Approach of the Second Season...

[Dan Rupnow]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs168hr_500_wnd.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs168hr_850_wnd.gif

Looks like a nice trough will head into the N Plains next week. If we can get the moisture there then we could see a big event, but I'm not betting on it! Still some glimmer of hope though.

Aww come on, whats not to love? The GFS has never let us down!

Seriously though, it does look pretty good right now. Would it be too much to ask for a two day event?

 

[Laura Duchesne]

Waterspout season will be starting shortly here in the great lakes. I'd like to be able to get out to hunt waterspouts for the first time. Other than that, guess I will need to wait till next spring plains trip... sigh.

 

[John A. Sellers]

The second season can produce some active weather for our area. The last few events that we've had I've been "on call" at where I work and wasn't able to go to far. I'am hoping if it does happen this second season I won"t be on call and be more mobile. The tornado that hit Nappanee would have touched down where I would have been, would have gotten a good view.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Man, why do I get the feeling I'm going to get suckered into western SD Monday, maybe even western NE. Sort of getting nice looking to me(least on GFS and 18z runs). Great moisture might be missing, but enough could be out there with nice shear to be interesting. Damn the roads though.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks pretty interesting with the Pacific getting more active and good 500mb flow developing, particularly as things work into the first full week of October. Looks like we may be treated to some solid events coming up. I will post a forecast update Sat. on Vortex Times for those interested. I am seeing some glimmers of hope for maybe a few more chases before jack frost shows up and shuts things down.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

It looks like Monday may not be so bad like Mike mentioned. Looks like a possible NW KS/ SW and W NE setup. Of course, instability and moisture at this time of the year are marginal, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Yeah, looks like a two day'r for me. Never noticed tomorrow's setup. Hopefully one can at least squeeze some mid-upper 50 dews up onto the high plains. Gulf is obviously shut down for this, so hopefully there's enough juice sitting across the central/southern plains to make it at least worthwhile.

Just the other day I was wondering if I'd forgotten how to chase. Wondering if it will be like one of those bad dreams where you can't find stuff in your car.

September 22nd rings a bell eh Brian, lol. That'd be nice to get it to slip that far east.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Wow the models have been consistnly showing a MAJOR trough plowing through the plains and midwest between Oct 3-4 timeframe. The latest 12z GFS however were showing the Oct 2-3 timeframe. Regardless a mean trough looks to move into the Plains with a good setup in the C Plains first followed by a classic late season Mississippi Valley setup. I am going to keep a real close eye on this thing.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Yeah, looks like a two day'r for me. Never noticed tomorrow's setup.

I'd like to make it a two day deal as well, though I still haven't got my Camera fixed, and in that area, often the Camcorder can be pretty useless, a camera is the only thing to keep you from getting bored. I might hold off on tommorow and wait to see how Monday looks, if the NAM verifies I'd be somewhat interested in the Valentine area.

 

[Brett Adair]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_300m.gif


Mmmmmmmmmm.....yummy. That looks tasty..

 

[Chad Cowan]

That early October trough does look like some serious model porn on the 12z op-GFS run... BUT it's not supported well by the ensembles. There is good agreement between the ensemble members (and the ECMWF, albeit slower) around 9/30 with a decent trough digging in off the west coast, but 3-4 days later the operational GFS (images posted above) is the extreme outlier [black line in the bottom image] being much more progressive and amplified than all other members.

 

[Stephen Levine]

2nd Season

Living in the greater Dallas area, I turn towards East and Southeast TX for interesting weather from Nov through Feb.
Tornadoes seem rather rare in Texas during this time, however I also savor great light shows and these parts do deliver during the winter months, while just west here in Dallas such events are extremely rare.

Some of the most breath taking lightning and black night sky events I have ever experienced in my life have taken place around the winter solstace in east Texas.

I'll also never forget the moderate risk zone I chased down towards Houston in 2002 near Christmas. A negatively tilted low, sending a jet max around it's base in SE TX while an artic air mass set up just to the north... 38 degrees and falling in Dallas; 72 degrees in Huntsville with 70 dewpoints. We intercepted rotating and spectacular storms; saw no twisters but the difference in air masses and the transitions between them plus the stunning wind, rain and lightning made it worth the trip.

 

[Chris Kennedy]

Here is southern California, we get most of our weather in the 2nd season

 

[Scott Roberts]

This has been a strange season all-around. I'm going on nothing more than my (admittedly substantial) gut here...but it just doesn't feel like SC KS will *get* a second season. A day, maybe.

It just "feels" like fall...for some reason I can't fully put a finger on.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

just as long its not october 4th when i have my usual yearly party. but if that happens that weekend...well oh well....people can party i'll go chase and i'll have a good time and they can leave the party to my 2nd in command and i'll come back to a great time if it is in a 500 miles of my house! -)