2024 Tropical Season Discussion

[William Monfredo]

The extremely simplistic approach to climate forecasting (temperature changes only) will only stop when some of the practitioners are shamed into it (Mike Smith.)

The above probably won't happen. Such lameness occurs when people forget the basics. What would they say if reminded:
Fundamentally, the earth's striving in a dynamic equilibrium, a balance it can never attain...
by redistributing heat energy from the tropics, characterized by a surplus, to poleward locales, featuring a deficit of energy.
It's done horizontally by sensible heat and vertically through latent heat of condensation by hurricanes; that's what they do well.
Now, the temperature gradient or differences between equator & pole are less, so...not as much impetus or need to balance the earth system.
So, less hurricanes occur, not more. Do they wear blinders; did they not get the memo?

 

[Jamie H]

This might be of interest, as it talks about a shift this year in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone meaning storms coming out of Africa are doing so over less favourable waters.

Unusual Weather Alert: 1000-year Rainfall event in the Sahara Desert

A rare rainfall event is starting in the Sahara desert, signaling a potential change in the Earth's weather system.

www.severe-weather.eu

 

[Boris Konon]

This might be of interest, as it talks about a shift this year in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone meaning storms coming out of Africa are doing so over less favourable waters.

Unusual Weather Alert: 1000-year Rainfall event in the Sahara Desert

A rare rainfall event is starting in the Sahara desert, signaling a potential change in the Earth's weather system.

www.severe-weather.eu

Funny you mentioned this. This pattern giving the Sahara significant rainfall is likely why the Atlantic has been largely
shut down so far. See below post I did on another group yesterday.

-----

So many are wondering, "where are all the hurricanes in the Atlantic?"
This is a valid question, and given all the hyperactive forecasts, a serious
one.

Here's what we have that says it should be very active now for hurricanes
in the Atlantic.

1) Record sea surface temps anomalies/oceanic heat content
2) Reduced vertical wind shear
3) Northward shifted and enhanced African monsoon
4) Neutral ENSO, trending towards La Nina.

So large-scale factors are favorable . However, one small detail is off,
which seems to explains things -- the African monsoon trough, which
supplies the bread and butter of disturbances/waves that eventually
develop into TCs in the Atlantic, has been *too* far N. This puts its
axis into the Sahara Desert. So even though rainfall is above avg in
the Sahara Desert, this area is still *far* too dry for robust MCSs/MCCs
to develop, which end up moving off the west African coast, and
provide the initial seeds for TC development.

Look at the graphic attached. It shows the zonal low-level wind
anomalies for August in the Atlantic, and the sharp gradient is the
axis of the monsoon trough (the black dashed line). The white line
is the ideal position of the monsoon trough needed for MCSs/MCCs
over the sub-Saharan region and ern Atlantic that eventually form into
TCs.

So the monsoon trough is a couple hundred miles too far N, and that's
all it has taken to squash overall TC activity big time, w/ only 5 named
storms so far, far below the hyperactivity expected.

It seems conditions two months ago were ideal, and we got record
Hurricane Beryl, but a single intense hurricane does not make a big
season, or mean what we expected throughout the season occurred!

We are now in the most climatologically active part of the hurricane
season, and nada, and not much forecast at all in the next week.

Just looking at the operational GFS/ECMWF/GDPS the last 5 days, they are not
consistent. One run has a hurricane a 5-8 days out, then the next run loses
it, then it comes back, and loses it again next run. It's been like this for all 3
models.

I know ensembles are better, however, we are taking within 10 days, and from
my empirical observations following the operational runs and TC development, if
the pattern is truly favorable, they will show good consistency on developing a
particular disturbance(s) within 10 days, or at least one model will. The GFS does
this most often, and still seems to have a problem being too aggressive day 7 and
beyond, but even this model is lacking given its bias in the longer ranges. If the
GFS is this "tame," given its TC bias, what does that say about the synoptic
environment as a whole in the Atlantic? These global models must be detecting
something that is putting the brakes on things?!

The current wave now in the Caribbean that NHC has been tracking for the last 5
days, it has stayed at 0/40 chance of development? It is the *peak* of the season,
and this would be lame in a normal season forecasted, but given the hyperactive
forecasts?!

This doesn't mean the season is over w/ no major hurricanes (2020
was back-ended with a lot of major hurricanes), but shutting down
the prime time of the season usually severely limits total seasonal
activity, which is what matters in the end. I don't see how now the
forecasts for 20-25+ named storms that all are going for are going to
verify.

And the record high Atlantic ocean temps, being in record territory, this
may be actually providing a negative feedback, *detrimental* to TC
formation. How?, a warm ocean is going warm the atmosphere above
it, and air warms faster and easier than water. A "hotter" atmosphere is
often not favorable for widespread deep convection b/c warm temps at
mid-levels inhibit CU growth. In addition, the warmer atmosphere
becomes drier, and this can promote even more warming (i.e. dry air heats
up easier than moist air), strengthening the capping temp inversion aloft,
which suppresses deep convective development further. See the negative
feedback here? Not intuitive and goes against the typical human thought
process correlation = causation directly.

Ocean temps are only one part of the equation for TCs. What goes on the
atmosphere is very important. These record high Atlantic ocean temps we
have never witnessed in the modern age are apparently or may be a range
that actually inhibits tropical cyclone formation?! Imagine that!

(end of original post)
-----

This is why treating the atmosphere linearly and "dumbing complex processes down" to catchy
quips and statements is severely flawed, and really an insult to the the field of meteorology, and all
sciences for that matter. Things do not work in a 1-2-3 simple correlation = causation way in
something as complex as the Earth's system and how it responds to warming. Positive and
negatives feedbacks are many, and this makes the line "warming ocean temps due to climate
change will make all tropical cyclones worse everywhere across-the-board" vapid and
disingenuous. As said above, ocean temps are only one part of the equation for TC genesis
and maintenance.

