Forecast 3/8-3/10 Central US

At least my original forcast of more snow is starting to look like an extinct possiblity. I just saw the latest GFS and Saturday afternoon and evening look pretty good out in IA. I think the main stuff all week will be down in MO.
 
As of right now, I not as excited at the prospects of Wednesday. 850hPa winds veering and sfc winds due south. To me it looks like a big squall line overnight wednesday into thursday. If we could get the winds to back a little more, then we might be on. But the last couple of model runs has made me sad, plus, the forecast soundings look like crap. :cry:

For Thursday, I think the setup is a lot better. The sfc low sitting in the TN valley and 850hPa and 700hPa winds really cranking to give a bunch of lowlevel shear. A concern I have with this day is the convective debris left over from wednesday's stuff. Hopefully it won't ruin the low 60's Td's from reaching the TN valley.
 
As of right now, I not as excited at the prospects of Wednesday. 850hPa winds veering and sfc winds due south. To me it looks like a big squall line overnight wednesday into thursday. If we could get the winds to back a little more, then we might be on. But the last couple of model runs has made me sad, plus, the forecast soundings look like crap. :cry:

For Thursday, I think the setup is a lot better. The sfc low sitting in the TN valley and 850hPa and 700hPa winds really cranking to give a bunch of lowlevel shear. A concern I have with this day is the convective debris left over from wednesday's stuff. Hopefully it won't ruin the low 60's Td's from reaching the TN valley.
Click to expand...

I would tend to think that a veered low-level jet over the Plains would advect in drier low-level air.....and may help cut back on the amount of convective debris for Thursday...
 
Things are looking like crap now. At least it will be nice to have some warmer temps creep up into MI, and I can finally get out and do some jogging, bike riding, etc..

I'd still settle for a good ice/snow storm, as long as the warmer days outnumber the colder days and we aren't "locked in".
 
No clue on what your seeing....

Go pull up some forecast soundings from the region during the period. The 18z NAM shows a quite favorable scenerio for supercells, and even tornadoes -- with forecast soundings showing >1000 j/kg MLCAPE and weak to no CIN by 21z (if you warm and moisten the surface layer just a bit, any remaining CIN completely is destroyed and CAPE jumps a few hundred more joules). Soundings further east in MO show stronger CIN, which would require a good amount of forcing to lift boundary layer parcels to their LFC. Otherwise, 0-1km SRH from across the area is mostly 200 m2/s2 -- with sfc-6 km deep-layer shear of more than >50 kts (with mid-level SR winds >30 kts).

In other words, there is still potential for supercells on WED and THUR -- moderate boundary layer instability, accompanied by low-level veering (yielding good SRH) and deep environmental wind shear for rotating updrafts.

wind profile on wed looks like sh!t, screams squall line.
Click to expand...
 
I took my first stab at a forecast for this potential outbreak on Thursday. Now I will be the first to admit that my knowledge of tornado and hurricane history and climatology is much higher than of forecasting, but I do know a bit. I posted the forecast on my non-chasing forum that I created a week and a half ago due to its length, the size of one of the images, and the fact that I would have posted it there one way or another anyway.

http://s3.phpbbforfree.com/forums/tornadoc...post-18.html#18

p.s. The name of the forum is Severe Storm Center. I know that its URL is the name of Jeff Snyder's website. That was a brain fart (one of thousands I routinely have) on my part in creating the site (even though I knew of his site) that I unfortunately cannot change (stupid free forum). :oops:
 
Anyone want to team up and chase together on the 8th & 9th? I might go anyways but would be nice to share expenses with someone!

Let me know,
Scott Olson.
 
It is definitely looking like a stormy week down this way. The PAH area has been POUNDED by tornadoes over the past four years. Relentless.

Hopefully this week does not add another round of twisters to the list. Heavy rain is going to be an issue as well.
 
I'm not confident thsi thing will be as far east as progged yet. I remember a system in March 1-2 years ago that looked like Ar/Tenn/Ms 3-5 days out but I was chasing Western Oklahoma on the day of. I'm just not confident in the models based on their performance recentely, but they have been very consistent with this system. I'll probably chase this system if its Arkansas/Mizzou anyways, despite the hills and trees :(
 
I'll back Beau on that one...our area has been hit pretty hard. After chasing everyday for a solid week in 03 and then taking it on the chin the night of the 6th (F4 in the backyard), i dont disagree one bit. Seems like we're dodging the bullet every other day when its warm and moist. And with the models being consistant on it all, it worries me some. Like always, nice to see a nader', but never want it to hurt anyone. Will be interesting to see if it pans out. First chase of the year could be a cheap one!! :lol:
 
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