2018 severe wx/chase season discussion

[Brandon Centeno]

Near term season looks quite bleak. Hard to say much about May 22-31, but ensemble looks aren’t the best. Still, this is the point of lowest predictability among models, so big changes could occur at range this time of year yet. Not holding out much hope at this point for myself; June 3-17 I’ll be in Alabama, away from phone and internet, taking part in a required field training exercise prior to commissioning later this summer into the AF as weather officer. So, you can basically write in some big time tornado events in the north plains and Midwest June 3-17.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I agree entirely, and this hit incredibly close to home.

At this point, I don't have the money, or the time, to fly down for 2-3 days for excellent synoptic setups, on short notice, because a flight from Southern Ontario will cost me a fortune; not including any other expenses. Driving and forecasting for a tour group allows me to head down to the Plains for 2+ weeks at a major discount, but the trade off is absolutely no flexibility on dates. I'll be down south from May 18th to June 3rd-ish. We tend to pick the last two weeks of May for climatology puposes, but as everyone here knows, no guarantees. May 26th in Colorado pretty much saved my two weeks last year, as the second week was pulse storms and working on my tan.

Last year, I watched every single model run update leading up to my take off date, and all I got from it was anxiety.

This year, as much as I still check this thread for the incredible wealth of knowledge (working on my teleconnections knowledge), I only check model runs every few days, and I feel much better. As a bit of a control freak, it does feel strange saying that.

I'm not very impressed with what I've been seeing so far for my weeks synoptically, but I suppose it can change a bit. As Quincy stated, there will likely be some diamonds in the rough. Structure and lightning is still great for me (90% of Ontario storms are rain wrapped messes), so as long as blue sky isn't the only sight, I'll be content.

Anton, I am a control freak too, so I get what you are saying. This is probably a psychologically bad hobby for control freaks like us, because so much is completely out of our control. Any challenging pursuit has disappointments, but when you learn from them it’s worth it. I train in Brazilian jiu jitsu, and when I screw up in a sparring match I still learn something and am one step closer to the next rank. But when the disappointment has nothing to do with performance, and everything to do with lack of opportunity to even get in the game - because there is no game - well, that’s just plain frustrating, with no redeeming value. It would be like me training for a Brazilian jiu jitsu tournament, only to find out that there is no tournament after all. What am I going to learn from that? Other than that maybe it’s a waste of time to train for the next one.

In some ways you’re better off knowing your two weeks is your two weeks, for better or for worse. Even *thinking* about trying to change my chase trip is causing me anxiety because of all the different variables. I am starting to think, what’s the point, all these machinations, and for what, ultimately? Even the setups that look good get screwed up half the time, so why torture myself? Just stick with the original plan and let it ride.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I (like a lot of people here), have been chasing for a very long time. My first tornado chase was in 1987. Back in those times, forecasting was limited to visits to the local NWS office. We had no laptops, and television was worthless except for a morning show on PBS that provided aviation weather / charts. I would often leave Tucson when the first major storm was forecast to strike TX, NM, OK or Kansas. I would generally stay in the Alley, in a motel room, for the entire season. I was very lucky to make a good living as a stock photographer and had zero commitments at home. But it was still painful at times, as I wasted a lot of money and several years of my life waiting for storms to develop.

So I feel the pain of those who do not live in the Plains and are subject to suffering through bad seasons. One thing I learned quickly was there are very few perfect seasons. You took what you got, and sometimes there were big surprises. I don't know how many times I departed Tornado Alley confident the season was over, e.g., capped out or total lack of shear, only to hear several days later that some "insane" tornado occurred in NW flow or formed after breaking an ironclad cap.

The bottom line is if you are only seeking major outbreaks, high risk days or non-stop action then you will be very disappointed with chasing as a hobby or career. My priority is severe weather, but my chasing is also about the travel, unexpected things along the way and visiting with friends I only see a few times a year. If you are willing accept there will be long shot days like Campo, then the pursuit is worth it.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Warren, I wasn’t at Campo and don’t have any recollection of that day at all. What kind of conditions were there leading up to that tornado that surprised so many people?

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Warren, I wasn’t at Campo and don’t have any recollection of that day at all. What kind of conditions were there leading up to that tornado that surprised so many people?

On Campo day (2010/05/31) there was westerly mid-level flow (h5) around 30 kt - not great but certainly adequate for E CO. 15-20 kt southerly 850 winds and southerly at the surface. A ~999 mb low sat over SE CO. CAPE was on the order of 2k (slightly higher than had been progged the day before), again adequate.

SPC day-2 had a 15% svr probability and on day-1 Campo was on the western edge of a slight risk with 2% for tornadoes. That 2% was the outlook posted 20z and was actually a downgrade from an earlier 5%

In summary nothing that would bring a long-distance chaser (like me) out to the Plains, but worth chasing for someone already there with time on their hands. It is encouraging for anyone fretting about a lack of good setups for their chasecation. Climatology can work! Although I’ve been wondering lately if it works as reliably as in years past. Any thoughts?

