2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Matthew Holliday

To start off, you can click here to see what my thoughts are on this upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season.

If you read my outlook, you'll notice that I am expecting fewer named storms than most, but a very active season as far as hurricanes that will make a direct landfall on the US coast. However, I do want to set all of that aside to point out one thing to keep an eye on.

Looking at some of the latest SST anomalies, you'll notice that a cool tongue is working its way across the Gulf of Guinea. With the very hot Sahara Desert in North Africa and the cooler Gulf of Guinea, this could be a factor that could make the tropical waves stronger when they come off the African Coast. Although I expect other factors to come into play as we progress farther into the season that will prohibit a high number of named storms, the cooler Gulf of Guinea is definitely something to watch. Any thoughts??? -Matthew Holliday -@BMattHolliday

anomnight.6.9.2011.gif
 
Analog years?

Why no 45-70% contour on your landfall potential map?

You said there wouldn't be an area of high pressure to block tropical activity from hitting the East Coast... what's the reasoning behind that? Simply based off of ENSO?
 
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