Brandon Centeno
EF1
Enjoy your $20
2018 severe wx/chase season discussion
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
Marc R. O'Leary
EF5
Finally some 2018 action in my neck of the woods and I'm laid up with back spasms. Typical.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
If you look at everything in totality, things are not looking too bad. The forecast cap over the next 10 days would appear to be acceptable as does moisture extent. The upper level flow is acceptable with SW and NW flow events possible. In a little over a week, things could get really interesting. We are now officially in the time frame where the RH is entrenched and "same day forecast" shortwaves will often dictate where the action is.
Jeff House
Supporter
Delays resolving the Tennessee Valley trough late next week push back the quality Rockies trough sequence. This is a delay, vs just feeling like one. Being a day 8-10 cutoff low forecast, it could shift either worse or (hopefully) better. Until then, mesoscale accidents are possible through early next week.
The 11-15 day still looks nice on the Ensembles and Weeklies. Members and clusters have timing differences, but many of them are fairly classic Rockies troughs. Many times delayed forecast patterns eventually happen. Hope this is one of those cases. MJO got stuck, but may try to move in about 10 days.
The 11-15 day still looks nice on the Ensembles and Weeklies. Members and clusters have timing differences, but many of them are fairly classic Rockies troughs. Many times delayed forecast patterns eventually happen. Hope this is one of those cases. MJO got stuck, but may try to move in about 10 days.
Brett Nickeson
EF2
Here's the question though, do those Rockies troughs just get stuck as pinched lows on the west side of the Rockies and fail to eject into the plains? The two troughs (and arguably three) in the more near-term range are forecast to do exactly that, and given the overall pattern with the Hudon to east Hudson low staying stout and in-place for the foreseeable future, I just don't see how anything actually progresses across the plains.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but at this point I'm tempted to get very pessimistic about significant chase opportunities for the next two to two-and-a-half weeks. Sure, there might be a mesoscale accident sometime, but this is May. Not July in Iowa.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but at this point I'm tempted to get very pessimistic about significant chase opportunities for the next two to two-and-a-half weeks. Sure, there might be a mesoscale accident sometime, but this is May. Not July in Iowa.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
With each passing day I am losing hope in our prospects for this season. I cannot find anything encouraging from model data. Everything continues to suggest more of the same. It seems like the dreaded Hudson Bay vortex will never go away. All we are left with is cutoff lows spinning away over the intermountain west while ridging dominates the central U.S. Meanwhile, quality moisture has been hard to come by thanks to that evil east coast troughing and recycled continental air. This has been the most disappointing year since 2009. I may need therapy soon.
Dan Robinson
EF5
Agreed, it looks quite dismal. Seeing shades of 2005 in this pattern - Hudson Bay low entrenched until after June 1. After that we had a big pattern change and few great events before the summer ridge took over. That scenario though leaves a small window for the atmosphere to sort itself out before the end-of-season death ridge.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Who would have thought the northern mid-Atlantic would be the severe hotspot of the country in mid-May?
This season has been like a teenage girl spending 13 hours getting ready for the prom and not having her date show up. Sign....
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I'd let a few more model runs pass before everyone throws in the towel. Even if the last week in May and the first week in June turns out to be good, it won't be a total bust season. The models are on crack before the season ends.
Quincy Vagell
EF4
This reminds me a bit of my days back on the East Coast... When there was constant talk about a "great" winter pattern setting up in the medium/long range, with chattering beginning in October and November, only to gradually fade away into oblivion by February and March with the ground still brown.
While this season is not over, we're near the all-star break, but our team keeps losing games. Strikeouts are high and the number of home runs hit, let's just say, it's been near a record low. Sure, there have been a few games won and even a couple for the highlight reel, if you were lucky enough to be in the stands with a good view. However, we're most likely out of contention for the pennant and we're well below .500 for the year. Sure, there could be a historic late season comeback, but barring something like that, this will be a year that simply wasn't ours for the winning.
Yes, things could change, but the trends are becoming increasingly less favorable. The silver lining (I feel like I've been saying this all year) is that even the worst years seem to have a diamond or two in the rough between late May and mid-June. Think back to 2014, when an epically bad Plains season was rescued in the 9th inning by hitters such as Pilger and Coleridge, seemingly out of nowhere. Recall 2017, a year that saw several highly anticipated games only fall short, sometimes painstakingly short, of expectations. Another 9th inning wonder came to bat when a rare Moderate Risk on the Front Range, of all places, actually performed and featured a few photogenic tornadoes.