 

[Warren Faidley]

I was not there either , but it was the EXACT type of set-up I live and chase for. I was in NE setting up for what looked like a big day 2 event. Jason and others were there and got what I believe is the best tornado photo-op ever. It was a slight risk, 2 percent tornado day --- but.... the 60f dew point should have been a red alert as that's a must go situation in E/CO and E/NM. The NWS office in Pueblo did an excellent job of picking up the potential.... one of the reasons I read their outlook every day. I believe Stan Rose wrote the outlook? I call these set-ups "sneak attacks." They often occur with slightly higher dew points and very hard to detect short waves moving out of the Rockies. They generally involve a single classic or LP supercell. Although there are many, the insane Spearman, TX tornado shot by Howard B. Bluestein on May 30, 1990 is a classic. I believe it was a NW flow event. I lucked out big time with the "Twister" tornado / LP storm I shot on 5/29/94. (Seen below). A NWS forecaster in Topeka detected a very faint short wave on a visible satellite image and noted it in a special weather discussion. I believe his term was something like "The atmosphere was sitting on a keg of dynamite." The cap broke and a freakout LP formed. I believe it was a no-risk day? The bottom line is not to give up as obvious mega-events are not the only game when everything looks hopeless. When the DP's are in the high 50's and 60's in the western regions of TA, you stay and play.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Warren, thanks for the perspective, it’s a good reminder not to wallow in despair and it does give me hope. Trust me, I’m not just looking for the big synoptically evident outbreaks, I am more than happy to take my chances with mesoscale accidents - as long as there actually are opportunities. Problem is, some of the runs for certain days the week of the 21st don’t look like they will afford much chance at all. I can only soothe myself with the thought that it’s too far out and things can change.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brandon Centeno]

Yeah - hoping for a western trough that can actually eject some substantial vorticity maxima isn’t hoping for gigantic, ominous slam-dunk outbreaks. Just asking for something that has a little more lead time than 12 hours because most of us working jobs can’t just take off on a whim to chase.

Idk why the “traditionalists” have to talk down successful patterns when we are in the midst of garbage, truly marginal supercell (not even marginal tornado) environments. It’s okay to admit the pattern is bad and that we are on some very low end stuff. Can you have success? Definitely. But it’s much riskier and not everyone can afford the gamble on such low-end, blocky patterns such as what we are in right now.

Good luck to chasecationers who cannot adjust their dates. As a local, I have somewhat more flexibility but working a part time job, and having commitments June 3-17 I can’t back out of.. things are looking bleak lol. Think best shot for me (and maybe other May chasers) will come in the 23-31 timeframe. June probably will have some noteworthy stuff (not hard when the season has gone as it has), definitely wish I had June to fall back on. There is always next year

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Again, maybe just trying to maintain the rose-colored glasses for SOMETHING of interest during my window (how fast things went sour after looking relatively promising as recently as last Wednesday), but GFS and CFS hold out some hope for next weekend. Whether it will be in KS or IL...well they can't really settle on that at this point, lol. Attached sounding is for near Troy Grove, IL off this morning's 12Z GFS. Something closer to home would actually work better for me since I plain can't afford to roam from one end of the Plains to the other after marginal setups. If that big trough doesn't materialize, it's local chasing or no chasing for me during my vacation week.

Although actually the whole 2-day stretch next weekend doesn't look half bad for a week out. If it looked perfect at this range I'd be worried.

 

[RRogers]

I was not there either , but it was the EXACT type of set-up I live and chase for. I was in NE setting up for what looked like a big day 2 event. Jason and others were there and got what I believe is the best tornado photo-op ever. It was a slight risk, 2 percent tornado day --- but.... the 60f dew point should have been a red alert as that's a must go situation in E/CO and E/NM. The NWS office in Pueblo did an excellent job of picking up the potential.... one of the reasons I read their outlook every day. I believe Stan Rose wrote the outlook? I call these set-ups "sneak attacks." They often occur with slightly higher dew points and very hard to detect short waves moving out of the Rockies. They generally involve a single classic or LP supercell. Although there are many, the insane Spearman, TX tornado shot by Howard B. Bluestein on May 30, 1990 is a classic. I believe it was a NW flow event. I lucked out big time with the "Twister" tornado / LP storm I shot on 5/29/94. (Seen below). A NWS forecaster in Topeka detected a very faint short wave on a visible satellite image and noted it in a special weather discussion. I believe his term was something like "The atmosphere was sitting on a keg of dynamite." The cap broke and a freakout LP formed. I believe it was a no-risk day? The bottom line is not to give up as obvious mega-events are not the only game when everything looks hopeless. When the DP's are in the high 50's and 60's in the western regions of TA, you stay and play.

View attachment 16907

Warren,
My wife bought your picture for me a few years ago and I never knew who took it. Fantastic shot! I hope she didn’t pay some thief for it but I appreciate the storm nonetheless. Thanks for the words of encouragement on the season, we head out Wednesday


Sent from my iPhone using Stormtrack

 

[Warren Faidley]

"Idk why the “traditionalists” have to talk down successful patterns when we are in the midst of garbage, truly marginal supercell (not even marginal tornado) environments. It’s okay to admit the pattern is bad and that we are on some very low end stuff. Can you have success? Definitely. But it’s much riskier and not everyone can afford the gamble on such low-end, blocky patterns such as what we are in right now.

