HIGH RISK archive updates

[Andy Wehrle]

Decided to make a new thread to keep these seperate from updates to the 2005 diary, WI storm event write-ups (yeah right, like there's gonna be any of those for me to do anytime soon ), etc.

Found these while making another search of Google Groups to see if there were any I missed last time:

ACUS1 KMKC 271441
SWODY1
MKC AC 271440

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O

VALID 271500 - 281200Z

REF WW 905...VALID UNTIL 2000Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TNGT ACRS PTNS S AND E AR...WRN KY...WRN AND MID TN...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS AND NRN LA. THIS AREA IS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 15 S TXK LIT 30 NNW DYR 20 W OWB 25 NE SDF 30 S LEX 15 S CSV GAD 40 SW TCL 25 SW JAN 25 N ESF SHV 15 S TXK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 30 WNW TXK 10 SE HRO 20 W VIH 35 NW STL 25 NE HUF 15 N DAY 30 WNW UNI 20 WSW 5I3 35 NW AHN TOI 15 N GPT BTR 25 WNW BPT 50 SW LFK 30 WNW TXK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 30 SW PSX 55 E ACT 10 SE PGO 40 NNE SGF 15 WSW IRK 40 NW 3OI 35 ENE SUX 30 E FRM LSE 15 NNE MBS ...CONT...25 NNE JHW 15 ENE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 15 N ECG 35 WSW FLO PFN.

VERY POTENT WARM SECTOR HAS DVLP OVERNGT ACRS LWR MS VLY AS INTENSE LOW NOW OVR SERN NEB MOVES ACRS SRN WI EARLY TNGT. MDT TO STG PTNL INSTBY IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW ENTERING WRN AR. DEW POINTS HV RISEN TO NR 70 INTO SRN AR ATTM AND WITH STG LLJ OF 60-70 KT DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WILL MOV RPDLY NEWD INTO TN AND SRN OH VLYS THIS AFTN. STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH ASSOCD DRY AIR ADVECTING EWD ACRS THIS LOW LVL AMS WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT PTNL. HELICITIES AOA 400 WITH PTNL CAPES BTWN 2000-3000 J/KG WILL SET UP BY EARLY THIS AFTN IN HIGH RISK AREA. WITH JET MAX OF 150KT ATTM OVR OK AND STG UPR DVRG ACRS HIGH RISK AREA...POTENT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOS ARE PSBL. CELL MOVMT WILL BE VERY FAST 50-60 KT ENHANCING STM RELATIVE INFLOW. STG WIND FIELDS ALSO FAVOR VERY DMGG BOW ECHOES WITH ASSOCD WND DMG. THIS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN OVR NRN PTN OF OTLK WHERE INSTBY WL BE WEAKER.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 16Z.

..HALES.. 11/27/94


ACUS1 KMKC 130600
SWODY1
-MKC AC 130600

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0364...VALID TIL 0800Z.
REF WW NUMBER 0365...VALID TIL 1200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF MO/SERN IA/NRN AR AND MUCH OF IL. THE HIGH RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SGF SZL 30 W 3OI DSM CID MMO CMI MTO 20 NW PAH 30 E JBR 35 SSE HRO SGF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELD PGO JLN TOP LNK GRI 10 NNW BUB ANW PIR ATY MSP OSH GRR 25 WSW TOL LUK BWG 30 E MKL UOX ELD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP BKE 4BQ FAR 65 E ELO ...CONT... ROC 20 SW ACY ...CONT... 10 SE PSX AUS ACT DUA 20 ENE OKC END GCK PUB 4BL DRA 10 WNW VBG.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

INGREDIENTS FOR OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS VRY STG VERT WIND PROFILE COMBINES WITH MDT/HIGH INSTBY.

SFC LO OVR WRN KS ATTM EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO NWRN IA BY EVENING AS WRMFNT CURRENTLY FM NRN MO TO CNTRL IL MOVES N INTO GRT LAKES RGN. CDFNT WL ALSO BE PUSHED INTO WRN IA/MO BY LATE AFTN. SFC DWPNTS IN LOWER 70S ACRS CNTRL OK/SRN AR ATTM EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD INTO SRN MO IN ADVN OF CDFNT...AS MID 60 DWPNTS ADVECT AS FAR N AS SERN IA.

