2024 Tropical Season Discussion

Post on the current TC season, not just for the Atlantic, but for the entire
Northern Hemisphere so far, along w/ some deeper musings.

Through August 12, the Northern Hemisphere is well below normal season-to-date
18 named storms so far (normal is 24 season-to-date), 6 hurricanes/typhoons
(normal is 12), and 2 major hurricanes/typhoons (normal is 6). Total
accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is only 52% of normal season-to-date.
The eastern Pacific is off to one of it slowest, if not slowest, starts to a season
on record. Why don't we hear about this? It is an extreme, just on the other end
of the atmospheric spectrum. If you are going to report on weather events, you
can't just omit things that deflate a particular narrative. And it have been observed
when the Atlantic is very active for TCs, the northern Pacific in its season is less
active than typical.

Yes, the Atlantic has been active, but only in some ways. Basically, Hurricane
Beryl is the only anomaly so far and accounts for almost all the high numbers
for the Atlantic season-to-date (named storm days, hurricane days, major
hurricane days, and ACE). Not saying Beryl was not a major anomaly,
but one storm does not reflect the entire season or season-to-date
in the larger climatology picture.

For instance, take the most active Atlantic hurricane season overall, 2005.
Through August 12, we already had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major
hurricanes (one strong Cat 4 and a Cat 5). This blows away (no pun intended!)
the 2024 season-to-date. Since we have the warmest Atlantic ocean temps on
record, and conditions in the atmosphere are said to be so favorable, where is
this hyperactivity for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic?? Ernesto's disturbance began
in the eastern tropical Atlantic, why did it take until getting close to the Lesser Antilles
for it to become a TC? Given the said very favorable overall conditions that does not
jibe well. Why didn't Debby undergo rapid intensification in the well above avg
GOMEX water temps before making landfall in the FL Panhandle?

2005 was a true hyperactive Atlantic season, not only total, but it started early and
never stopped, w/ active named storms most days July-Oct. We are not seeing that all
all in 2024.

Now, it is still early overall, but a couple things on that. 1) All forecasts are
going for 20+ named storms in the Atlantic this season, and two have 25+
w/ one 33 and 2), none of the global models show any tropical storm or
hurricane development in the Atlantic the next 10 days, which brings us to 8/26.
We have 5 named storms so far. Although 15 more named storms after 8/26
has happened before, and will get us to 20 for the season, 20 or more named
storms for the true hyperactive forecasts (25+), that's going to be tough. Not
saying it can't happen, but the Atlantic only has so much room and it actually
can get too "crowded" w/ storms at times (happened in 2023 and other years).
TCs need room around them to develop and esp. to get intense, otherwise, they
will inhibit each other's full potential. So even though you can have 4 named
storms at once, that tends to be the limit based on past very active seasons. And
even in the most active seasons, there are cycles (MJO) where conditions overall
wane at times for tropical cyclone development in the entire Atlantic, so it can't
be full throttle to the max all the time in a season (2005 and a few other seasons
going back to 1851 are close).

So I have presented the hard facts above. What am I getting at? As much as
it may be portrayed this way these days and sounds counter-intuitive, the
atmosphere and climate are *not* linear. In a global sense, avg mean temps
warmer does not necessarily mean all storms and other impactful weather get
worse. Some things get better/less common or intense. Now, one can debate
the balance of that plus/minus here, but that's a different issue. I am talking
about the all too often A+B=C ideology. The global system is about as far as
you can get from that, and I get it, things need to be simplified and worded for
general communication to the public, but some things simply can't be summed
up in a few words or pithy quips or statements! That's the nature of many
sciences, like it or not.

Going down to a more localized level -- strong El Nino in 2023. Typically,
strong El Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity big time. 2023 though
bucked this and was quite active (a record for strong El Nino present). Now,
in 2024, we have La Nina, and this typically favors active Atlantic hurricane
seasons. Given the non-linear nature of the atmosphere, and a wildcard we have
not experienced in the modern era w/ an excess of water vapor present in the
stratopshere since 2022 from the very large Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption,
who is to say this can't work in reverse, meaning despite La Nina, the Atlantic
ends up not as active as expected? This is on top of record warm ocean temps
in the Atlantic, which *should* mean hyperactivity (some going for the biggest
season on record). Yet go back what I said above w/ the Atlantic hurricane
season so far and how it compares to other seasons. It does not fit what
has been forecast or said (hyped) so far. Long way to go still, but food for
thought.

The Atlantic I think still will end up an above normal year, but there is valid
concern IMHO it may not live up to its hype or hyperactivity. Just b/c past
history, our knowledge, and weather/climate models say this *should*
happen, does not mean it will all the time. Again, the non-linear nature of the
atmosphere, and a limited, very reliable and detailed data on the
weather/climate as to what can happen, says that things we think can not or
should not happen, can and will, and there is nothing saying we can't be
totally off or completely wrong in what we think for some things.

There is a saying, "the more you know, the more you realize you *don't* know!"
and almost all of us have sensed this or had an epiphany at one time or another
in our lives! This is a good thing overall, and it motivates us to push forward and
learn more, and not rest on our laurels.

I'll say again though, that does not mean the current Atlantic hurricane season
will not be very active, and of course, does not mean we won't get one or more
major hurricane landfalls that are very high impact, but I am looking at the
grander picture here, as in what we have forecasted and expect vs. what
actually has happened so far/happens. Sure, this may not grab headlines
or is too pedantic, but it is not something that should be ignored or
discarded b/c it isn't "liked" or "popular."
 
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Saharan dust plays a much larger part in determining Atlantic hurricane season activity than a lot of forecasters want to admit. I rarely see it mentioned in any forecast discussion. Not a single Atlantic disturbance has formed in the presence of heavy dust, which has been occurring at records levels this year. Both Beryl and Ernesto formed outside the dust zones. I still believe the season will go basaltic at some point... as there is a lot of time left in the peak period.

www.foxweather.com

Saharan dust reaches stunning levels in Atlantic. Here's what that means for hurricane season

First, Europe that was socked in by record levels of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa. The Atlantic appears to have now taken the lead, with dust levels not seen in years across parts of the basin.
www.foxweather.com www.foxweather.com
 
That is an excellent point, and not something that can be ignored b/c it dictates TC development and intensity in the MDR (main develop region) the Atlantic, and these dust areas often get into the Caribbean and sometimes even into the GOMEX.

Last year, the dust outbreaks were very strong, and continued in mid-August, well past their July typical peak. This shut down much of the tropical Atlantic until mid-August.

So one of many questions that need to be asked and more study on, "how will African dust outbreaks/SALs change in the future?" Other questions -- how will the Hadley Cell circulation change? The mean position of the ITCZ? The strength of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ)? Precipitation in the Sahel region of Africa? Frequency of TUTTs (tropical upper-tropospheric troughs)? All these phenomena modulate and impact TC activity in the Atlantic, and they all interact w/ each other in various linear and nonlinear ways. This is why just focusing on ocean temps is flawed.
 
I do not believe we should count the Q1 tropical storm as part of the 2024 hurricane season's forecast. Something that has already occurred cannot be "forecast."

Both Boris and Warren make some excellent points.

So, we are at 4 which is nothing unusual for the 16th of August. I posted this piece on my blog 11 hours ago: www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/2024/08/2024-hurricane-season-so-far.html

Boris is correct that there's nothing else out there through the 23rd of August. As the interesting graph at my post shows, it is quite unlikely that we'll hit some of the higher seasonal forecasts.
 
Warren Faidley said:
Indications are that 2024 could be a very active tropical season, given record high Atlantic and Gulf water temperatures, along with relaxed westerlies.

I prey my existing pursuit budget is adequate to cover multiple deployments.

I'm also hoping this season will not produce the dreaded "Black Swan" event, something we discuss every year the Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre. A "Black Swan" event is a disaster of such magnitude, it overwhelms the entire US response system and devastates infrastructure to the point of total failure. For example, a Category 5 annihilating the Houston or Miami area then slowly moving inland causing catastrophic flooding.

It's going to be an interesting year.
Click to expand...
Living in Florida, I am concerned that the hot water temperatures will cause super intensifications. While high end wind gusts, and embedded QLCS Tornadic cells are the immediate worry. The low lying landscape, ensure flooding will occur.

As for chasing, my thoughts are to bunker down and watch Reed Timmer get blow to Hell! LOL
 
Hi Boris - for my own understanding, how does this…
Boris Konon said:
a wildcard we have
not experienced in the modern era w/ an excess of water vapor present in the
stratopshere since 2022 from the very large Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption,
Click to expand...
… reconcile with your earlier post about lower RH around Ernesto? Is it just a localized difference?
 
