Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[James Gustina]

Even though the start of chase season is still a full 31 days away, we seem to finally be clawing out of the winter-induced insanity that strikes every year. I'm interested to hear thoughts about the overall quality of the season ahead of us. This is obviously the fuzziest guess-work and conjecture but it's always fun to make a bold guess and have it be correct.

Personally, with this omega block breaking down in the next few days with less high-amplitude troughs riding the roller coaster down, I'm thinking the southern Plains will be in the grip of winter going into late-February but the lack of more sharp polar fronts sweeping down the Plains should preclude the type of moisture scouring that we saw last year in the gulf early on. I am still very concerned about the drought conditions that have been ever-so-slightly alleviated out in the panhandles and western OK/KS. Having the dryline mix east of 35 by magic hour is a distinct possibility on a lot of early setups in my opinion. Overall I think it'll be a better early season with an average chase season since we're hitting the less amplified, more zonal flow regime pattern at the right time, but I am most likely wrong.

 

[Shane Adams]

As most have been saying, the number one thing that has me pessimistic going into 2014 is the drought (it seems like we talk about this every year nowadays). In the past I've tried to do gross, generalized comparisons to past years to see what might happen regarding the S Plains Spring season. One thing I've noticed (and this is probably just coincidence) but it seems as if seriously dry/hot Summers and/or severe drought seem to indicate an early season, that could likely completely shutdown by the peak of the year. 2006 followed an exceptional drought for much of the latter part of 2005, and it seemed to be humming along okay until the beginning of May, when a death ridge set in and everything was toast. 2011 was one of the hottest Summers in recent years, and 2012 did a very similar act to 2006, with the "meat" of the season coming fairly early followed by an extended "shutdown". But as always, this is just idle speculation for the sake of conversation.

I am wondering when the S Plains will ever feel any moisture again, as we've been locked in what seems like almost daily 180 windshifts and (dry) FROPAS to some degree. I'm so used to static shocks they hardly phase me anymore. It's been arid for quite a while, which is the cause for the annoying 30+ temp swings from night to day, and even day to day. Definitely not a pattern conducive for setting up severe weather season. I will offer one little nugget of insight: I spoke with Jim Leonard a few weeks back, and mentioned it was a good thing there was troughing in the east right now, because the timing of the pattern breakdown and subsequent western troughing would be better timed for Spring. He felt if we were already experiencing consistent troughs in the west, the reverse would likely happen, and the pattern shift would be ill-timed for the start of severe season. In any case, all we can do is wait. But to answer the question of this thread, I honestly have to say at this time, I'm pessimistic. Hopefully in a month I'll have reason to change that line of thinking.

 

[Brett Roberts]

The last 40 days have been close to the dagger for any prospects of major drought recovery in W TX/OK in time for the early season. We should see some western troughing next week with a shot at widespread precip (though better chances farther east, as usual in recent years), but the GFS and its ensembles currently show a return to eastern troughing quickly thereafter.

If there's one thing I've learned about long-range forecasting in nine seasons chasing, it's that there's little point even trying to call the overall quality of a season in advance. The best Plains season I've chased was 2010, and not only was everyone worried up until early May, but one of the forecasters I respect most said he thought the season was doomed to sub-par status -- and that was in April, not January. Of course, it's fun to speculate, and I do it plenty in spite of knowing this.

However, this message of futility comes with a caveat. Quality severe weather setups seem to be increasingly dependent on soil moisture with southwestern extent in the Plains. To be clear, I believe soil moisture is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a "good" season in areas like the TX and OK Panhandles, western OK, and southwestern KS. Because this region has been hardest-hit by the ongoing drought, and the prospects for extraordinary precipitation the next 30 days look slim at best, I feel somewhat confident in saying this will be the fourth consecutive year with relatively few (if any) good tornado days in the southern High Plains.

