Any thoughts on what late Summer/Early fall will bring?

[Derek Weston]

I'm hoping we'll get a few more decent shots here before it's all said and done. Has the midwest had a decent outbreak this year? It's been incredibly boring. . . the first year I've been active chasing and everything has been further west than I want to travel.

I suppose I'm just asking for guesses here -- know enough to know there isn't anyway to know solidly right now. However, if anybody has any more 'educated' guesses, feel free to share them. (heck -- you could just make stuff up and I might buy it at this point )

 

[Ed Schoenborn]

the dog days of summer

 

[Jim Leonard]

Derick.
It all depends on where the long wave troughs and ridges setup come this Fall. We don't usually see a trough setting up out in the western states for very long that time of year, they usually move through pretty quickly. 1998 and 2001 Oklahoma had some really photogenic tornadoes in October of those years. 2006 the northern plains had a outbreak in later September. The best thing to do is monitor the model data especially from about mid-September to about the end of October.

 

[Brian Stertz]

First of all...we need to get those 500mb temps cooling down. This may take some time because of the strong ridging that has gone on lately all the way up into the Canadian Prairies. I would think that by late September and into October, things may be cooled down sufficiently at the mid levels to support good supercells once again in the Plains. Right now things are stuck in the unusually persistent mcv, slow flow, and fairly wet pattern across the Plains. Some parts south of KC have picked up another 3-5" of rain over the past 24 hrs.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

You also can't count out those northwest-flow events as well. Chasers based in the High Plains area still can have the opportunity for some supercell / landspout action, while those in the S. Plains can have some nice mature squall lines that tend to be prolific lightning producers (and an effective 3:00 a.m. alarm clock )

 

[Brian Stertz]

Yes that is true enough about those crazy High Plains landspout events. I would like to hope there is another Aug. 24th outbreak coming up...but just don't see that happening this year. I guess time will tell though...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

If a crappy May and June(like last year) means we get a couple good fall or late summer events, I say we are set. Then again I think having two good ones last year means we get nothing this time around. I'd take another August 24, 2006 as well....or even the September 16, 2006 day, both were good, but August 24 was certainly better. Then again I'd screw them both up again anyway.

Going back before that, one has November 12, 2005 tornado outbreak in IA. As well as the cold core events in KS. Or was there just one cc day? Seems like that November had 3 days.

2004 fall didn't offer much? 2003? 2002? I don't remember much those years.

2001 had the biggie October 9 with an outbreak in Nebraska and in Oklahoma that day. 2001 also had Brian's favorite chase ever near Edgar Nebraska. September 22...what a sweet storm.....I screwed up that one too. September must not like me. How dumb it was to watch some video at another chaser's house in the area while waiting on initiation.....ooops.

It seems you are fairly lucky to get one good day in the late summer or fall and sometimes real lucky to get two of them. Best not screw them up as they likely won't be many more good ops. I'm with Brian on it though. Then again, I wonder just how similar the year and flow has been to 2006. The good days sure do match up pretty well. 2006 was good through April but hit a brick wall around May 10. I'd say 2007 has been similar with the brick wall just after Greensburg, or just after May 5.

I have noticed the gfs has been hinting at wanting to take a trough into that west coast ridge. That's a decent sign. Course it'll likely weaken and fly into Canada with the ridge building back in in full force. If fall doesn't come through in any way, this will be the first year I can't make a chase video. Go fall go.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

November 2005 had several big days. November 5th was a big severe day across the IL/IN/KY/MO area. Not a big tornado day I suppose but was widespread severe coverage. November 15th was another big high risk day in the Ohio Valley. Got with something like 100 yards away from a 10 mile track tornado in southern Illinois that day but saw nothing but rain. It actually split right between us and another car that we were with. They reported seeing rotating "scud" but we weren't aware that a tornado was splitting us until we heard of the damage reports (though with the intense couplet we knew there likely was one very near, and did note a defined wind shift in the direction of the tornado). That's another thing with those setups... you can still get super close to a tornado and still not see it because its embedded or something. Kinda figures, that was the closest I've ever been to a tornado but I don't even have a log on my website for it, nor do I even think of that date when I think back on decent chases.

