Boris Konon
EF4
Models are in good agreement that a strong typhoon will pass not far S or over Guam. The system is a TD currently, and will be named
"Sinlaku"soon.
Given all the hype about the forecast super El Nino, this will, of course, bring it to the next level. But let me point out some facts that will
keep things in proper context/perspective.
1) Strong El Ninos present or the pattern going into typically result in a very active Pacific for TCs.
2) Guam tends to get hit more often in such El Nino years.
3) Guam has been hit many times by strong typhoons and actually has the highest incidence of strong TCs for a densely populated area
in the world (see map attached). Population is about 167,000 w/ over 20,000 military personnel.
4) Guam was hit hard by Typhoon Mawar in May 2023. Prior to this, there was a 21-year gap that was atypically quiet for the island w/ the
previous direct hit strong typhoon in 2002.
5) Guam's infrastructure is hardened b/c it gets hit by TCs more, and compared to CONUS hur landfalls, they are much more prepared and
know what to do. For instance, utility poles are made out of concrete, not wood.
6) Some may go (or hype/gaslight), "it's too early in the year for a strong/super typhoon!" False. The western Pacific tropical basin is by far
the most active basin in the world, accounting for 38% of total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) annually, and its "season" never really
ends, just becomes less active in the winter. Super typhoons have been recorded every month of the year. The world does not revolve
around the Atlantic for TCs. I realize it may seem that way, but that is local and media bias for you. TC climatology is not one size fits all.
"Sinlaku"soon.
Given all the hype about the forecast super El Nino, this will, of course, bring it to the next level. But let me point out some facts that will
keep things in proper context/perspective.
1) Strong El Ninos present or the pattern going into typically result in a very active Pacific for TCs.
2) Guam tends to get hit more often in such El Nino years.
3) Guam has been hit many times by strong typhoons and actually has the highest incidence of strong TCs for a densely populated area
in the world (see map attached). Population is about 167,000 w/ over 20,000 military personnel.
4) Guam was hit hard by Typhoon Mawar in May 2023. Prior to this, there was a 21-year gap that was atypically quiet for the island w/ the
previous direct hit strong typhoon in 2002.
5) Guam's infrastructure is hardened b/c it gets hit by TCs more, and compared to CONUS hur landfalls, they are much more prepared and
know what to do. For instance, utility poles are made out of concrete, not wood.
6) Some may go (or hype/gaslight), "it's too early in the year for a strong/super typhoon!" False. The western Pacific tropical basin is by far
the most active basin in the world, accounting for 38% of total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) annually, and its "season" never really
ends, just becomes less active in the winter. Super typhoons have been recorded every month of the year. The world does not revolve
around the Atlantic for TCs. I realize it may seem that way, but that is local and media bias for you. TC climatology is not one size fits all.
