Approach of the Second Season...

My prediction; more speculation and excitement on the 240+ hour time frame, and even more disappointment on the disappearance of said excitement when it comes inside the 180 hour time frame.

Fail! LOL. Doesn't look like it's vanishing, though crap dews may kill it anyway.
 
The dews may kill any chance of tornadoes on Sunday but one of my best chases in the spring happened on day with low dew points. We were treated to show of awesome, sculpted LP supercells. I would not mind that happening again this Sunday! :)
 
The dews may kill any chance of tornadoes on Sunday but one of my best chases in the spring happened on day with low dew points. We were treated to show of awesome, sculpted LP supercells. I would not mind that happening again this Sunday! :)


I like fall chasing in general - cooler temps, football season, less chasers. Would be a treat to sit back and watch a nice structured LP while listening to the Broncos game! :D
 
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The first system may just be the one that tugs our moisture back north, where it can linger ahead of the next potential beast. Yeah, 240 hr, but seems to be some good signs toward finally getting more of west coast troughing setup.
 
This season is having some trouble taking off. I remember from my earlier thread on the subject that instability is an issue, but yeesh.
 
Don't want to get anybody's hopes up, including my own, but the GFS hsa been hinting of a trough toward the beginning of next week and the 6z GFS looks great with CAPE values > 2000 j/kg in the TX Pan by 18z and more great shear profiles. Still about 200-240 hrs out, but maybe a general trend. One of these setups will produce it's just a matter of which one.
 
Well the 0z GFS has a cut off low forming over TX/OK/KS for Wednesday of next week. It looks like the wind shear is unidirectional and the moisture isn't all that great. But it's something to watch and hope comes together.
 
I hmy gear down to basics, but still able to chase in the spur of the moment adeqately. I also look forward to the Second Season. We had a very rare January tornado strike this year so if it is any indication to the Fall/Winter season, Im game!
 
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