At this point I am still not spending any time looking at the long range, due to the flip flopping and model disagreement noted by Andy just above. In past years I would drive myself nuts with this so I am trying to avoid that. I am also keeping my overall expectations in check, given last year’s completely uneventful trip that I aborted after just a few days. When I do get out there, I am going to be pretty rusty as it will essentially be two full years since any serious chasing. Even 2016 was only one week for me, right after Dodge City (which I was at) and Chapman (which I missed due to being at the more southern target near Wichita), it was going to be dead for a week so I came home early; was going to return to the Plains but the season remained inactive for the next few weeks. So I’ve basically chased for one week since the 2015 season [emoji19]
My two-week trip can *start* anytime between May 14 and May 21. I am already of the mind that there won’t be much reason to head out before the 16th at the earliest (that would be my travel day, first day available to chase being the 17th), mostly just from the sense I am getting from reading this thread. I prefer not leaving before then anyway. I need to be around for Mother’s Day and then I have a big work deadline on the 15th, which I could manage from the road if I had to but I would rather just get it done here at home. Also, since I only have two weeks off from work, I would much rather start the trip on a weekend, which creates a 16-day trip bookended by the weekends (and it’s easy enough to squeak in the first Friday as an extra day); in contrast, if I leave mid-week then I have to return mid-week and the trip is not quite as long. But if it looks good before the weekend of the 19th, I will certainly head out. If by some chance it looks good earlier next week, I am prepared to miss it, get through my work deadline, and take my chances on the latter portion of the month. As a chase vacationer, you know you’re always going to miss stuff.
Although as noted above I am trying not to expect too much, FWIW I do have a hunch this season can turn out to be like 2013, with all the action condensed into only two weeks but chaseable weather nearly every day with some significant (and unfortunately tragic) events. Hopefully it will be like that again (minus the tragedies) and will allow me to redeem myself, because 2013 turned out to be a 14 consecutive day experiment in how many ways I could manage to NOT be in the right place at the right time, culminating with getting stuck in the mud and ending a chase on May 30 and deciding to fly home as scheduled on May 31 rather than changing plans and staying for El Reno - which was probably for the best, given my bad luck the previous two weeks.
