It looks like the atmosphere is making baby steps toward a more active pattern. Despite increased activity, it looks like the next week will probably run near or slightly below average with respect to climatology. That could change if the pattern late this week looks more significant.
Shortwave energy is progged to pivot from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes around the middle of this week. Tuesday may feature some localized and/or sporadic severe, but limited boundary layer moisture and capping suggests that this will probably not feature any "enhanced" chase prospects. Wednesday looks a bit more interesting, in a northwest flow regime, coincident with improved boundary layer moisture and at least modestly favorable deep layer wind fields. With that said, the mid-Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley region looks favored, which may be out of range for those who want to stay focused on the Plains for the days following. Thursday looks like a transition day, but details are tough at this point. Maybe it features isolated severe in the High Plains or even along a warm front farther east, but only time will tell.
Friday-Saturday looks more likely to feature at least one, if not two chase-worthy setups in the Plains. Details will certainly change, but a positively tilted trough is modeled to swing from the Four Corners region into the High Plains through the period. The setup is not all that different from last week, although the speed of the system looks faster and troughing not as vigorous.
Medium to long-range trends for the following week (especially mid to late next week) are increasingly encouraging. Perhaps the Lower 48 will finally be moving into a pattern with more consistent/substantial troughing across the West. It's been a long time coming, but in a way, it's better to see this pattern during the second half of May, rather than earlier in the season.
Anyone with chasecations scheduled for this week should enjoy at least a chase or two; possibly more if things work out just right. Next week looks even more active and although it's tough to say for late May, climatology and ensemble data suggest the signs are encouraging.
Thoughts about the chase tours:
Even though this year has been quieter than most, even climatology suggests that April through the first week of May is risky at best when it comes to anything more than isolated chase setups in the Plains. Anyone who chasecations or participates in a tour this early in the year should be advised that even climatology suggests that half or more of days between April and the first week of May will not be chase days. The only year in recent memory that I can think of that featured consistent early May activity was 2007. Even this year was a bit of an anomaly with having 3-4 chase days in a row in the Plains. Late April is usually active (not this year), but that activity is most consistently found over poor chase terrain, from the Ozarks into Dixie. It's not common for extended chase periods until at least the second week of May.
Bottom line, if you're going to block out a week in late April/early May, be ready for some backup plans with sight seeing, checking out restaurants, etc. I would hope that the tour groups are aware of climatology. I'm sure they are and after all, they probably make money anyway, even if a tour group doesn't see much for a week, since they're usually booked well in advance.