THOUGH CLDS FROM ONGOING CNVTN MAY HINDER HTG EARLY IN PD...BREAKS IN CLDS BY AFTN WILL RESULT IN 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS ARCS AREA. THIS WL PRODUCE LI FM -6 TO -10 /CAPE TO 4000 J/KG/ OVR MUCH OF MO/SRN IA/MUCH OF IL AND NRN ARK BY THE LATE AFTN. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY H5 SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 80 KT WILL EXTEND FROM KS NEWD INTO NRN IL TDA OVERRIDING INSTBY AXIS AND IMPRESSIVE LLJ /H85 WINDS NR 60 KT/.

BNDRY LAYER CNVGNC ALG AND NR CDFNT/DRY LINE EXPECTED TO FOCUS CNVTV DVLPMT THIS AFTN OVR CNTRL MO/SRN IA/NRN AR IN RGN OF GREATEST INSTBY AND WEAKEST CAP. FCST SNDGS OVR RGN YIELD HELICITIES TO 500 INDICATING LO LVL SPEED/DIR SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPER-CELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL IL TONIGHT AS LOW LVL JET AXIS SHIFTS E IN ADVN OF UPR LO. SVR TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DVLP SWD INTO CNTRL AR DURG EVENING AS CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS.

ISOLD SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER ERN SD/ERN NE VCNTY OF UPR LO AS COLD MID LVL TEMPS DESTABILIZE AMS. ISOLD SVR TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVR UPR MID WEST/ERN PARTS OF OHIO VLY IN RGN OF STG LOW LVL WAA.

MKCPWOMKC WILL BE ISSUED ARND 10Z.

..EVANS.. 05/13/95

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

MDLS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING NEXT SHRTWV TROF INLAND OVR NRN SXNS OF CA DURG THE PD. THE ASSOCD SFC LO DVLPS OVR NRN CA AND TRACKS SEWD TO NR RNO BY 14/12Z. SINCE LO LVL MSTR WITH THIS SYS WL BE LIMITED...INSTBY SHOULD BE WK. EXPC ISOLD TSTMS TO DVLP IN ADVN OF THE VORT MAX...BUT LIMITED INSTBY SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BLO SVR LIMITS.

THE AMS ACRS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. IS EXPCD TO BECOMING INCRG UNSTBL THRUT THE PD. WRM AND MOIST AIR WL BE ADVECTED NWD ACRS THE AREA AS THE PLAINS SYS MOVS ENEWD. DWPNTS ARE EXPCD TO RISE INTO THE LWR 60S AS FAR N AS WV. ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL AS THE AMS CONTS TO DSTBLZ ACRS THE SE. THE LACK OF STG DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD PREVENT SVR TSTM DVLPMT.

..REHBEIN.. 05/13/95



WWUS36 KMKC 131613
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
1100 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 13 1995

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IN KANSAS CITY IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE STATES MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
MOST OF ILLINOIS
EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WHERE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS WITH THE COOL DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ACTING TO LIFT THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL ALSO FLOW OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND STRUCTURE THAT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER REMAINING PORTIONS OF IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... INDIANA... KENTUCKY ...TENNESSEE ...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF TENNESSEE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

ALL PERSONS IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE STORM SAFETY RULES AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL RADIO AND TV FOR LATER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEVERE STORM WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDS.

...STEVEN WEISS...
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER

The 1999 & before page will be edited tomorrow with links to these products, as well as to John Hart's reports map from 5/13/95 and Gilbert Sebenste's 5/13/95 chase account from the library/logs here on ST.

I think I've just about squeezed the Internet dry as far as high-risk day SWODY1 texts and graphics. Once again I request help from all my fellow weather geeks & chasers. I just know somebody's got to have some outlooks sitting on their computer's hard drive or on a floppy disk somewhere. Mainly what I need now is graphics.

For quick reference, here are the products I'd really like to get my hands on:

1630Z and 2000Z probability graphics from April 6, 2001

2000Z categorical (358x448 w/black background, not the SPC events archive one that I already have on there) and probability graphics from June 11, 2001

2000Z categorical (358x448 w/black background) and probability graphics from October 13, 2001

1300Z categorical (358x448 w/black background) and probability graphics from October 24, 2001

1300Z, 1630Z, and 2000Z (358x448) categorical and probability graphics from April 16, 2002

0600Z and 1300Z (358x448) categorical and probability graphics for July 31, 2002

1300Z wind & hail probability graphics, and 1630Z and 2000Z all probability graphics for November 10, 2002

all probability graphics and all categorical graphics EXCEPT the 1630Z one for December 23, 2002

Also I am trying to use the black background graphics that SPC issued during the events for May 22 & 24, 2004; rather than the ones in the SPC archive which they inexplicably converted to the new style. I still need the 1630Z graphics and the 2000Z wind graphic from the 22nd, and the 1300Z, 1630Z (all graphics) and 0100Z (categorical & wind prob) graphics from the 24th.

And of course any graphics from 1999 on back. It's actually quicker for me to list what I DO have for those, than the ones I need. I already have:

1200, 1500 and 1900Z categorical graphics from November 15, 1989
1500Z categorical graphic from April 8, 1998
1500Z categorical graphic from May 31, 1998
1200Z categorical graphic from January 21, 1998
1300Z categorical and tornado probability graphics from April 8, 1999
0100Z categorical graphic from April 8, 1999
1300Z categorical graphic from June 5, 1999

I do have graphics from May 3 & 4, 1999, but the ones from the 3rd are the ones from the SPC case study page, and the one from the 4th is a cropped fragment, so I would like to replace those with the full versions.

Any help would be greatly appreciated, and contributors of new outlooks get a link to their website on the archive main page.

(pants for breath)

Andy

 

[Dan Cook]

Go Illinois. [Broken External Image]:http://www.languish.org/forums/html/emoticons/yeah.gif

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Managed to find another graphic...and I thought I'd got all the ones that were online! Just messing around with Yahoo! image search, tried the query "HIGH RISK OF TORNADOES" and got this:

[Broken External Image]:http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchive/highrisk/past/1998_04_15_1200_categorical.gif

from this site: http://tornado.sfsu.edu/geosciences/classe...k/HighRisk.html

EDIT: Also added two more outlooks from June 5, 1999.

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 050614
-MKC AC 050614

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0384...VALID TIL 0700Z
REF WW NUMBER 0385...VALID TIL 0800Z
REF WW NUMBER 0386...VALID TIL 1000Z
REF WW NUMBER 0387...VALID TIL 1200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEB..SERN SD..XTRM SWRN MN..FAR NWRN IA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BUB 40 NE ANW 25 ENE 9V9 45 WSW RWF 20 W FRM 45 NE OMA 25 SE LNK 15 S GRI 40 N GRI 40 NNE BUB.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER N-CENTRAL KS..CENTRAL/ERN NEB..ERN SD..CENTRAL/SRN MN..NWRN IA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BRD RST 50 WNW DSM 25 W FNB 15 SSE RSL 25 SW HLC 25 NW BBW 35 WNW VTN 30 ENE PHP 55 S FAR 25 SSW BRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE MTC 25 WNW TOL 15 W BEH 25 ENE DBQ 15 E DSM 30 ENE FNB 30 W EMP 15 NW OKC 45 NNE ABI 45 NE BGS 25 NW LBB 35 ESE DHT 20 NNW GCK 20 E LBF 25 NW MHN 30 NE CDR 45 NNE RAP 30 ENE JMS 30 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MSS 15 SW SYR 20 WNW JHW ...CONT... 30 SSE DTW 40 WSW TOL 15 SSW MMO 25 E IRK 30 S OJC 20 ESE ADM JCT 60 NE P07 30 SSE HOB 20 SSE TCC 30 N SAF
25 WNW GUP 55 NNW GCN 35 E U31 40 NE 4LW 15 NE DLS 45 NNE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 45 NE JAN 35 SSW BNA 45 ESE LOZ 35 E TRI 30 NNW AGS 25 SW SSI.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS STATES THAN FRIDAY...AS STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW WITH 110+ KT H25 JET /70 KT AT H5/ NOSING INTO SRN NEB BY LATE IN THE DAY. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN NEB WILL LIKEWISE DEEPEN AND LIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL SD ALONG LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE PLENTIFUL/LARGE AREA OF 70+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/ AND WILL SUPPORT EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES WELL OVER 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...INCREASING UVV/S AND SLIGHT COOLING JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE LESS OF A CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BECOMING COLLOCATED...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO ERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /MKCPWOMKC/ WILL BE ISSUED BY 1200Z.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG NOSE OF 50 KT LLJ AND NORTH OF H85 BOUNDARY INTO MN/NRN IA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM ERN SD INTO CENTRAL IL IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY MORNINGS MCS...WHICH WILL LIFT NWD ON INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN LOCATION OF THIS FRONT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MCS COULD RE-INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS WI AND INTO MI THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EVEN IF EXPECTED MCS FAILS TO MATERIALIZE...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD INTO NRN MN/WI/MI.

