Niccolò Ubalducci
Hello everyone,
I would like to open this debate to argue with you about this tornado season characterized by a moderately strong Nino, its effects will lead in the Southern Plains in the three-month period even more favorable to chase tornadoes, from March to May 2010.
Here you can see the last ENSO discussion:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
Now, the thought of some forecasters is that, in years of moderate-strong Nino at the expense of a below average start of the season (numbero of Tornado), (caused by the continual raids from the cold Arctic and lack of sufficient hot and humid currents from the Gulf of Mexico), we will see a decided increase in the number of tornado to get to a real outbreak of the season in the very late spring and early summer. The period could mark the turning point STARTED likely to the first ten days of April, to concentrate the phenomena potentially 2-3 outbreack between the end of April and the first three weeks of May.
I support this theory, but I would like to stimulate discussion and know your opinions on this.
This is a publication of a few years ago, very interesting and clear.
http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/stu.../tornado/articles/elninolaninatornadosusa.pdf
Here you can find some interesting ideas for discussion:
http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/71587.pdf
Thanks for your attentions
Niccolò Ubalducci
Thunderstorm Team
I would like to open this debate to argue with you about this tornado season characterized by a moderately strong Nino, its effects will lead in the Southern Plains in the three-month period even more favorable to chase tornadoes, from March to May 2010.
Here you can see the last ENSO discussion:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
Now, the thought of some forecasters is that, in years of moderate-strong Nino at the expense of a below average start of the season (numbero of Tornado), (caused by the continual raids from the cold Arctic and lack of sufficient hot and humid currents from the Gulf of Mexico), we will see a decided increase in the number of tornado to get to a real outbreak of the season in the very late spring and early summer. The period could mark the turning point STARTED likely to the first ten days of April, to concentrate the phenomena potentially 2-3 outbreack between the end of April and the first three weeks of May.
I support this theory, but I would like to stimulate discussion and know your opinions on this.
This is a publication of a few years ago, very interesting and clear.
http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/stu.../tornado/articles/elninolaninatornadosusa.pdf
Here you can find some interesting ideas for discussion:
http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/71587.pdf
Thanks for your attentions
Niccolò Ubalducci
Thunderstorm Team
Last edited by a moderator:
