Forecast 3/8-3/10 Central US

[David Wolfson]

Comparing the 18Z just coming in with the 12Z, MOTS as with previous systems to my eye I'm afraid. The system is a bit more open and is starting to scream, "squall line!" for eastern TX, LA, and AK. The elements seem less well synched for you Plains guys with discouraging factors like RFJ subsidence. The best chance on the 9th may be along warm front convergence that might be in the general area of Cairo, IL. FWIW (not much)!

 

[mikegeukes]

I found a couple of links to GFS CAPE Forecast Maps:
Always Check Time and Date of Each Product and The Time of the Run
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/
http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.pw.html

Source: COLA and College of Du Page

Also a paid-site Wright-Weather has GFS CAPE maps
http://www.wright-weather.com/

Amos mentions about dropsondes:
OVERVIEW OF THE 2006 WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE PROGRAM
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/targobs/t...06overview.html
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/targobs/t...et/wsr2006.html

Source: NCEP

Mike

 

[Jason McIntosh]

I expect that this wintery pattern will finally change by next week. The model runs have been trying to dig a huge trough in the SW for some time now. These first two were weaker than I thought they would be, but they did have hail and tornado warnings in CA the other day. These next few coming on shore next week definitely will have more energy. If the Gulf of Mexico opens up for biz it will be on!

My prediction for southern WI is another snowstorm. It will go south, I just know it! Looks good for the Southern Plains and Lower Missouri Valley though.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I will be glad if this setup comes to fruition if only for the fact that it will be the test of whether or not this dry winter will really affect chase season like it has been speculated. Will the dry ground have adverse effects on boundary layer dewpoint depressions? Will the tornadoes be giant, amorphous dust bombs with no funnel visible?

IMO I think we'll be just fine for spring 2006, but I'd like to see one good event to be sure.

 

[Alex Lamers]

NOUS42 KWNO 030309
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0250 UTC THU MAR 03 2006

030250Z...00Z GFS IS OFF AND RUNNING ON TIME..

16 DROPSONDES FROM THE G-IV WERE AVAILABLE
FOR 00Z GFS INGEST..

...

GFS RAOB REPORT..
SLE/72694 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
BRW/70026 - PURGED HGTS AND TEMPS...BAD REPORT

SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Whoever said NOAA jet obs were being ingested is correct. They are sampling the Pacific Coast trough. Tonight's 00Z NAM had some data delay problems so they only ran auto qc and therefore I noticed some changes but the GFS seems reasonably consistent.

Generally all long range models agree a significant shortwave will eject out into the SP Wednesday and then follow the thermal ribbon up into the Great Lakes Thursday. Most agree on a sub 994 mb low Wednesday around 12Z in the "panhandles" area...so I would say those in the Plains and Miss/Ohio Rvr Vlys stay tuned!

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Seems like everyone is picking up on this pattern change that is being advertised (unlike the last couple of times it did this in the extended). Here's a quote from the CPC:

Severe thunderstorms, along with tornadoes, damaging winds, and heavy downpours are possible on March 8-9 from Texas to Illinois.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

This morning's EC and GFS runs appear to be in good concert with the position of the 500 shortwave at 0Z. Nothing like the Armageddon run of yesterday with a massive vorticity maximum overspreading the entire southern plains, but still strong enough to induce good destabilization and vertical motion from the predicted 500 mb height falls in the 100-150 meter range. There appears to only be modest boundary layer moisture at this point and the dryline appears rather diffuse by early evening. I expect an event similar to March 21 of last year with a vigorous synoptic system and a rapid eastward progression of the dryline, likely touching off convection when it interacts with deeper moisture in Eastern Oklahoma/North Texas.

HPC even mentions the possibility of severe weather in the MRFD:

...PLAINS/MS VLY...
THIS WILL OPEN UP THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SET THE STAGE FOR A STRONG EARLY SPRING
CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK WED-THU OVER MID AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ERN
PLAINS/MS VLY.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Thursday looking pretty scary for EC/SE Missouri...C/S Illinois southward into Mississippi. Looks like St.Louis may get hammered if 12z GFS is locking in. Still lots of time (and dreaming) to do. Plan on chasing thats one thing for certain.