...SRN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
WITH 994 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO SRN SD DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGER EWD PUSH TO DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/KS...WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY LEADING VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT INTO WRN NEB/WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SD/MN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE MODIFIED AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA...AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY CONVECTIVE FREE INTO NEB/WRN IA/KS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY UNDER 8 C/KM LAPSE RATES...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG INTO ERN NEB/SD. EXPECT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR INVOF LOW CENTER AND ALONG DRY LINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS CAP IS OVERCOME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE FLOW ARE FORECAST TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LOW CENTER WHERE INFLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS INCLUDING SEVERAL BOW ECHOES/LEWPS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/NRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS STRONG LOW CENTER LIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

...CONVECTION PRIOR TO 12Z STARTING TIME OF OUTLOOK...
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD INTO AL/GA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO 12Z AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

..EVANS.. 06/05/99

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 060102
-MKC AC 060102

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

REF WW NUMBER 391...VALID TIL 0300Z
REF WW NUMBER 392...VALID TIL 0400Z
REF WW NUMBER 393...VALID TIL 0400Z
REF WW NUMBER 394...VALID TIL 0500Z
REF WW NUMBER 395...VALID TIL 0700Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD AND NEB...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE FSD 30 N SUX 45 E BUB 20 E MHN 45 NE CDR 35 ENE RAP 20 NNW PIR 20 NW BKX 10 ESE FSD.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD..NEB..MN..IA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE HSI 30 ENE MCK 35 NNW CDR 40 SSE REJ 25 WNW AXN 35 NE MSP 35 WSW LSE 20 W ALO 35 NNW OMA 40 SE HSI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 10 WSW MSN 30 NNW 3OI 25 E MHK 25 E CSM 55 NNE AMA 60 N GCK 25 E IML 10 NNW BFF 25 NE 81V 40 SW BIS 45 ENE INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 N FST 30 N MAF 45 WNW ABI 35 NNW BWD 25 ENE JCT 40 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PBG 40 WSW SLK 15 E SYR 50 SE BUF ERI ...CONT... 15 SSE DTW 30 WNW CGX 45 SE OTM 30 WSW JLN 20 SSW FTW 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 50 WSW MRF 45 E 4LJ 40 NW GLD 25 NNE LIC 15 W PUB 20 SW ALS 35 SE PGA 30 ENE P38 60 NW ELY 45 WNW SUN 55 WNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE HUM 20 NW MCB 55 NNW MSL 40 NE CSV 25 ESE TYS 35 SE MCN 45 SSW MIA.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WAS EVIDENT ON EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NEWD INTO SWRN NEB/FAR NWRN KS AT THIS TIME...AROUND UPPER LOW OVER WY/CO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE UVV/S INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD. SURFACE PATTERN IS COMPLEX DUE TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER DEEPENING LOW CENTER MOVING INTO N-CENTRAL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO REPRESENTED BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN WAKE OF LOW INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...COUPLED BY STRONG FALLS INTO SWRN SD.

EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE NUMEROUS SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

...NEB/SD/IA/MN/SERN ND...
LBF/S SOUNDING WAS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADOES INTO WRN NEB/SRN SD AS UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...WITH BRN SHEARS NEAR 90 M2/S2 AND SR-HELICITIES OVER 300 M2/S2. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN NEAR LOW CENTER AND JUST NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SD-NEB BORDER...WHERE CONVERGENCE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONCENTRATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. INCREASED THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO ERN SD AS SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES AND DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS HEATING ABATES AND STRONG UVV/S INCREASE INTO WEAKLY CAPPED BUT VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS MAY QUICKLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SD AND DEVELOP INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT. MCS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD ALONG NOSE OF 40+ KT LLJ WHICH SETS UP BY LATER TONIGHT INTO MN.