Another year that comes to mind is 2015. That year, overall, wasn't great and it was the first and only time that I strayed west of the Rockies during a late May chasecation. I had a friend with me and after two abysmal chases in marginal setups, I did not want to disappoint her with a week of sunburn. It resulted in missing out on the Canadian day. The drive back was perhaps even harder, as I was not paying close attention and went to Albuquerque, when I should have been in Dora...
We can all learn from seasons like this. My advice is don't live and die by the models with every breath. Forecasts change. Speaking again about my East Coast roots...some of the most memorable, major snowfalls were not anticipated more than a couple of days in advance. Sometimes a narrow band of snow, drawing parallels to a residual outflow boundary, waiting to be lit up, brought rush hour to a standstill as bystanders could only get out of their cars and look in awe. Likewise, magical tornadoes can spin out of seemingly marginal-looking environments. Like snowstorms, some historic outbreaks can be well predicted, even as far as a week in advance. However, history tells us that beyond day 7, the skill of computer models becomes increasingly erratic, as extended model forecasts can and will change, sometimes drastically.
In a way, I'm almost glad it's working out this way. I would rather have tempered expectations going into a below average stretch, than have hopes of fields of wedges only taken away by morning convection and mammoth cap busts. The beauty of low expectations is that if the pattern does change, or if there is an unforeseen magical storm chase day, then it feels that much more special.
The bottom line... peak season is just about here and the models look pretty bad for the next week and as far as we can see with at least modest confidence, the signs are not encouraging. As a chaser, you have a few ways to look at this. Are you willing to wait it out in hopes that the pattern does change, allowing for a stellar finish to the season, or do you dial back the excitement and just take a deep breath? Be ready, but flexible. Expect the unexpected. Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. Stay optimistic, but don't be naive. You never know when the next MRGL or SLGT day could feature the storm chase of a lifetime.
While this season is not over, we're near the all-star break, but our team keeps losing games. Strikeouts are high and the number of home runs hit, let's just say, it's been near a record low. Sure, there have been a few games won and even a couple for the highlight reel, if you were lucky enough to be in the stands with a good view. However, we're most likely out of contention for the pennant and we're well below .500 for the year. Sure, there could be a historic late season comeback, but barring something like that, this will be a year that simply wasn't ours for the winning.
Yes, things could change, but the trends are becoming increasingly less favorable. The silver lining (I feel like I've been saying this all year) is that even the worst years seem to have a diamond or two in the rough between late May and mid-June. Think back to 2014, when an epically bad Plains season was rescued in the 9th inning by hitters such as Pilger and Coleridge, seemingly out of nowhere. Recall 2017, a year that saw several highly anticipated games only fall short, sometimes painstakingly short, of expectations. Another 9th inning wonder came to bat when a rare Moderate Risk on the Front Range, of all places, actually performed and featured a few photogenic tornadoes.
Another year that comes to mind is 2015. That year, overall, wasn't great and it was the first and only time that I strayed west of the Rockies during a late May chasecation. I had a friend with me and after two abysmal chases in marginal setups, I did not want to disappoint her with a week of sunburn. It resulted in missing out on the Canadian day. The drive back was perhaps even harder, as I was not paying close attention and went to Albuquerque, when I should have been in Dora...
We can all learn from seasons like this. My advice is don't live and die by the models with every breath. Forecasts change. Speaking again about my East Coast roots...some of the most memorable, major snowfalls were not anticipated more than a couple of days in advance. Sometimes a narrow band of snow, drawing parallels to a residual outflow boundary, waiting to be lit up, brought rush hour to a standstill as bystanders could only get out of their cars and look in awe. Likewise, magical tornadoes can spin out of seemingly marginal-looking environments. Like snowstorms, some historic outbreaks can be well predicted, even as far as a week in advance. However, history tells us that beyond day 7, the skill of computer models becomes increasingly erratic, as extended model forecasts can and will change, sometimes drastically.
In a way, I'm almost glad it's working out this way. I would rather have tempered expectations going into a below average stretch, than have hopes of fields of wedges only taken away by morning convection and mammoth cap busts. The beauty of low expectations is that if the pattern does change, or if there is an unforeseen magical storm chase day, then it feels that much more special.
