midwest, etc), but it'll be tough to pinpoint exactly where at that time. Beyond day 8, anything goes.

Bottom line, I'll chase just about anywhere when I have that time period off, so wherever there is a threat, I'll be there. If there is no threat, then I'll just stay home and save money, and hope for more local chases later on. I guess you international chasers don't have that luxury, unfortunately. :/ Move to the states!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I have just cancelled a weeks chasing starting Sat 30th April.