4/2/06 NOW: Midwest/Southern Plains/TN and OH Valleys

[Scott Lincoln]

The intense squall line in Illinois may actually be the big story of the day, in my opinion, as it is the most dangerous. The storm in Arkansas is very easy to track to follow where the tornado is occuring. The line in Illinois has votices forming and intensifying in places all along it. There is the potential for many brief tornado touchdowns along this line. Using GR2 you can easily find many areas of concern along the shear at the front of the line.

Tazewell County, IL: Two areas of rotation, the big one over Delevan and a smaller one to the south of Hopedale.
Logan County, IL: Weak area of rotation has just moved across Mount Pulaski.
Several other smaller areas of possible rotation that could form along that line without much notice.

 

[Marc Austin]

storm west of Memphis is showing strong rotation in the upper rad vel scans. Looks like low-level rotation may be increasing again.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Third, this tornado, if on the ground the whole time, would be another tri-state tornado as it is in AR NOW, going to move into MO very soon, and then into Northwestern TN shortly after that. Of course, assuming it stays tornadic the whole time.

PS: There is little doubt in my mind that this AR storm is producing a wedge tornado right now...certainly much larger and more violent than the Springfield, IL storm.

[/b]

There really couldn't be a comparison made between a tornado in this storm and the tri-state tornado. The storm in Arkansas today will only be travelling through two counties in Missouri.

Although there are reports of damage and reports of law enforcement tracking a tornado, its hard to make assumptions with just that and radar data as to the intensity of damage or the size of the tornado. Back on March 12th reports were calling the Green Ridge / Sedalia, MO tornado a "large and dangerous half mile wide tornado", but that turned out to not be the case by video of the tornado at that time.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

PS: There is little doubt in my mind that this AR storm is producing a wedge tornado right now...certainly much larger and more violent than the Springfield, IL storm.
[/b]

As a note, remember that unless the storm is very near the radar, the radar is usually sampling the mesocyclone, not the tornado itself. From the Nashville 88D, even tilt 1 is at about 5000 feet above ground since it's about 50 miles from the radar. An intense meso does not necessarily mean a strong/violent tornado. We saw a ton of intense mesos and couplets on 3-12, but not all of those were associated with strong tornadoes (or tornadoes at all in some cases). I'm not saying that is isn't producing a strong tornado, but you can't really say that it is with 100% confidence when looking at 88D data. This is especially true when you try to imply the SIZE of a tornado (e.g "wedge tornado"). Again, perhaps a large and intense mesocyclone, but that certainly does not guarantee a 'wedge' tornado. I think I could say that there is a distinct chance that the storm is producing a tornado that is stronger than the Springfield tornado (if it is confirmed that a tornado did cause that damage), but it'd be difficult to have a lot of confidence in the size of the tornado other than per spotter and enforcement reports. Speaking of which, some of the "large and destruction" tornadoes reported on 3-12 didn't end up being particularly large nor strong (if we say strong as F2-F3).


EDIT: LOL Just saw that Scott said almost the same thing as I did in this post...

 

[Marc Austin]

I'm going to go ahead and post a link to some good webcams in Memphis, TN. One of the cells W of Memphis is now tornado warned and might move into the Memphis area within the next hour or so... These are some good cams.

http://bf.memphis.edu/pp/construction.php

 

[HAltschule]

I'm not saying that is isn't producing a strong tornado, but you can't really say that it is with 100% confidence when looking at 88D data. This is especially true when you try to imply the SIZE of a tornado (e.g "wedge tornado"). [/b]

Actually, I didn't say that with 100% confidence. I said that there is little doubt in my mind, which of course, implies some uncertainty.

 

[Marc Austin]

Actually, I didn't say that with 100% confidence. I said that there is little doubt in my mind, which of course, implies some uncertainty.
[/b]

I am often guilty of the same generalizations. I just blame it on the excitement of it all! I will say though, that of all the supercells I have seen today, the one now crossing SW MO has the highest potential of producing a strong tornado... based only on what I can see on radar, etc.

Very impressive hook now on the Memphis storm, this could get interesting...

 

[HAltschule]

:blink:

I am often guilty of the same generalizations. I just blame it on the excitement of it all! I will say though, that of all the supercells I have seen today, the one now crossing SW MO has the highest potential of producing a strong tornado... based only on what I can see on radar, etc.
[/b]

I think the excitement got you again. I don't see any cells in SW MO. I think you meant to say SE MO?

 

[Marc Austin]

:blink:

I think the excitement got you again. I don't see any cells in SW MO. I think you meant to say SE MO?
[/b]

ahh yes.. that is what I mean, thanks for noticing!

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Right now with my dealiasing settings in GR2AE i have some absolutely intense values coming from that mesocyclone in the bootheel of Missouri. I've taken a look at which bins it is changing and it seems to make sense.
I've got 101knots inbound, 83 knots outbound between Deering and Braggadocio, Pemiscot County, MO.

Jeff are you getting similar values with your dealiasing settings?


UPDATE: On the latest scan the intensity remains high, just north of Braggadocio with 90 knots inbound and 101 knots outbound.

 

[Kevin Myatt]

Apparently a long-track, violent tornado has gone through NE Arkansas 30-35 miles to the north of my hometown of Jonesboro, Arkansas ... I've been following it on radar and also calling my parents back home several times this evening ... appears the town of Marmaduke, Arkansas has taken a direct hit ...

The usual mixed feelings for tornadoes on my old turf: Sadness for folks who were hit ... thankfulness that my parents weren't in the way ... and more than a little regret that I didn't happen to be visiting so I could have chased it. This storm would have been easily reachable from there in mostly flat, open terrain ...

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I'm going to predict that intense mesocycle will move right over the Caruthersville, MO area. Looks to be a decent sized town/city with several thousand people.

If a tornado remains on the ground, it looks like it could be rainwrapped, although beam height is about 4500ft at this location.

 

[HAltschule]

The tornado heading toward Memphis, TN is confirmed on the ground by spotters. As Marc said earlier, that storm is taking dead on aim toward the city itself. Uh oh.

 

[Marc Austin]

Actually, it looks as though, on its current track, the Memphis storm my hit the southwest Memphis metro, that's assume there still is a tornado on the ground... and the worst part of it all... it will be dark by the time it gets there. This storm may soon pull out of its "right turn" and head more ENE. We just have to wait and see.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

The tornado heading toward Memphis, TN is confirmed on the ground by spotters. As Marc said earlier, that storm is taking dead on aim toward the city itself. Uh oh.
[/b]

I am also beginning to get worried for the Memphis metropolitan area. The current ESE track of the storm would take it somewhere near the southern loop in Memphis. To the north are some fairly dense residential and industrial areas, to the south some more suburban type residential areas and the Memphis International Airport. The University of Memphis is just inside of the loop and the webcams from there will be interesting to watch as the supercell approaches.
Anyone know of tv stations streaming coverage down there?