 

[John MacKay]

I might have to miss a class or two if this thing starts any farther east. If this thing looks like the outbreak many are hinting at, I will definitely get myself over there.

 

[Sean McMullen]

Much like the time of the convention, I have a Math exam on the 10th, except there's no getting out of this one so the chances of making it out for this event look pretty slim. It's just the beginning of the season though so I'm not too disappointed and it will be nice to see the reports if this even happens.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Much like the time of the convention, I have a Math exam on the 10th, except there's no getting out of this one so the chances of making it out for this event look pretty slim. It's just the beginning of the season though so I'm not too disappointed and it will be nice to see the reports if this even happens.

Want me to write another letter? Thanks for the drink, BTW!

I'm in the same boat, but I have 3 exams; 4 campus work shifts, a driving shift, and a training class I have to work around. My chances aren't all that great, either, but I'm going to damn well try! :lol: As of this writing, I am good from Thursday thru Sunday, but its Wednesday I'm working on; that's the biggie!

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm going to take advantage of the new, relaxed "Weather & Chasing" style forecast threads and chime in with a few non-meteorological thoughts. I'm of course skeptic of models this far out, but have already made plans to chase whatever may come down the pike (actual deep convection). My thinking is, with the severe drought affecting most of traditional Tornado Alley (not just north TX & OK), I'm still very pessimistic about this year's Plains season. Therefore, I am looking at these early-season, out-of-the-alley type systems much more seriously than I would normally be. Honestly, I don't have a lot of hope for a typical Plains season, so I'm going to take whatever shots I get in those areas not traditionally chased. Next week's radar blip is no exception.

Common sense and experience tell me to bide my time through all the early-season, out-of-alley, risky chase scenarios, and save my stuff for the "real" season later in the year. But as of this writing, I truly have no confidence there will be a real season to wait on. I guess what I mean to say is, this year I'm putting the calendar away and just chasing systems as they come.

 

[Sean McMullen]

I had a feeling that would get your attention Tony, but I couldn't imagine trying to explain to my prof the educational benefits of driving 500 miles just to see clouds we often see up here in Nebraska, ( thats how he'd look at it anyways) thanks for the offer though! :lol:

Oh yeah, your welcome for the drinks, plural. :lol: If I stayed down at the bar for any longer I probably would bought every person there a drink, I was deffinately in a good mood as you could probably tell. 8)

 

[brody_clifton]

Same here. Even my week trip to the plains I am planning on taking whenever the system of my choice is approaching the west coast, but more than likely late May/early June again. It'll have to really scream outbreak day 3 with mega dewpoints for me to do the full week deal earlier than that. For day2/day3 targets I can reach one-way in half a day or so from my home in coastal NC, I hope to go anytime if it's weekend and take a couple days off work during the week if it's something that looks to be major. Like last March 26 and Arpil 29, which both busted, but were still fun adventures.
Basically from eastern AR/west MS, an area I can't wait to chase in again, to points east for the 2-day round trips. I probably won't drive any farther north this year than VA/KY to chase, except during the plains trip, then SD/MN will be the northern limit.
I really don't know what to expect this season the the southern plains relative to other years. Hard to imagine the long drought won't have at least some effect but guess we'll see. But I have the gut feeling the southeast and mid-MS valley will see an increase in sig tornado events in spring '06 in comparison to the average.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I know what you mean, Shane. Right now, finances are dictating how far I go, so an AR/MO/TN chase is probably out of the question (unless I can hook up w/ a group to split gas). Of course, if one of the days next week is super-hyped, I might have to beg, borrow, and steal to go. :lol:

Right now, I'm encouraged by the latest model output which shows that the Gulf will be *wide* open for the beginning of next week. With such a nice upper-level ridge setting up in the eastern U.S., return flow should begin in earnest by the beginning of next week. In addition, shortwave troughs will enhance the return flow by inducing lee troughing (thereby creating a strong pressure gradient). The atmosphere is really addressing the biggest problem that the vast majority of severe setups have this time of year: a lack of high-octane Gulf moisture. This seems to be one of those rare years in which Gulf air has been relatively unperturbed by repeated continental airmass intrusions. (FYI, such was the case during the week prior to 3/13/90.)

Gabe