Any thoughts on what late Summer/Early fall will bring?

[MatthewCarman]

I just felt like posting some examples. This clearly shows that fall is very active and even winter can have some descent outbreaks. You just need to know where to chase in the fall. This is only for 2004/2005 but I can probibly find this many or more for the other years.

August 12th and 13th 2004, 36 tornadoes from FL up the east coast and atleast 2 in TX.
August 26 2004, 13 tornadoes mostly in IA and 163 severe weather reports from MT to MI.
August 30th 2004, 19 tornadoes in VA.
September 6th 2004, 21 tornadoes with most from FL to SC with 4 of them in IA.
September 7th 2004, 54 tornadoes from FL to NC.
Setember 8th 2004, 26 tornadoes from NC to MD.
September 15th 2004, 29 tornadoes in GA and FL. Possible with Hurricane Ivan or the remenants.
September 16th and 17th 2004, 82 tornadoes from FL to PA.
September 27th 2004, 23 tornadoes in SC and NC.
October 4th 2004, 11 tornadoes with 10 of them in CO and 1 in TX.
October 18th 2004, 28 tornadoes from MO to AL.
October 29th 2004, 8 tornadoes from MN to MO. 133 severe weather reports that day.
November 10th 2004, 6 tornadoes in OK.
November 16th 2004, 4 tornadoes in TX.
November 23 2004, 66 tornadoes from TX to AL and 229 severe weather reports. Around 30 of the tornadoes occured in TX.
December 6th 2004, Big wind event with 19 tornadoes from TX to KY/AL. 136 severe weather reports.
December 8th 2004, 8 tornadoes in LA and MS.
December 28th 2004, 4 tornadoes in CA and another reprted the next day.
January 7th 2005, 6 tornadoes in MS and AL.
January 12th 2005, 6 tornadoes from MO to LA with 89 severe weather reports.
January 13th 2005, 11 tornadoes from MS to VA with 114 severe weather reports.
Febuary 21 2005, 175 severe weather reports from TN to GA/SC and 1 tornado reported in CA.
Febuary 22 2005, 60 severe weather reports with over half of them in TX/OK.
March 8th 2005, 126 severe weather reports from GA to VA.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Matthew,

Generally, hurricane-spawned tornadoes aren't worth chasing from a chaser's perspective. Unusual storm directions, speeds, terrain, etc. I'm not saying people don't do it and don't see them, it's just out of tornado alley in unchaseable terrain, miles from home, etc.

Also, a "report" doesn't necessarily mean it's a tornado, but could be that from the public, which could be false, or are from multiple reports that are submitted of the same tornado.

Hopefully, there will be a day or two for a "Cold-core" chase in the fall, aside from the "regular" setup. I'll just keep my eye on the extended GFS for signs of life!

 

[MatthewCarman]

Good points thanks Dick. Just a reminder August can be very active and we could already see severe storms for the beginning of August. 4-8 Day Severe Weather Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

 

[Chad Cowan]

This clearly shows that fall is very active and even winter can have some descent outbreaks.

You can list off all of the events you would like, but statistically and relatively speaking, this data clearly shows that fall is not very active:

(Source: Oklahoma Climatological Survey)

 

[Brian Stertz]

The fall second season I have found can provide a few good events for chasing...although things get a bit colder, faster moving, and dicy once you move into November and December. I seem to have a bunch of luck in Nebraska and Kansas in the fall though

 

[Derek Weston]

I've enjoyed the responses, guys.

Agree that while 07 provided some really good days early on, big days were few and far between, and they ended pretty quick. I mean, I've had fun putzing around after severe storms in Iowa, but no solid tornado outbreaks to speak of.

Data wise, at least, the idea of a true fall season seems to be a myth. That said, it seems you do get some rather memorable days in the fall every once in a while. I don't remember the exact statistic, but I believe November is pretty well represented in the top 10 tornado outbreak days. Perhaps we get excited a bit about fall possibilities considering the lack of any meaningful outbreaks in the dog days of late summer. (we've got the systems to work with that we didn't during the dog days)

It would be interesting to see if there has been a trend with more outbreaks later in the year considering our rising temperatures. Although its effect is probably rather marginal.