The bottom line... peak season is just about here and the models look pretty bad for the next week and as far as we can see with at least modest confidence, the signs are not encouraging. As a chaser, you have a few ways to look at this. Are you willing to wait it out in hopes that the pattern does change, allowing for a stellar finish to the season, or do you dial back the excitement and just take a deep breath? Be ready, but flexible. Expect the unexpected. Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. Stay optimistic, but don't be naive. You never know when the next MRGL or SLGT day could feature the storm chase of a lifetime.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Imagine that happening to the teenage girl two years in a row, because that’s what it’s like now for us...
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Quincy, I appreciate your balanced perspective (and your writing style). There is a distinctly different mindset, I believe, between a chase vacationer and a chaser that lives on or near the Plains. While we are all disappointed at the moment, it is much easier for the Plains resident to remain ready, flexible, and ever hopeful for a spontaneous event. It is infinitely more stressful, frustrating, anxiety-provoking and disappointing for the chase vacationer, who invests so much emotion and hope in anticipation of the one or two lousy weeks a year when he or she can live out their passion. For those people, to use your analogy, their team may have only a week or two left to mount a comeback.
As for me, my window that can include two weeks of chasing runs from tomorrow through June 2. I am definitely not heading out this week, the soonest might be next weekend, for a 5/19-6/2 trip. I was prepared to miss my daughters’ play next Sunday for chasing, but I also don’t want to miss it for no reason, to be jerking around under a blue sky. I hate already seeing a dismal forecast for the start of the trip, watching the available days erode as each model run extends further into a dismal future. I am already toying with the idea of trying to shift everything back a week, but it would be difficult for me to to do a 5/26-6/9 trip, because I have more family stuff going on on 6/5, and it would be harder to miss that than to miss the play I am already missing.
This is what I mean about anxiety, trying to shift all these variable around. This is also true for people living on the Plains, I mean anyone can end up with a personal or family scheduling conflict on the one good chase day, but trying to shift whole weeks of being away from work and home is exceedingly difficult unless retired with minimal responsibilities. It’s enough to make me wonder why I even pursue such a hobby, which has so much potential to disappoint, with so little control over outcomes.
As for me, my window that can include two weeks of chasing runs from tomorrow through June 2. I am definitely not heading out this week, the soonest might be next weekend, for a 5/19-6/2 trip. I was prepared to miss my daughters’ play next Sunday for chasing, but I also don’t want to miss it for no reason, to be jerking around under a blue sky. I hate already seeing a dismal forecast for the start of the trip, watching the available days erode as each model run extends further into a dismal future. I am already toying with the idea of trying to shift everything back a week, but it would be difficult for me to to do a 5/26-6/9 trip, because I have more family stuff going on on 6/5, and it would be harder to miss that than to miss the play I am already missing.
This is what I mean about anxiety, trying to shift all these variable around. This is also true for people living on the Plains, I mean anyone can end up with a personal or family scheduling conflict on the one good chase day, but trying to shift whole weeks of being away from work and home is exceedingly difficult unless retired with minimal responsibilities. It’s enough to make me wonder why I even pursue such a hobby, which has so much potential to disappoint, with so little control over outcomes.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Maybe just trying to hold out some hope for my trip but looks like next Saturday might hold some potential somewhere around NC KS...GFS has held serve with a similar look for a few runs now. It has much more of a crashing cold front look to the surface pattern than I'd like to see, especially by late May, but at least it's something.
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Anton Falco
EF0
I agree entirely, and this hit incredibly close to home.
At this point, I don't have the money, or the time, to fly down for 2-3 days for excellent synoptic setups, on short notice, because a flight from Southern Ontario will cost me a fortune; not including any other expenses. Driving and forecasting for a tour group allows me to head down to the Plains for 2+ weeks at a major discount, but the trade off is absolutely no flexibility on dates. I'll be down south from May 18th to June 3rd-ish. We tend to pick the last two weeks of May for climatology puposes, but as everyone here knows, no guarantees. May 26th in Colorado pretty much saved my two weeks last year, as the second week was pulse storms and working on my tan.
Last year, I watched every single model run update leading up to my take off date, and all I got from it was anxiety.
This year, as much as I still check this thread for the incredible wealth of knowledge (working on my teleconnections knowledge), I only check model runs every few days, and I feel much better. As a bit of a control freak, it does feel strange saying that.
I'm not very impressed with what I've been seeing so far for my weeks synoptically, but I suppose it can change a bit. As Quincy stated, there will likely be some diamonds in the rough. Structure and lightning is still great for me (90% of Ontario storms are rain wrapped messes), so as long as blue sky isn't the only sight, I'll be content.
