Approach of the Second Season...

The second season for myself is usually better than the first. So far this year I can definetely say already that the second season has started cause Saturday had some decent storms and the structure and also a huge anvil with very well defined mammatus already blew away all the spring/summer storms. As long as winter doesnt kick in till the season comes my second season is usually great. Lets consider October 4th 2006, a tornado warned storm with a confirmed touchdown Southwest from me was moving up the Snake river plain, I intercepted the storm 50 miles from my house and followed the storm back to my house.

normal_100_0668.jpg


normal_100_0655.jpg


and here is a video of that storm with timelapse......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDFAY0u3i5U


It has been 2 years and still no repeat, but experiencing this storm once in October gives me hope every year around this time. It was a great storm chase and I can only hope I can get another chance at a wonderful Pacific Northwest Tornado or tornado warned storm.

Heres to a hopefully active Second season. Happy Chasing....
 
Awesome video Gerrit.

I do not like the latest runs on the Oct 3rd system. I hope they trend further west....nor am I excited about a west coast ridge because that means we here in the midwest will likely shiver....ok so im a bit locally biased.

However, if the breakdown does come with a nice plains fall outbreak...im ready!

But the mini season has just begun...I can recall a certain November High risk outbreak...i wanna say 11-15-0...5 maybe?
 
I can't wait. This spring I got boned pretty bad having to work when that storm produced all along southern Garfield Co. Hopefully I will be able to get out some this fall and see some good action around here!
 
There is still hope in the models. Both the GFS and Euro are agreeing on SOMETHING fairly significant moving into the Plains. When and where is the question.

gfsUS_500_spd_240.gif

ecmwf_500_spd_168.gif
 
Oh yea - towards the end of the first week of October, it looks like the central plains could get it. Big trough into a closed low sets up per long range GFS. ie the WISHCAST! Man, if we could get a killer setup in western KS in Oct, that would be most excellent.

gfs500300lqf3.gif
 
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_228m.gif

Fun times starting to show up for that time frame. Even past that looks like more fun potential. ECMWF pretty agreeable for that time frame around the 5th/6th too.

That 6z GFS run is crazy though. Leaves a stalled front over KS or so for the days leading up to the main trough coming, with return flow for days south of it.

God it'd be nice to finally get out of the persistent west coast ridging.
 
12z GFS comes out and has to go and say sorry Charlie to that idea. Hopefully the 12z ECMWF will still have it there once it is available in the next hour or so.

I don't know why I have to look this far in advance to begin with, guess there's nothing much else to do.
 
Man, the 0z GFS looks like a thing of BEAUTY from around the 8-12th time period. A nice closed low parked right over the rockies, however it does appear to be positively tilted on this latest run. One can only hope that something close to this comes to fruition. It has my complete attention. Although I hate watching at 300+ hours. :(
 
My prediction; more speculation and excitement on the 240+ hour time frame, and even more disappointment on the disappearance of said excitement when it comes inside the 180 hour time frame.
 
Yeah, Down here in Texas there have been some Falls that were very active with several strings of severe weather days. But during the last 4 or 5 Fall seasons, there has only been a round or two of storms during each season. We can only hope for an active fall.

David
 
Tonight's GFS looks pretty good for S.Kansas and N/C Oklahoma for Sunday. It's hard to tell how much to trust the progressive GFS over the more sluggish Euro. At any rate if some Td's in the 60's can make it and be established Sunday, and the GFS is on the mark, things could get pretty interesting by afternoon. Certainly is time to keep an eye on it, and then start a thread for a more detailed forecast as we get towards week's end. Its possible that this could end up a possible two day set up if you split the differences. This is getting into that climatologically favored hot spot on the calendar for pretty major events in the C/S Plains. We'll see if this one pans out.
 
Ya beat me to it Brian. I definitely agree with you. I've been watching the GFS for the past couple of days. It's been attempting to set up a trough that will dig deep enough and this cut off low it's producing seems to be sufficient enough for something. This low is actually the first really definite thing I've seen where all levels (850,500,300 mb) match up, even though it's still pretty far out.
 
Looks like this Omega Block is going to start breaking down by the end of the week, not early enough to cut off the potent CAA in time for my fishing trip in the Northwoods... might get to see some frost if I'm lucky. Gross.
 
Tonight's GFS looks pretty good for S.Kansas and N/C Oklahoma for Sunday. It's hard to tell how much to trust the progressive GFS over the more sluggish Euro. At any rate if some Td's in the 60's can make it and be established Sunday, and the GFS is on the mark, things could get pretty interesting by afternoon. Certainly is time to keep an eye on it, and then start a thread for a more detailed forecast as we get towards week's end. Its possible that this could end up a possible two day set up if you split the differences. This is getting into that climatologically favored hot spot on the calendar for pretty major events in the C/S Plains. We'll see if this one pans out.

Starting Sunday, things look good and the models are starting to agree - nice trough to a closed low centered over southern CO. Western KS/Goodland/Tristate area looks doable at this point, but we're obviously still a ways out. But it's nice to see things finally coming together.
 
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