Hopefully we see another 06, which produced -- if I'm remembering right -- 3 setups that were pretty good in the early fall. (and better than anything that had been before them for nearly the 3 months before -- though, that's probably a reflection on the weakness of the season more than anything)

 

[Brandon Goforth]

I agree that western KS and the OK/TX panhandles, and even extreme NW OK, was pretty good this year, however, outside of this region there wasn't much of anything. No tornadoes in SW OK.....that's rather unexpected.

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

In my opinion, we need to monitor the east coast troughing for both the tornado and hurricane seasons. If we can't shake that trough like we couldn't last year, things will pan out like they did last year... not too terribly sure about how the tornado season panned out last year (other than that August 24 Minnesota event), but any tropical systems that formed of any substantial nature got bounced out to sea. Also, it cooled down fast in the Great Lakes region (we started to see lake effect snow squalls at Central Michigan University by mid to late October... not something I want to see again).

 

[Joel Taylor]

It's amazing how relative storm chasing can be. For Reed and I, this was one of our best years. 10 tornado days, with over 30 tornadoes on a conservative count. Plus, most of the chase days were within four to five hours of home so we weren't having to drive to Nebraska every other day like in '04. I can look back at some of the years that were huge for a lot of chasers, where we botched a big chase or I elected not to go. Even though I saw a quite a few tornadoes in '03 and '04, due to the misses, those years didn't leave a lot of good memories. Even last year, which wasn't good for most of us, Simon Brewer scored a bunch of tornadoes. I imagine he looks back at '06 as a pretty successful year.

As for what the future holds, right now I'm looking forward to hurricane season. Could very well see several strong hurricanes make landfall on the US or Mexican coastline. As far as tornadoes, seems like about every other year on average will give us a good to incredible setup in the plains states. That's not counting the difficult to chase stuff east of the Mississippi. It's been 6 years since Oklahoma has had a real good fall chase, so maybe we can break that streak this year.

 

[Tony Lyza]

November 2005 had several big days. November 5th was a big severe day across the IL/IN/KY/MO area. Not a big tornado day I suppose but was widespread severe coverage. November 15th was another big high risk day in the Ohio Valley. Got with something like 100 yards away from a 10 mile track tornado in southern Illinois that day but saw nothing but rain. It actually split right between us and another car that we were with. They reported seeing rotating "scud" but we weren't aware that a tornado was splitting us until we heard of the damage reports (though with the intense couplet we knew there likely was one very near, and did note a defined wind shift in the direction of the tornado). That's another thing with those setups... you can still get super close to a tornado and still not see it because its embedded or something. Kinda figures, that was the closest I've ever been to a tornado but I don't even have a log on my website for it, nor do I even think of that date when I think back on decent chases.

September 22 2006 was another pretty good one in Illinois/Missouri/Arkansas but most of it was over non-chaseable terrain so it's not really remembered as a big day. Dan Robinson did score that huge F4 down there in southern Illinois.

Mike is right, that when those days come, you better not screw them up because you'll have a long winter to think about it. The drive home is often not very fun either (November 15th after the intercept we drove less than an hour to dinner and when we opened the car doors were greeted by 45 mph winds and temperatures in the 30s).

Personally, I don't have a clue what this fall is going to hold. My gut tells me to just start saving for 2008. But then whenever I start thinking about starting on a chase video I can't bring myself to do it because I still feel like there is another day lurking out there. For whatever reason, I feel like Indiana could be the state to do it. Not sure why, but I'm sure you've all had those weird feelings that don't make any sense before.

The last several years have featured some incredible events in Indiana during the fall. You had the high risk major outbreak on 10/24/01, the 112mi-long F3 on 9/20/02, 11/10/02 in the NE part of the state, and the major outbreak in central and SW IN on 11/15/05. Sure, some of them don't feature the best visibility or time of day, but you're local and able, IN can be pretty decent in the fall.