September 22 2006 was another pretty good one in Illinois/Missouri/Arkansas but most of it was over non-chaseable terrain so it's not really remembered as a big day. Dan Robinson did score that huge F4 down there in southern Illinois.

Mike is right, that when those days come, you better not screw them up because you'll have a long winter to think about it. The drive home is often not very fun either (November 15th after the intercept we drove less than an hour to dinner and when we opened the car doors were greeted by 45 mph winds and temperatures in the 30s).

Personally, I don't have a clue what this fall is going to hold. My gut tells me to just start saving for 2008. But then whenever I start thinking about starting on a chase video I can't bring myself to do it because I still feel like there is another day lurking out there. For whatever reason, I feel like Indiana could be the state to do it. Not sure why, but I'm sure you've all had those weird feelings that don't make any sense before.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'm more curious to see how the hurricane season pans out. It seems like every year when there is a good hurricane season such as 2005 the following year sucks. Then in 2006 when there were hardly any hurricanes at all the following year was much better. I'm not sure if that is a just a fluke or what, but that is what I've noticed.

As for the fall, there usually is at least one good Plains setup and one good setup further east in MO, IL, IN, & KY. I'm hoping for another Oct 9, 2001 setup or a Sept 16, 2006 setup where my dad & I scored our best intercept to date.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm more curious to see how the hurricane season pans out. It seems like every year when there is a good hurricane season such as 2005 the following year sucks. Then in 2006 when there were hardly any hurricanes at all the following year was much better. I'm not sure if that is a just a fluke or what, but that is what I've noticed.

As for the fall, there usually is at least one good Plains setup and one good setup further east in MO, IL, IN, & KY. I'm hoping for another Oct 9, 2001 setup or a Sept 16, 2006 setup where my dad & I scored our best intercept to date.

2007 was much better than 2006? I'd say it was a little better in April(though April 2006 certainly wasn't horrible), but overall both pretty much sucked in May and June.

 

[MatthewCarman]

2007 was much better than 2006? I'd say it was a little better in April(though April 2006 certainly wasn't horrible), but overall both pretty much sucked in May and June.

I thought that big tornado outbreak in WI happened in mid to late may? Then you have all of the early may events so I dont consider it as a bad month. Last year I dont remember much happining in May. Also the Tornadoes in Canada (Elie tornado etc) happened in June was it? I don't remember any tornadoes last year for June besides mabey 1 day. I think 2007 is better than 2006 although early spring of 2006 had alot of events. I guess if you wanted to you can check on the SPC reports page and find out but I wont spend any more time on this.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I thought that big tornado outbreak in WI happened in mid to late may? Then you have all of the early may events so I dont consider it as a bad month. Last year I dont remember much happining in May. Also the Tornadoes in Canada (Elie tornado etc) happened in June was it? I don't remember any tornadoes last year for June besides mabey 1 day. I think 2007 is better than 2006 although early spring of 2006 had alot of events. I guess if you wanted to you can check on the SPC reports page and find out but I wont spend any more time on this.

Originally Posted by Mike Hollingshead
2007 was much better than 2006?

I guess I don't consider one tornadic storm in the woods of Wisconsin as helping much. May had the 4th and the 5th basically, with both leaning towards night shows. The other day that was worth much was May 22nd and that wasn't crazy(a single good storm). The first 9 days of May in 2006 had decent supercells in TX. I'd take May 2007 over May 2006, but not by much. Hell I'd also take 2007 over 2006 in general, but not by much. If nothing happens this fall to offset the 2006 fall events, I'd think of the years as very close toss-ups. But all I was trying to say was 2007 hasn't seemed much better than 2006 to me(not to be confused with simply better). And was that Wisconsin day really a big tornado outbreak? And if it is what I'm thinking about, wasn't it June 7th?

June......blah on both years. So what if there were a couple days in Canada? Doesn't change the fact both years had June's that really don't get any worse. People always try to come back with, well there was this storm here or there on this or that day. Yeah well, even in crap years they'll happen. It's not how the plains "should" be in these two months though.

