Chase vac: May 13th to 25th or May 20th to June 1st?

[JF Massicotte]

Hi guys...

I am now planning my chase vacations and we are planning on going from May 13th to May 25th. But when I look to trend there seem to be a break from May 15th to May 20th so should we go from May 20th to June 1st?


There is also a poss. for April 29th to May 12th... is this period really a higher potential?


Thanks for answering!

 

[Chris Hayes]

I would instinctively go the last 2 weeks of May. My chase vacation will be the last 2 weeks of May, and first 1 or 2 weeks of June.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree with Chris. We are planning on going the last week of May through the first week of June.

 

[afischer]

It seems to me that the very middle of May more often than not seems to be a down period with shortwave ridging of some sort. I think you can even see this evidence in the number of historical violent tornado days (per date) in the plains, which I believe is what you suggested as well. For that reason I'd probably go with May 20-June 1.

But, there are always exceptions (e.g. 5/15/03, 5/15/99).

Early May can be good too. The days I've seen tornadoes most commonly have fallen during the first week of May.

You may do just as well to flip a coin.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Thank you guys...

We finally are going from April 29th to May 10th since it was easier for one of my partner to get off job on that period.

 

[Joel Wright]

This is a decision my chase partner Jeremy Ludin and I will be making as well. Unfortunately for me, I need to give work at least a few weeks notice to make sure everything in the lab will be covered in my absence. Our chase vacation will be about 10 days the way it's looking now.

It really is sort of a crapshoot, unless you're one of the lucky ones who can take off from work with little notice. Each year is different so it'll take a little luck to catch a really good week, or two. Obviously, the longer the vacation the greater chance of a decent storm system.

I think we'll end up taking ours sometime in the last half of May. Mainly because sometimes in early May cold air intrusions can contaminate the gulf. Yet again, this isn't always the case, but I feel the last half of May should have a greater chance for deep moisture.

One thing I can see being sort of tough is watching a large outbreak from home the week before our scheduled chase. But, I guess that's the chance we all take. Unless we're one of the lucky ones who live down in chase country.

 

[Laura Duchesne]

My group is going last week of May and first week of June... pretty much same time as last year, but HOPEFULLY more tornado-active, although truth be told, you never know what it will be like before you go.