2018 severe wx/chase season discussion

[Kai-Asle]

Currently, all models show northwesterly flow and ridging over the Plains for the extended forecast period. We will fly into Denver Wednesday 9th and I hope we´ll see a positive trend towards a better flow regime by then. Looks pretty shut down for now.

Hi, Joerg.
Long time, no see. I too am coming over on May 14th and I'm also keeping my fingers crossed for some weather action like yesterday. As many people in here have already mentioned things are beginning to shape up around May 14th. Thanks for all you inputs and thoughts, guys!
They are greatly appreciated.

Hope to see you out in the Plains.
Kai-Asle

 

[Kyle Carnahan]

Looks like a possible hook trying to form just NNW of Blair OK

 

[Oliver G.]

The CFS from today looks not so good next time I hope it look better at the weekend


Sent from my iPhone using Stormtrack

 

[Kyle Carnahan]

Agreed. This one fell apart as the days heating dissipated. Onward to another day!
I'm still in disbelief of this years lack of tornadic activity.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Can the 00Z CFS run please verify (although that first trough would have me gritting my teeth since it rolls through just 4 days before my vacation starts, but then there's another nice one on the 19th-20th)?

 

[Jeff House]

MJO signal is a little muddled right now. Index only goes so far. Peek at Pacific and Indian Ocean shows plenty of convection to go around. Visually one cannot just say the MJO is in phase X or Y. However, we like that convection over Indonesia into the central Pacific. weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/index-e.html Kochi U. in Japan has a good Pacific satellite page.

Ensembles 11-15 day and weekly forecasts week 2 both show renewed action the week of May 14. Some charts show it a little north for this time of year. Others are right on for the central/southern Plains. Too early to get into details like VBV or timing of course. Pattern is there enough to start planning if one has flexible chasecation leave at work.

@Nikola Pavlovic welcome to Kansas! How long are you chasing in the US? I have to ask here per Target Area rules. I hope through at least May 21!

Weekly charts also hint at another opportunity toward Memorial Day. That is a little beyond the skill of MJO forecasts. If we keep -AAM one could not argue with more action that time of year. It is the climo super peak. Weekly average tornado counts can be debated. However last week of May tends to produce the most chasable sequences per US Tornadoes statistical research. (not a journal, but solid methods)

Climo sure favors that week 4 toward Memorial Day. Week 3 also has great climo. Since week 2 is also flashing signals on dynamical models, and a bird in the hand.., flexible chasecationers might consider prepping.

 

[Nikola Pavlovic]

@Jeff House

Thank you! I live in Chicago, this is my 4th storm chase season here, i will chase as much as my job permits me.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Today's run of the CFS (5/4) is looking much better. I don't concentrate on daily runs, but look for favorable patterns over time. It would appear that after May 14th or so, the pattern becomes quite active. This also falls in line with NCEP models, although I believe the CFS is partially derived from the same modeling (?). When you add the non-scientific seasonal factor and GFS forecast of good RH staying put after about the 10th, it should be game on.

 

[Oliver G.]

Oh it looks good now! I hope now! I’m Fly end next week more models showing now action mid May

 

[Quincy Vagell]

Some more stats to put into perspective just how slow this year has been so far:

• April only had 5 severe weather event days, which since 2000, was by far the least.
  • The previous low for April was just 10 events in 2013
  • The most was 22 in 2006 and the average is 14-15 for the month of April.
• January - April had 21 severe weather event days, which is the second least since 2000.
  • 2001 had one less (20) through the end of April.

The average amount of severe weather event days for May is 19-20, if anyone is wondering.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I'm frankly shocked that April 2011 didn't blow away all the others, and that the year was least active overall.

CFS last couple runs looking not so great, big SW/SCentral US ridge. Any severe threats would be NW flow riding over that. That's lovely...in June.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I’m just not even going to look at it. Seems to be flip-flopping every day. No reason to get myself anxious or aggravated. My “window” begins May 14, I have only two weeks to chase but at least have some flexibility between May 14 and June 2. I am not even going to bother looking at the longer range models until maybe around this coming Wednesday.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mark Blue]

The most was 22 in 2006 and the average is 14-15 for the month of April.

Maybe there is a glimmer of hope since 2006 was widely considered to be an abysmal chase year. IIRC it shut down after April and it was all she wrote until a late August event in SD that produced a nice tornado. If May gives us at least two or maybe three more upper level lows that move slowly like this last one it *might* go down differently, but only time will tell.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Just look at the bright side. You could be one of the tour passengers paying $2,500+ per week to see blue skies. I really feel for the tour companies.

 

[Alex Elmore]

Just look at the bright side. You could be one of the tour passengers paying $2,500+ per week to see blue skies. I really feel for the tour companies.

I was thinking the same thing this morning. I'd be curious to know how much of an impact a down season has on tours for that season or the next. In the current situation, 2017 wasn't that great and 2018 is trending worse. I'm not sure how much weight that fact has on those interested in going on tours later this season or next year.

I have roughly from this Monday until May 29 to chase. Looking at long-term guidance is driving me mad, so I think I'm just going focus on a couple days to a week out for the remainder of that period and hope for at the very least some low-end setups. Those seem to have paid off better for me in the past.

*Proceeds to still go immediately to look at long-term guidance.*