Forecast 3/8-3/10 Central US

Mike Hollingshead Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:37 pm Post subject:

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It is worth noting the 12z ECMWF has pretty much the same sfc low for 12z Thursday as tonight's 0z GFS has. GFS is a lot more in line with the ECMWF. If you like that area Friday, what about Thursday? Thursday seems impressive. It looks like one should have at least one good day between Wed and next Sat.
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Mike, I think you are correct in saying that there should be at least one good day between Wednesday and Saturday. After all it is very unlikely that tonight's 120 to 192 hour forecast will verify. I suppose it is a little ridiculous to discuss timing and intensity of convection at this point, however, my SDS is compelling me to fantasize a little.
Taking tonight's GFS as truth, it looks to me like Thursday, is not timed well. Convective initiation occurs during the morning and wind profiles look like they would be unidirectional, suggesting perhaps more of a squall line event with severe hail and wind. Wednesday, after I took a closer look, seems like, IMO, it would be interesting across central Kansas as the lee cyclone strengthens over SW Kansas and a warm front is pushed northward into southern and central Kansas by a strong low level jet. Provided higher boundary layer dewpoints can reach central Kansas by max heating, shear and instability would prove favorable for some discrete storms along the warm front.
 
That lack of moisture might help. I really have no clue though.

ICT HWO on Saturday hints at thunderstorm chances Monday and Wednesday nights. That would work great into my schedule if it could happen.

But, if something happens in KS on Wed., it will more than likely tweak with the Thur. setup. Worst case in my mind is moisture return doesn't make it in time for Wed. setup in KS and gives way to some widespread thunderstorms that mess with the Thur. setup.

I'm really hoping that doesn't happen. I don't know much either way here, though, as the GFS seems to lay off on Wed. as of now. We have to see the next few runs before getting too excited over this setup, but the potential exists for it to happen.
 
SPC is strongly worded, but isn't this also the first spring the SPC 4-8 has been publicly available?
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I believe so. However, the wording being so strong for such a long-term forecast (in severe weather terms) is really what caught my attention.
 
Well the 12Z GFS is back to MOTS. Less tropical connection and developing Rex block action over AK (gee! when have we seen this before....) holds back and diminishes the progressive energy that gets across the Rockies.

The 12Z story says the big storm for the southwest has just about evaporated and events after Wednesday are trashed unless you luck out in the Dubuque - La Crosse area with a low-topped cell traveling at 50kts or so. Cairo, IL, is still on the program for Wednesday afternoon, though not spectacular.

Again, it looks like like early Wednesday morning is our one chance for any measurable rain here in Phoenix and it's far from a slam dunk based on this run. :roll: FWIW.
 
I wonder if the 80 kt plus 850 mb winds that the 132 hour GFS is forecasting over KY and TN will verify. :p
 
Latest GFS is less pleasing (by moving the surface low further to the southwest and weakening -- and veering surface flow a bit) but there is still the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms across the upper Mississippi valley on WED afternoon and evening. The forecasted kinematic profiles are rather outrageous -- with deep, quality moisture being advected into the warm sector by late WED morning. I don't favor this GFS run at all, with the surface low being filled in by a solid 5-6mb by 00z THUR and weaker isallobaric forcing (past GFS run showed strongly backed flow east of the cyclone).

At any rate, the most probable corridor for supercell tornadoes would be in eastern OK and KS and into MO and AR on WED afternoon -- as surface Tds rise to 60F/near 60F -- and diabatic heating will be at it's peak (provided we get insolation) to augment surface-based CAPE. The severe threat should ultimately be maximized invof of warm frontal zone -- where low-level ascent/CAPE and vorticity will be enhanced.

I have no clue on what I'll personally do... I do have confidence in this week, but I'm not sure if I'd be willing to chase this stuff. I think I'll wait til storms move <50mph :wink:
 
David Wolfson Posted: Sat Mar 04, 2006 11:29 am Post subject:

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Well the 12Z GFS is back to MOTS. Less tropical connection and developing Rex block action over AK (gee! when have we seen this before....) holds back and diminishes the progressive energy that gets across the Rockies.

The 12Z story says the big storm for the southwest has just about evaporated and events after Wednesday are trashed unless you luck out in the Dubuque - La Crosse area with a low-topped cell traveling at 50kts or so. Cairo, IL, is still on the program for Wednesday afternoon, though not spectacular.

Again, it looks like like early Wednesday morning is our one chance for any measurable rain here in Phoenix and it's far from a slam dunk based on this run. FWIW.
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IMO this mornings GFS just looks more March like. It still indicates a decent chance for severe weather as far north as Kansas and Nebraska but only on Tuesday, due to the initial front scouring out the moisture. The better severe weather risk, according to the 12z GFS, looks like it would be confined to East Texas, Southern Arkansas northeastward into the Tennessee valley, which if I am not mistaken is the climatologically favored area for early March. The thing I am most excited about, besides hearing the sound of thunder again, is just seeing that it is still physically possible for it to rain here again. It is relatively dry here in eastern Nebraska and it would be nice if we could get an inch or two of moisture to moisten things up a little before storm season really gets here.
 
Well the "new"(0z) ECMWF still has a similar show as it did on the last run, so that is good. The GFS just moved things east again like it had on its last 12z run. I like seeing the ECMWF holding firm. Though maybe that will change when its 12z run comes out.

GFS really loves to flip flop between 12z and 0z runs it seems. Where is the quickest location to update the ECMWF?
 
Alright! WI is in on the 4-8 day SPC severe weather outlook!

ANOTHER EVENT THEN APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 7 FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MS VALLEY...AND THEN ACROSS THE MS AND OH VALLEYS/GREAT LAKES DAY 8.
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Too bad we can't see more fields from the ECMWF... Many regard that model to be more accurate (on the whole) than the GFS, but there just isn't a whole lot of ECMWF output to examine.

{Still crossing my fingers that everything holds off until Weds since I can't chase Tuesday}...

EDIT: I certainly is nice to see the NAM forecast >3000 sbCAPE this time of year, that's for sure!! I'm referring to the 12z NAM forecast for Monday afternoon in ne TX. In years past, I remember just hoping for 1000j/kg CAPE in March, so that much instability this early in the season is awesome.
 
I wouldn't count on it, Tim, except maybe for some elevated hailstorms on the north side of a warm front. I'm frankly baffled by the SPC's decision to outlook areas as far north as the Canadian border, since the intention of the day 4-8 outlook was to highlight areas where a substantial/significant severe weather risk (originally 25%, now 30% probability of some kind of severe by the Day 1 outlook).
 
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