Approach of the Second Season...

[Brian Stertz]

October is usually good for a few interesting events in the heart of the Plains. Looks like the pattern is stuck in a ridge for a while and then nw flow. It may be a while before we can get a good sw flow/trough to move into the C/S Plains. I for one could use a couple good chases to round out the year on a favorable note. Hate the falls that jump from summer right into winter...ughhh. At the very least, the heights at 500mb will get tempered by this flow pattern...that is a good start.

 

[Brett Adair]

I really don't believe there is a true second season -- kind of a myth. Statistically, nation wide, there is no appreciable spike in the fall that I can see. (unless it is a very short window < 1 month and or for a very limited geographical region)

I think as you push towards winter and get stronger systems to push through, you stand a chance for a nice outbreak once in a while if you're able to get one last kick of gulf moisture in. (think midwest/Ohio valley outbreaks out to the east)

But it's not really a seasonal thing you can plan for, or count on... just something that works out once in a while.

I respectfully disagree....unless you consider this a small geographical area.

I'm sure that if you look at statistical data over the last 10 years across the southeast U.S. that you will see a "spike" in tornado numbers from late October to early December. In fact....I believe besides this year the BMX/HUN/JAN forecast areas have dealt with more tornadic activity during the 'secondary' fall/winter season.

As a matter of fact....the largest tornado outbreak in state history here in Alabama occurred on November 24th, 2001...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/aware/fall_severe_awareness.php

 

[Clarence Bennett]

I respectfully disagree....unless you consider this a small geographical area.

I'm sure that if you look at statistical data over the last 10 years across the southeast U.S. that you will see a "spike" in tornado numbers from late October to early December. In fact....I believe besides this year the BMX/HUN/JAN forecast areas have dealt with more tornadic activity during the 'secondary' fall/winter season.

As a matter of fact....the largest tornado outbreak in state history here in Alabama occurred on November 24th, 2001...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/aware/fall_severe_awareness.php

I am with Brett. As a matter of fact the November 1992 outbreak had a total path length only second to the April 1974 Superoutbreak. Living in the midsouth, I have exprienced it, as I know Brett has as well.

 

[Derek Weston]

I am with Brett. As a matter of fact the November 1992 outbreak had a total path length only second to the April 1974 Superoutbreak. Living in the midsouth, I have exprienced it, as I know Brett has as well.

Ack... I almost brought up the southeast, but didn't.

Yeah, that sounds right... late Fall and early spring in the SE.... fair enough.

Really, the fall can have some outstanding outbreaks. November in particular has had a history of producing some really impressive outbreaks in the east, I believe.

 

[Bob Hartig]

The Van Wert, Ohio, tornado in November of 2002* taught me not to write off the fall, even the late fall, for chaseworthy weather. Last Saturday was a case in point here in Michigan and northern Indiana. And October 18 last year was well worth putting on a few hundred miles for. Overall, the Great Lakes region doesn't fare too badly for last-gasp action. When it comes to this time of year, my motto is, expect nothing and hope for much. I doubt I'll head for the Great Plains, but I'll definitely make the drive west as far as Iowa if I see something promising.

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* Here's a YouTube clip that's new to me showing the Van Wert tornado as it first gets started: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jK2cuZIaQx0

 

[Richard Dickson]

Since you are discussing several geographical area of the United States, I feel obligated to mention the well known ‘second season’ that happens in Arizona. This phenomenon has been very well documented for an extensive period of time and much has been written to support the research after the initial discovery.

To fully understand and make the best use of the second season requires two basic items: a map and a calendar. The map is utilized to determine whether you are in the mountainous portions of the state or the desert portions. The calendar is necessary to determine if it is spring or fall.

It the desert areas, we only have two seasons. It is either hot or wonderful. Spring and fall are typically a one day event that happens on a Tuesday. In the mountains there are also only two seasons. It is either wonderful or cold. To avoid confusion, spring and fall happen on a Friday in the mountains. After consulting both the map and the calendar, it is a rather simple find to the appropriate square on the matrix box and verify which season is coming up next. Here in the desert, we are anticipating the wonderful season to start about any day, possibly next Tuesday. The only confusing concept is that dust devils can occur about any time of the year in the desert.

I really wish that Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado would adopt this same process to make it easier for me to determine where I should chase the storms. It would make life so much simpler.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Every year with the exception of last year we usually have a fairly good severe weather outbreak in Ohio the first week or so of November. We always seem to get the last warm spell before winter starts to kick in. The most notable was obviously the 2002 Van Wert tornado outbreak but there have been others that have not made as much notice such as the next two years afterwards.

Heck I don't want to only have storms two times a year! The randomness of storms keeps things interesting and keeps ya on your toes! Plus a occasional outbreak helps the offseason go by!

This week, with the big Canadian high pressure over much of the US seems to be the pattern this year since August. I think it will be a much quieter fall than normal and there may very well be a early winter.

Chip

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

As I recall last year, the real storm of the 'second season' was a squall line storm that extended several hundred miles from the SW to the NE. All the way up into Michigan, so I called my sister who lived there to give her a well-needed 'heads up'. I remember the news media and TWC were going absolutely ape. It did spawn a large number of weak tornadoes along a line of thunderstorms - but were anything but predictable.

The southern states may well have to be concerned for November second season action. But it sure wouldn't hurt to prepare my gear and wait n'see if it all happens within a reasonable distance from Iowa in October. I watch the RUC habitually, so I can hopefully get another lick in this year. When winter gets here, the distance traveled would be limited severely.

BTW - This year, the tornado season had some interesting trivia. January and February also saw an unusual number of tornadoes. More than usual - by far. Not that it means that this season will necessarily go out with a bang - but it hasn't convinced me that it won't - either! I'll know in Decenber!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_500_wnd.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...op!od!oper!public_plots!2008091612!!chart.gif

 

[Chip Redmond]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_500_wnd.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...op!od!oper!public_plots!2008091612!!chart.gif

Now thats a ridge over the eastern US!

Thats a primo setup. Start making plans! Hopefully it will keep together.


Chip

 

[Chad Cowan]

Now thats a ridge!!!!!!!!!!!

Chip

Can't have light without the dark... can't have peaks without the valleys.. and you can't have a ridge without a trough!

 

[beaudodson]

The western Kentucky area has been hit hard over the last few years, during the second season. Several years we actually had worse weather than spring. The middle of October until the end of November is our peak.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

I can't wait for the second season to start. I missed the tornadoes that went though chicago south burbs in early june. Then i missed the big line of storms in august because of work. I have SDS big time! This morning i was taking pictures of steam coming off a wood fence because the sun was hit it! I need convection!!!

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_500_wnd.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Geopotential%20500%20hPa%21168%21North%20America%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%212008091612%21%21chart.gif

There’s been some pretty good agreement among long range models (including the Euro) of this trough coming in after this nice period of returned southerly flow. Rather or not the big story of the system will turn out to be a chase day or two or the mountains first decent snow will likely take a while to decipher, hell tonights GFS run looks like if anywhere does and thats a big IF, Canada has the most potential, though at least there is something to try and be optimistic about for once...

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs168hr_500_wnd.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs168hr_850_wnd.gif

Looks like a nice trough will head into the N Plains next week. If we can get the moisture there then we could see a big event, but I'm not betting on it! Still some glimmer of hope though.