Major Pattern Change Coming Up ??

[David C Watson]

I really hope that the rest of this month can pull it off, it's been really tornado lacking in OK minus east of I-35 which that phrase "along and east of I-35" really irritates the hell out of me. I would hope that sometime soon that it will be "along and west of 81" instead

 

[Steve Smithson]

Usually memoral weekend does it good for me ;-)

Steve.

 

[Adam Simone]

Gary Lezak a meteorologist in KC has a LRC theory and using that theory he predicted severe weather to occur around the central plains on April 4-15, May 8-14, and May 22-June 1. Looking back Apriil 3-15 was pretty active like he thought, May 8-14 ended up being a little bit of a bust but there was some some severe weather in the area, so hopefully he is right about the end of May as well.

 

[David C Watson]

Late May is a really good time to chase. I like June as well.

 

[Steve Smithson]

Never done June, looking back at some video's there has been some great tornado footage '95 springs to mind and some of Jim Leonard's South Dakota stuff too. I've never been keen on early May, last 2 in May into June seems to work for me out of 6 chases I've only had 1 tornadoless trip 2003 would you believe

Steve.

 

[Logan Karsten]

"Gary Lezak a meteorologist in KC has a LRC theory and using that theory he predicted severe weather to occur around the central plains on April 4-15, May 8-14, and May 22-June 1."

Of course one would expect severe weather to occur somewhere in the plains during those time periods. That's about as bad as me saying I think there will be a major snow event somewhere in the central U.S. during the first half of January.

 

[Adam Simone]

Sorry his prediction was more for the Kansas City area not just the Plains as a whole. Yes obviously there is a good chance of severe weather in the plains during that time period but he wasn't just throwing out dates for no reason. His theory is based on his belief that weather patterns cycle back through every 40-50 days. Meaning a storms system we get in early April will cycle back through in late May basically having the same characteristics. Thats why he picked those dates because we had winter storms back in February that he thought would cycle back through in Early April but this time producing severe storms and then again in late May. He's usually pretty accurate with his long term forecast besides this winter.

 

[rdale]

So if his winter forecast was so horrible, and his spring sevwx outlook is 50/50, is that a good sign or bad sign for the end of May outlook?

 

[David C Watson]

I say there is still some hope for late may and early june but i personally think there will be more of a transition during the june and july to more of an mcs kinda deal which i don't really mind either cause i like staying up and waiting for it

 

[Adam Simone]

So if his winter forecast was so horrible, and his spring sevwx outlook is 50/50, is that a good sign or bad sign for the end of May outlook?

Lol good question. He is 2 for 2 for the severe weather forecast as we did see some severe storms in the KC area on both of the time periods so far just not as good as I was hoping. Hopefully we get something good because I took the last week of May off. I might have to take a week off in June too if we don't get too much in the next couple weeks.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

"Gary Lezak a meteorologist in KC has a LRC theory and using that theory he predicted severe weather to occur around the central plains on April 4-15, May 8-14, and May 22-June 1."

Of course one would expect severe weather to occur somewhere in the plains during those time periods. That's about as bad as me saying I think there will be a major snow event somewhere in the central U.S. during the first half of January.

I'd trust Gary Lezak's forecast about as far as I could pick him up and physically throw him. when i lived there (until Aug 2007) his forecasts were always wrong, and never even close.

About the only thing he could predict accurately is the sun setting and rising.

 

[Michael Riedl]

Well, I am liking what the 0z GFS has for 19 May 2011. Speaking of that date where did that thread go?

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

Well, I am liking what the 0z GFS has for 19 May 2011. Speaking of that date where did that thread go?

thursday looks good but nothing until then, sitting around for a week sucks.

not sure what happened to thread, but maybe start a new one?

 

[Paul Townsend]

Well the current models indeed look quite boring, but take a look at this... that gives some optimism... as far as I've read, transformation from PNA+ into PNA- means favorable pattern for tornadic activity for the Plains.



Hope I am not mistaken, though.

Hi Marko,

It's actually the transition from PNA- to PNA+ that is conducive to Plains tornado chances, as the long wave and attendant short wave troughs move from the west coast of North America toward and through the Plains. If the forecast of PNA is to be believed, then the transition from negative to positive occurring/forecast to occur in near future, should lead to a period of troughiness and severe storm chances, starting shortly.

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

I am very excited about May 22-24, so much I am going to put down a small wager on it. Hemespheric flow looks very unstable, with shortwaves propagating out ahead of depending trough, strong return flow already in place and surging warm front and upper level temperature gradients increasing with this second round of Z anaomolies (Look at the source region for the 500 mb temperature gradients). I will go ahead and fire up my models and focus my forecasting skills (which is mostly taking the models as truth, right?).

I have more confidence in the 22-24th wave than the currently situated high amplitude wave.

Eddie