So in the end, if there's another crappy cane season and it is supposed to relate to the following chasing season, expect what we saw in 2006 which really wasn't much better than what we saw in 2007......imo. But yeah, it seems fairly clear to me that as a whole, 2007 was better than 2006. But May and June BOTH sucked as a whole...both years. I'm trying to think of it this way, we can't have 3 May and June's sucking in a row can we? I never thought 2006 would be repeated as closely as it was this year. Both years you'd be doing yourself a favor by not chasing after May 10th.....and.....making sure not to save for the "real season" as was suggested early in 2007 lol.

But anyway, 2007 was better, but not a lot.....AND....I really wouldn't ask for much more in the month of April than we got both years. Things seems ass-backwards in my mind anymore. I used to try and swear off April, now I want to plan on things shutting down quickly after the first week or so of May.

 

[Jonathan Behle]

2007 sucked mostly everywhere but Western Kansas and the Panhandles.... If you made a trip to the high plains this year you probably weren't dissapointed too often...I know chasers who spotted mostly in just Western Kansas this year who caught 14 tornados

However those of you who are in the Upper Midwest or Missouri valley, its been very very dull, its all about location this year...

Anyone remember early October of 1998? I remember a very good outbreak occuring that year with a few PDS Tornado watches in the Central Plains. That night the Chiefs played a Sunday night football game in Kansas City and they had about 7" of rain in an hour on the game and they delayed the game and it flooded the field...

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Yep, weren't they playing the Seahawks that night? It might've been the 49ers, my memory is too rusty, lol. I do remember that game though, it was crazy to watch all that rain fall.

As for the topic at hand so I don't stray too far off, I predicted a near average year for Oklahoma and the only real way to have that is to have a 20+ tornado outbreak this fall. So with that said, I'm predicting a hopeful Tornado Outbreak in Western Oklahoma with a lot of naders going through Fall foliage and dusty fields and being as photogenic as possible. A man can hope can't he?

 

[MatthewCarman]

I guess I don't consider one tornadic storm in the woods of Wisconsin as helping much. May had the 4th and the 5th basically, with both leaning towards night shows. The other day that was worth much was May 22nd and that wasn't crazy(a single good storm). The first 9 days of May in 2006 had decent supercells in TX. I'd take May 2007 over May 2006, but not by much. Hell I'd also take 2007 over 2006 in general, but not by much. If nothing happens this fall to offset the 2006 fall events, I'd think of the years as very close toss-ups. But all I was trying to say was 2007 hasn't seemed much better than 2006 to me(not to be confused with simply better). And was that Wisconsin day really a big tornado outbreak? And if it is what I'm thinking about, wasn't it June 7th?

June......blah on both years. So what if there were a couple days in Canada? Doesn't change the fact both years had June's that really don't get any worse. People always try to come back with, well there was this storm here or there on this or that day. Yeah well, even in crap years they'll happen. It's not how the plains "should" be in these two months though.

So in the end, if there's another crappy cane season and it is supposed to relate to the following chasing season, expect what we saw in 2006 which really wasn't much better than what we saw in 2007......imo. But yeah, it seems fairly clear to me that as a whole, 2007 was better than 2006. But May and June BOTH sucked as a whole...both years. I'm trying to think of it this way, we can't have 3 May and June's sucking in a row can we? I never thought 2006 would be repeated as closely as it was this year. Both years you'd be doing yourself a favor by not chasing after May 10th.....and.....making sure not to save for the "real season" as was suggested early in 2007 lol.

But anyway, 2007 was better, but not a lot.....AND....I really wouldn't ask for much more in the month of April than we got both years. Things seems ass-backwards in my mind anymore. I used to try and swear off April, now I want to plan on things shutting down quickly after the first week or so of May.

Gotcha did not notice you said 2007 was much better than 2006. I assumed because TX and OK was getting so much rain and storms that this was somehow affected the weather we get. That and the ridges we have had dont help things. June and July have been very dry here.

I think this fall will be active. I dont expect many tornado outbreaks mabey only 1 or 2 in the central plains but I do expect several severe weather outbreaks. October 18, of 2004 had 28 tornadoes from MO to AL. Who can forget November 15 in Iowa of 2006. Many tornadoes in central Iowa etc. If we get alot of Hurricanes we could see several on the GOM and east coast. In 2004 September 16, and the 17th a total of 82 tornadoes touched down from FL to PA. I think this was with Hurricane Ivan but I could be wrong. Have to wait and see how fall turns out.