Hi Brandon, I think the reason is because there are certain areas of the country where severe weather is quite unpredictable and climatology / topography do play a role outside of obvious big systems that many chasers demand or they don't chase. The chasers before me often called it things like "Panhandle Magic." It's true (and I agree) such long shots are generally not worth driving out to chase if you don't live in the area.

Local NWS offices are superior at prediction localized events that other forecasters might miss. Here is a great example, from today's PM forecast discussion from DDC regarding tomorrow, a day that has received little attention, in the middle of "bad season." (Edited from longer discussion):

"WE HAVE INCREASED POP GRIDS FOR THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO, WITH AT LEAST LOW GRADE SEVERE LIKELY (HAIL TO QUARTERS, WINDS TO 60 MPH). HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL (HAIL 2"+/TORNADOES) WILL ALL COME DOWN TO STORM MORPHOLOGY BY THE 5-7 PM TIME FRAME. IF STORMS HAVE ALREADY CONGEALED INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/COMPLEX BY THEN, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE EASTERN CWA. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE (A BIG IF, SINCE BULK SHEAR IS STILL MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS) AS WE APPROACH SUNSET, THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE. 12Z NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG 0-1 KM EHI FOR WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS AFTER 7 PM, BUT THE TORNADO RISK WILL ONLY BE REALIZED IF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND AVOID DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE.60 MPH). HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL (HAIL 2"+/TORNADOES)."

 

[John Homenuk]

Hi Brandon, I think the reason is because there are certain areas of the country where severe weather is quite unpredictable and climatology / topography do play a role outside of obvious big systems that many chasers demand or they don't chase. The chasers before me often called it things like "Panhandle Magic." It's true (and I agree) such long shots are generally not worth driving out to chase if you don't live in the area.

Local NWS offices are superior at prediction localized events that other forecasters might miss. Here is a great example, from today's PM forecast discussion from DDC regarding tomorrow, a day that has received little attention, in the middle of "bad season." (Edited from longer discussion):

"WE HAVE INCREASED POP GRIDS FOR THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO, WITH AT LEAST LOW GRADE SEVERE LIKELY (HAIL TO QUARTERS, WINDS TO 60 MPH). HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL (HAIL 2"+/TORNADOES) WILL ALL COME DOWN TO STORM MORPHOLOGY BY THE 5-7 PM TIME FRAME. IF STORMS HAVE ALREADY CONGEALED INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/COMPLEX BY THEN, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE EASTERN CWA. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE (A BIG IF, SINCE BULK SHEAR IS STILL MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS) AS WE APPROACH SUNSET, THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE. 12Z NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG 0-1 KM EHI FOR WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS AFTER 7 PM, BUT THE TORNADO RISK WILL ONLY BE REALIZED IF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND AVOID DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE.60 MPH). HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL (HAIL 2"+/TORNADOES)."

This is a great post and something I agree with wholeheartedly. Just yesterday we had people cancelling their trips and the season, etc while folks were out chasing beautiful isolated supercells in Western KS. It really puts it into perspective - no matter how hard we try to search for classic setups with rolling, open troughs and massive low level jets, there will still be these days and events embedded within marginal or even “bad” patterns.

I’m encouraged for late May despite some of the pessimism. After going off the rails for a few days, models are starting to swing back toward ejecting the E Pac trough into the Plains. It’s the high plains as of now, but you won’t find me complaining about the now. The GEFS, CFS and ECMWF EPS have all turned toward this idea in the past 24 hours. At the very least, this increases the chances of seeing something of significance during the late May to early June time frame.

 

[Jeremy Bower]

2018 will be about finding the "diamond in the rough." Although any one setup can change this philosophy, it's probably going to be those sleeper days that gift the best storms. You're looking at a guy in eighteen years of storm chasing that has made it a habit of trying to find the "diamond in the rough" so to speak. Very seldom have I been given a "good" pattern when I've chased so I'm not making 2018 out to be more than just the norm for me. I know everyone is different but generally speaking I would encourage those individuals who have chase trips planned in the upcoming weeks to keep them. Some of my best days in terms of storm photography were in July 2014 (July 5 and July 7) and no other chasers present. I heard for weeks that I was crazy to chase during that time but it paid off. You just never know what atmospheric eye candy you may end observing. In the meantime, let's hope for an improved pattern, and for those out there between June 10 and June 15, I hope we meet in front of the atmosphere's next great display (maybe a tad too optimistic, we'll see).

 

[Andy Wehrle]

If most recent (14/00z) CFS is to be believed, at least modest potential for something in KS next Saturday, and then in SD/NE the following Wednesday.

*Of course, it also shows an area of SCP AOA 7 over KS for hour 24, 00z/15 (this evening) and based on today's outlook that doesn't actually translate to much.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

2018 will be about finding the "diamond in the rough."

Sorry, but repeating that mantra every spring this decade is getting old.