James, just a quick reminder that the troposphere's where the weather occurs, characterized by areas of temperatures decreasing with height. The stratosphere exhibits warming conditions with height and lies above the troposphere. So, two different areas and concepts.
 
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JamesCaruso said:
Hi Boris - for my own understanding, how does this…

… reconcile with your earlier post about lower RH around Ernesto? Is it just a localized difference?
Click to expand...
It doesn't. What is going on with Ernesto is on the synoptic scale and short time frames (days).

The excess water vapor in the stratosphere from the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption in early 2022 has impacted things on a global scale. How much and to what extent, that is still being determined, but what is almost certain it is non-trivial.

Water vapor has an enormous heat capacity, and sticking that much into a layer that is normally very dry just above the troposphere will have some temporary impacts. And unlike high amounts of SO2 ejected into the stratosphere from other big volcanic eruptions (Pinatubo in 1991 is a good example) that tends to cool the globe for 1-3 years after, preliminary studies has indicated this excess water vapor in the stratosphere has resulted in a spike in warming globally. It has been noted Earth's albedo has dropped quite a bit in the last 2 years, so this means less incoming solar radiation has been reflected back into space, hence the added warming. And this excess water vapor is not likely to be completely worked out of the stratosphere until the end of the decade.

So this is uncharted territory in the modern age. We have never on record have had an eruption that ejected this much water vapor into the stratosphere, so we don't know its full effects yet, and it will take time. How much warming from this will ultimately result, and when will this water vapor effect wane to insignificant it is not known yet, but it is definitely worth studying and can tell us a lot about what different gases and aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere can do.

Contrary to popular belief, water vapor is by *far* the most common greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and modulates/controls the global temp the most, but how it does it is complex. You have water in all 3 phases simultaneously across the Earth, and phase changes back and forth rapidly, which is an enormous amount of heat given off and absorbed. And its greenhouse effect is not 1-2-3. You can get negative/neutral feedback easily, in the form of more water vapor in the atmosphere due to warmer mean temps, which leads to cooler max temps during the day, and warmer min temps at night and/or more clouds that will increase the albedo overall globally, leading to less surface heating, and more precipitation, which can act in part to cool things.

I say the above paragraph that is obvious to many b/c even though the excess water vapor is trapped in the stratosphere, what goes on in the stratosphere, esp. its temp, does affect the troposphere in various ways, which in turn can affect global patterns and sensible weather.

I look at the Hunga-Tonga eruption as a natural experiment for us, as it allows us to observe a major anomaly we have never observed before, and gives us great opportunities to learn more about the atmosphere that we otherwise would not have had.
 
I noticed a couple of people unfortunately drowned in rip currents Friday morning at Hilton Head Island, SC.
These fatalities occurred despite advance forecasts of high surf, 3-4 feet, & strong rip tides in relation to off-shore Ernesto.
If one falls in or you're swimming, I'm told let the current take you out, swim parallel to the shore, then swim back in.
Easier said than done, getting out of the flow? Or better yet, don't get too close to the water. 🤔
 
Even though we've been in ENSO neutral conditions, a closer look, particularly at the first half of August shows:
The atmospheric side of ENSO, the Southern Oscillation, exhibited less-than-perfect coupling with the cooling ocean.
The SO Index plunged negative, appearing nostalgic for the days of El Niño (anthropomorphizing.)
A fly in the ointment of prediction? (Figure: Queensland, Australia Bureau of Meteorology)
Screenshot 2024-08-19 at 5.10.31 PM.jpeg
 
Something you may have never seen before in the shank of the hurricane season, an Atlantic cold pool straddling the equator.
While south of any parade of atmospheric waves off the west coast of Africa, it's ~ a couple degrees F below a climatological average.
This oceanic event weakens the atmospheric Hadley cell. Broadcast meteorologist at Jacksonville, FL Channel 4 showed this graphic last week.Screenshot 2024-08-26 at 4.11.15 PM.jpeg
 
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There are a number of negative factors this year. Dust, shear, cold pools and now, African climatology. Most of the lows are forming north of 15 degrees off the African coast, if they form at all. This generally produces fish storms. I've already seen a few discussions about weather patterns shifting in western Africa. I'm still betting we will see at least one Yucatan / Caribbean monster storm move into the Gulf this year.
 
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