As for other regions, I agree that the drought is a bad thing on balance, as it can encourage the early development of a death ridge when the pattern is already leaning that way. Plus, the effect of soil moisture on boundary-layer moisture is still nonzero, no matter where you are. Overall, though, for the I-35 corridor and then areas farther NW, I'm still in the "anything can happen" camp for 2014, hedging slightly toward pessimism.

 

[James Gustina]

If there's one thing I've learned about long-range forecasting in nine seasons chasing, it's that there's little point even trying to call the overall quality of a season in advance. The best Plains season I've chased was 2010, and not only was everyone worried up until early May, but one of the forecasters I respect most said he thought the season was doomed to sub-par status -- and that was in April, not January. Of course, it's fun to speculate, and I do it plenty in spite of knowing this.

I can't argue there, it's essentially putting on a blindfold before being handed a gun to shoot a target two miles away. I agree with with what you said though, the drought conditions further west of here are pretty concerning. Soil moisture isn't the be-all-end-all of most setups but the drier ground seems to aid in mixing out quality boundary layer moisture, especially on March and early April days where certain setups are a decent moisture fetch away from a good day. Higher moisture content before the bulk of it is drawn up can only help, especially in the panhandles.

I'm mainly hoping we don't see what Shane mentioned, where roughly two weeks decide the quality of a chaser's season before going into a ridge-induced deathzone.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I spoke with Jim Leonard a few weeks back, and mentioned it was a good thing there was troughing in the east right now, because the timing of the pattern breakdown and subsequent western troughing would be better timed for Spring.

This is exactly what I have been saying/thinking. The patterns always balance themselves out and come around. I would much rather have this current patter now than April. Around here, this is a top tier extreme winter that will rank with some of Chicago's worst. I did some digging around to compare it to years with similar extreme winters and noticed that the following springs/summers went both ways. We had some of our worst tornado and severe weather outbreaks, along with some our most chilly, boring springs/summers. There didn't seem to be a middle ground. Which way this year will go? I have no clue.

Given how soaked the east half of the nation is...if the theory that this will affect drylines and frontal boundary positions I could see a 2008 type year where east of the Mississippi is where most of the action will fall. Of course this means getting out your HP storm strategy playbook. I think we'll see a more active season than the past 2 (not a hard feat to achieve though) but the setups might be less than ideal.

Its fun to speculate, and I don't claim to be an expert, but those are my "gut" guesses right now.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I think w/o a major ENSO phase in the mix and drought conditions persisting, we are very likely to see a year similar to last year. The dryline will be most active just west of I-35 and the same region will be under the gun once more. One interesting note, it looks like January will close with only 4 tornadoes (preliminary count). In January of 2003 no tornadoes were officially recorded, but in May of that year, 244 tornadoes were recorded.

With this crummy drought pattern, the secret is to chase hard when the few opportunities arise.

W.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I've been pretty intrigued with a hypothesis I heard somewhere a couple or three years ago, that a good snowpack in Colorado in the spring equates to a good chase year, and vice versa. Believe it (the hypothesis) or not, but it seems to make at least a little bit of sense to me. A good snowpack, in combination with some prevailing westerlies blowing the cool, moistened air over top the boundary layer in The Alley, well, it couldn't hurt, could it?

FWIW, the current snowpack is more or less average.

http://www.cpachecojr.com/cgi-bin/work/snow/snow_update_2.cgi?area=colo&format=1

A great deal of the snowfall occurs in March and April, though, so where it stands on April 15 is anybody's guess. Even being 30% below average right now is meaningless.

 

[James Gustina]

It's a complete crapshoot but the good news is there's been a trend towards SW Oklahoma getting some decent snowpack in the coming weeks as well. I'm still somewhat pessimistic about this season but I've had it happen where I've been completely wrong about my guesses about a season just because of one factor or another. With any luck, I will be grievously wrong and the drought will be lessened enough before March to give a good shot of decent dryline days further west.

 

[Tim Carley]

I think w/o a major ENSO phase in the mix and drought conditions persisting, we are very likely to see a year similar to last year. The dryline will be most active just west of I-35 and the same region will be under the gun once more.

