Forecast 3/8-3/10 Central US

Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures
gulfmex.c.gif

15C = 59F
20C = 68F
25C = 77F
30C = 86F

Mike
 
I am reminded of old classics like the first week of May 2003...except on a mini scale. Western trough...springtime dynamics and a bunch of shortwaves cycling through the Plains. SPC analogs continue to look good forecasting a broad area of potential severe weather danger areas from as far north as Des Moines, Chicago, Milwaukee and Grand Rapids south to Texas and the Gulf Coast. Will be interesting. Not a whole lot of model consistency on s/w timing or track but it seems that generic trend will be to see at least several major cyclones eject northeastward through the heart of the country. I'm expecting some nice severe events in several successive days beginning Wednesday or Thursday.
 
ECMWF Progs for Thursday morning.... :shock:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmw...50_temp_144.gif

987 mb sfc low in far sw KS taking it to Des Moines for Friday morning as a 985 mb low.

Strong shortwave moving ne through w TX.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmw...500_spd_144.gif

Looking at what is available on CODs ECMWF charts I'd assume the low level moisture would be there for this. C KS south to N TX on east better be ready.
Click to expand...

The 250 mb jet streak position from the ECWMF would suggest that Wednesday will be the S. Plains day, and Thursday will be the day for the southeast.

Gabe
 
I guess I figured with a strong sfc low in se CO/sw KS at 6 a.m. and in Des Moines the following morning, that around noon Thursday it'd still be in the central plains...say south of Salina KS. The dryline would then bow east a bit and arc down the plains into TX. I'd pick a spot in se KS if I had to right now.

That is of course after the Wednesday chase.
 
You know, I find it ironic that all this is going to happen during my area's Severe Weather Awareness Week. Talk about raising awareness!
 
This is one of the few years that Alabama has gone through Severe Weather Awareness Week with no severe weather threat......... We usually get the real thing after our practice run. :D
 
I'm beginning to get convinced! The model story is still Cairo, IL, late afternoon on the 9th. Get a load of the dynamic system following right behind. It's probably a little too early to get the best theta-e up to northern IL where it needs to be, but man, the setup on the late afternoon of the 11th is truly awesome to my eyes. FWIW.
 
Tonight's GFS for all of next week through the weekend is nothing short of INSANE. That is simply wild.
 
Now I am impressed. Its still a 7 day forecast, and the GFS has not been doing very good the last few months, but tonight's GFS looks scary, especially for SE KS, SW MO, NE Ok and NW AR next Friday! For what its worth if the GFS is to be believed there might even be severe hail with dry slot convection as far north as Sioux City, IA. With a massive blizzard for the western Dakotas. The GFS has had pretty good run to run consistency in forecasting next weeks large scale pattern but has definitely been trending toward a much stronger solution over the last 48 hours or so. This mornings ECMWF also pointing to what looks like a severe weather event for late next week. However it looks to me like the ECMWF places its emphasis on Thursday and Saturday. I can't help but to think what next week would be like if this were the beginning of May instead of the beginning of April. Correct me if I am wrong, but in a situation like this so early in the season I wonder if their will be enough of a capping inversion to suppress convective development long enough to allow sufficient instability to develop.
 
It is worth noting the 12z ECMWF has pretty much the same sfc low for 12z Thursday as tonight's 0z GFS has. GFS is alot more in line with the ECMWF. If you like that area Friday, what about Thursday? Thursday seems impressive. It looks like one should have at least one good day between Wed and next Sat.
 
I'm getting excited looking at the latest GFS run!

Unless things get crazy there should be at least one major severe weather event between the Southern/Central Plains, Southeast, or the Ohio Valley.

Got my oil change tonight, so I'm ready for a lot of driving next week; will probably cover more than 5 states.
 
I've got that concern about the cap as well. It can very well happen, but it's going to be one of those events dependent on the previous day's activity, if there is any. We saw many days ruined due to that last year.
 
I wonder if the unseasonable lack of snow on the high terrain in the southwest will help the EML and cap strength any...despite it being early March?
 
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