...SRN NEB INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
EVENING SOUNDINGS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS YIELDED LITTLE OR NO CAP...THOUGH DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND HAS LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG DRY LINE. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS EARLIER MODEL RUNS IN INCREASING CONVERGENCE THROUGH H85 ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES NWD WHERE EWD PUSH WILL BE STRONGER.

SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION INTO SWRN TX MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WWD OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE THIS FAR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES...
WARM FRONT APPEARED TO EXTEND FROM SRN MN INTO THE NERN WI AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT OF ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NRN WI UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW. EVENING SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED AS STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS INTO IA AND MN.

..EVANS.. 06/06/99

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Several new links have been added:

Dave Ewoldt's chase account of April 26, 1991: http://www.okweatherwatch.com/redrock.htm

Charles Edward's chase photos from April 17, 1995: http://www.cloud9tours.com/bear/pictures/temple.jpg

Stephen Jascourt's chase account of May 13, 1995: http://web.archive.org/web/20001204163700/...urt/report.html
Was able to find it on the "Wayback machine" archival site even though the page no longer exists. Not all of the image links work but most do.

NWS-Quad Cities write-up and damage photos from April 8, 1999: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/..._8_99/index.htm

EDIT: Also was able to use the Wayback Machine to retrieve a case study about the June 2, 1990 Ohio Valley outbreak that disappeared from its original site just a couple days after I linked to it.
http://web.archive.org/web/20010803214241/.../er/pit/cvg.htm

ADDITIONAL EDIT: Added Amos Magliocco's chase account to the list of links for April 11, 2005. http://cycloneroad.com/2005april11.htm
I do include links to everybody who chased on a particular day regardless of whether they actually chased the high risk.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I just ran across a website that has LOADS of archived weather data, including SPC and NWS text products, and lots and lots of model data, surface & upper air charts, etc. About the only thing they didn't seem to archive is the SPC SWODY1 graphics . However, all is not lost. They did have several Public Severe Weather Outlooks that I was missing, which will appear in the high risk archive shortly. Meanwhile ST members get a sneak preview:

BTW, the website can be reached through http://mtarchive.geol.iastate.edu/2004/

Just dig around through the directories awhile (they go back to 2001). Mucho weather data.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1 PM CDT TUE 16 APR 2002

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
ALL OF MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. A VERY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM VICINITY OF THE WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STRONG WINDS ALOFT ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...TRACKING ACROSS IOWA INTO WISCONSIN.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

JACK HALES
LEAD FORECASTER, STORM PREDICTION CENTER


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
539 AM CST WED 31 JUL 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

TWO MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE INITIAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATER TODAY. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WILL REACH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN ...AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH TIME OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

LATER TONIGHT...THE STRONG TROUGH OVER MONTANA WILL REACH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR NO LONGER APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD/INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AREA.

THIS IS STILL POTENTIALLY A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

RICHARD THOMPSON
LEAD FORECASTER, STORM PREDICTION CENTER

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 AM CST MON 23 DEC 2002

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL TX TO WESTERN AL. A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTH TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRANSPORT MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHERN LA...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...AND A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THIS REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS...CAPABLE OF SPAWNING STRONG TORNADOES. THE REGION OF GREATEST TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM EAST OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS STORMS TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

JOHN HART
LEAD FORECASTER, STORM PREDICTION CENTER


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN 6 APR 2003

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AT MIDDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION EAST INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ARE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO SUPERCELLS AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND SHEAR...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

JONATHAN RACY
OUTLOOK/MESOSCALE FORECASTER
STORM PREDICTION CENTER

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I'm trying something new with the archive-I'm redoing the outlooks so that they look like the actual SPC page. To do the ones from 2001-2002 I figured I'd just save one outlook from that time period off of the Wayback Machine and edit it to plug in the proper graphics and text. However it's turning out to be a little harder than I thought-nothing big, just a little alignment problem it would be nice to get rid of.

Here is a sample: http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchi...40601otlkA.html

Now access the other ones for the day by manually reentering the one letter in the URL in your browser's URL bar (from A to B, C & D). Then use the back and forward buttons to shuffle quickly through them. You'll see what I mean-the graphics shift positions from side to side, rather than being all in one spot as they should be.

Anybody that's really good with HTML have an idea how this might be corrected?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

June 4 is finally up. Go here and scroll down to view.

Not all of the links to SPC products are operational yet. If you have a chase account online from that day and are not listed, please email or PM me and I'll add yours to the list ASAP.