Warren, I'm with you. I have been keeping a close eye on the weekly ENSO briefing, and I swear this is looking to be very similar to last year. The next few weeks look to provide some drought relief to the Plains. I'm voting for a very active middle/late May in the I-35 corridor. I am also looking to the Mississippi Delta and Alabama areas in March. (maybe just wish casting for some close chases for me!)

 

[James Gustina]

GFS and Euro both have been pretty consistent with a ridge moving into the central and southern Plains towards the middle of the period. If this pans out there's the potential to start having consistent, gradual moisture return towards the middle of the month with a lower likelihood of sweeping frontal passages out of the Great White North. It's still fuzzy at best but that might be the pattern shift we need before March so we don't end up with the same scenario as March/April last season.

 

[Jeff Duda]

GFS and Euro both have been pretty consistent with a ridge moving into the central and southern Plains towards the middle of the period. If this pans out there's the potential to start having consistent, gradual moisture return towards the middle of the month with a lower likelihood of sweeping frontal passages out of the Great White North. It's still fuzzy at best but that might be the pattern shift we need before March so we don't end up with the same scenario as March/April last season.

What tools are you using to make this determination? I just checked the ECMWF, FIM, GFS, and NAEFS and I don't see any consistent trend for a ridge (axis) to move any further east than about 100 mi east of the Pacific Coast during the next 384 hr. Even past 200 hrs or so, ensemble mean heights in all of these EPSs tend to hold onto this low amplitude but broad troughing across most of the CONUS that we're currently seeing. However, even 384 hrs out is still only Feb. 21st at the time of this writing. I don't see anything from these NWP forecasts that suggests the pattern you mentioned showing up in time to get the severe weather season started. It's just too far out at this time, and there's no guarantee a given pattern will show up or set in for a few weeks.

The CFS graphics on Greg Carbin's site don't show any periods of consistent presence of supercell storm ingredients through the next 45 days, although non-rigorous examination of this graphics system over the past year suggests the CFS won't capture most events until they're within 6 days or so.

CPC outlooks over the next 1-3 months suggest slightly elevated chances of cold air remaining across the northern/central US, while precipitation across the Plains could go either way (although the SW US is outlooked to remain drier than normal).

I'd have to say there's probably very little information pointing towards the spring/summer severe weather season going any one particular way at this time. At this point in the year you pretty much have to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

 

[James Gustina]

Sorry I didn't mean to imply that it would kick off severe weather season, just that a pattern shift may be coming. I'm not foolhardy enough to make conclusive statements on the season. I was referring to the shift to less high-amplitude waves sweeping through the CONUS. Ridge was definitely the wrong word to use, a less extreme meridional flow regime a bit down the road would have been the right way to describe it.

Edit: I also just noticed I was looking at the 06Z of the GFS and not the 00Z from last night. Whoops.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

What's the latest on the ENSO? I'd put more weight into that on what chase season will be that anything.

 

[GPhillips]

What's the latest on the ENSO? I'd put more weight into that on what chase season will be that anything.

CPC does periodic diagnostics and outlooks on ENSO here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#forecast

which would suggest relatively neutral conditions through the spring.

 

[Derek Weston]

I've not come across any analysis that makes me feel strongly one way or the other.

I understand the concerns with drought conditions having a negative effect, but, I generally take drought conditions mostly as an affirmation of what the prevailing weather patterns have been. Patterns unconducive to precipitation are naturally unconducive to severe weather. With a pattern change comes reduction in drought and more severe weather. I question the actual level of feedback provided by drought stricken geographical locations in relation to severe weather.

ENSO... I've never noticed any strong correlation there. One of our favorite chase seasons -- 2004 -- was ENSO neutral. I'm sure it matters, to an extent, but not a big time variable.

I'm sure at this juncture, if we were to key on anything, it'd be large scale global weather patterns. (and if I sounded ignorant with that statement, it's because I am; not that we're close to making any long term prognostication models worth a damn with such information, to my knowledge)

Basically: who the hell knows.