Farmers’ Almanac

[Ashley]

So although the Farmers’ Almanac has no scientific facts or logic to back up anything it says, it's just lucky guessing at best sometimes, it's great to read when there isn't anything in the forecast worth the time..


"In the 2014 Farmers’ Almanac, we predicted that “tornado alley,â€￾ in the nation’s midsection, would see an active year, with a dangerous flare-up in April and again in June.
In particular, watch for a strong tornado threat tornado Central and Southern Texas, as well as Louisiana, in the opening days of April. Ongoing stormy weather throughout the month will mean continued risk.
Another heavy storm system could bring tornado activity in the opening week of May, as could a few locally strong thunderstorms in Oklahoma and Texas at the end of the month.
June will bring even more thunderstorms with the potential for tornadoes, particularly near the official start of summer on the 21st."

 

[Skip Talbot]

Is there a disclaimer in the almanac that states it's for entertainment purposes only? Otherwise I don't really see how it differs from Kevin Trudeau's weight loss books which landed him a 10 year federal prison sentence for duping his customers with false claims. Or the millions raked in by televangelists giving dubious claims. America seems to thrive on snake oil though. We better "go with our guts" and request the weeks around June 21 off now though.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

lol... it's basically the opposite of the forecast I made. There is some potential in early April, but I doubt it will be an active month on the whole.

 

[Ashley]

Well.. no one really knows how they do it. Its "secretive". Just what people turned to before meterology became something. I wouldn't put any money on it, just something for my amusement.

& I do agree, beginning of April doesn't hold much hope.

 

[Jeff Duda]

So although the Farmers’ Almanac has no scientific facts or logic to back up anything it says, it's just lucky guessing at best sometimes...

I'm not sure that's entirely true. I think there may have been some hints of science used in the almanac. Granted, back in its early days there wasn't much science to go on, but that doesn't mean every single thing in it is a pure speculative guess void of science.

"In the 2014 Farmers’ Almanac, we predicted that “tornado alley,” in the nation’s midsection, would see an active year, with a dangerous flare-up in April and again in June.
In particular, watch for a strong tornado threat tornado Central and Southern Texas, as well as Louisiana, in the opening days of April. Ongoing stormy weather throughout the month will mean continued risk.
Another heavy storm system could bring tornado activity in the opening week of May, as could a few locally strong thunderstorms in Oklahoma and Texas at the end of the month.
June will bring even more thunderstorms with the potential for tornadoes, particularly near the official start of summer on the 21st."

This is definitely too specific to be considered a legitimate forecast. For a given year, it would be nearly impossible to hit any forecast on the synoptic scale or below, which is what this is an example of. Even planetary scale entities are very difficult to predict. Take the inter- and intraseasonal oscillations like ENSO and NAO. Forecast correlation is pretty nil past two weeks or so for the NAO. Even now CPC is predicting an ~50% chance of an El Nino developing in late 2014. While some people are jumping on this and screaming SUPERELNINO TO KILL US ALL, the probabilistic forecast means it's almost as likely not to happen at this point as it is to happen given the information and quality of the forecasts.