In the current season's case, we can't even get decent disturbances off Africa that eventually
develop into TCs! So the "seeds" of TCs are taken out. All the warm ocean and favorable
atmospheric conditions mean nothing you can't get a TC to form in the first place to take
advantage such conditions!

It goes further than the classic long-tracked Cabo Verde hurricanes being absent. Many tropical
waves don't develop until later in the Caribbean, GOMEX, or western Atlantic, so this explains
in part why even these areas are so quiet. And going even further, many tropical waves in the
Atlantic that never develop cross Central America, and then develop into TCs in the EPAC, so this
explains in part why the EPAC has been below avg so far this season.

So you see how *one* smaller-scale phenomena (the position of the monsoon trough) has huge
downstream impacts, despite the overall pattern favorable for Atlantic TCs, and this one of
many examples that we have seen that show how complex things are and we are far from having
both normal climate variances and climate change "all figured out" and "the science is settled."
Empirical observations override what models "say" and forecast.

More people should be doing this (below emoji).

 

[William Monfredo]

I was wondering about those tropical, oceanic lapse-rates this morning. Where can one find that information or a good sounding over the ocean?

 

[Boris Konon]

I was wondering about those tropical, oceanic lapse-rates this morning. Where can one find that information or a good sounding over the ocean?

Models: GFS - Pivotal Weather

View GFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.

www.pivotalweather.com

Left click on anywhere, and many models will give you a full sounding.

 

[William Monfredo]

Empirical observations override what models "say" and forecast. - Boris Konon

Along these lines, too, we've seen forecasters run into big headaches when they base specific & bust-able predictions on future model-runs of other unique phenomenon also subject to busting. This produces multiplicative effects with increased potential for failure.
So, when the stratospheric warming, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Madden-Julien Oscillation or whatever else doesn't "cooperate,"
it's like building on faulty, crumbly foundations, and eventually the forecasts come tumbling down.

 

[John Farley]

I think this thread has been very interesting and informative over the past couple weeks, and I agree with the great majority of what has been said. Occasionally, though, things like the following are mixed in with otherwise very informative posts:

"quips and statements that politicians and global elites can lecture us on. And I think a significant part of the scientific community has fallen prey to the social/economic pressures of this -- comply/adhere or you will be made a pariah and lose your support/funding."

I would just like to point out a couple things. First, we DO know that the earth is getting warmer. The exact mix of reasons why we do not know, and it is likely some combination of human and natural factors contributing. Second, some of the predictions of a busy TC season have come from organizations with a history of questioning global warming, so it is not just those who agree with predominant viewpoint who have been wrong about this hurricane season (so far, at least). I remember the founder of the hurricane program at Colorado State, Dr. Bill Gray (who has since passed) telling the National Storm Chaser Convention around 15 years ago that he expected the world to become cooler in the coming decade. Of course, that did not happen. To my knowledge, the hurricane prediction program at CSU did not lose funding because of that. And their hurricane forecast for this year was similarly high to those of other organizaitons.

I think a better analogy to understand what is going on with this year's missed forecasts can be seen on those "big" chase days we all get hyped up about because one or more parameters are off the roof, but then the day turns out to be a bust because of other factors that were largely overlooked. I am as guilty of getting excited over these days as anyone. Yes, one or two things can be extremely favorable, but if there are other factors that get in the way, our anticipated big chase day turns out to be a disappointment. It certainly happened multiple times this year, including to me. So to go back to the topic, yes, the atmosphere and the oceans are warmer this year, which is favorable for TCs, including strong ones. But if other factors, such as an unusual position of the African monsoon moisture as discussed in other posts above, get in the way, the forecast may bust, just like some of our chase forecasts do. I think rather than talking about alleged pressures to accept a reality of climate change, it makes more sense to acknowledge that climate change is taking us into new territory with which we are unfamiliar (like the warming in the Mediterranean, for example), and that for that reason, no matter how real climate change may be, we do not understand its overall effects very well yet. Some things seem fairly clear, like greater extremes of heat and drought but also of heavy precipitation events, but there is a whole lot else that we do not understand and may have a hard time doing so, since there are a lot of things going on that we have not previously experienced.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Not to speak for Boris, but I interpreted his larger point (looking at all his posts, not just the one excerpt above) to be that:
-weather and climate are very complex systems
-there are variables not being adequately represented in predictive modeling
-therefore some intellectual humility is in order when making predictions or taking actions that could have unintended consequences

I think these are important lessons in every field. For example, faulty economic models that drive investment decisions, tax and monetary policies, etc. It’s actually an area that has interested me ever since I read The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb. A key takeaway from that book is that we fool ourselves into over-confidence based on models that fail to address tail risks and unknown unknowns, sometimes with catastrophic results. There’s a lesson in there even just for my own job, in which I am responsible for budgets and projections at my employer.

Whatever side of the climate change debate one is on, it seems clear that there is one predominant mainstream narrative that is over-simplified and therefore can become misleading. The media is guilty of confirmation bias and seems to want to say “I told you so” at every opportunity - relative to the subject of this thread, the media’s coverage of the initial hurricane forecast and the early emergence of major Hurricane Beryl were examples of that. I have seen things as simple as Twisters movie reviews contain references to “storms getting worse,” even though we haven’t had an EF-5 tornado for 11 years. That type of thing should frustrate all of us that have a more-sophisticated understanding of the subject.

 

[Mike Smith]

I've appreciated the last few posts a great deal, thank you.

Please allow me to highly recommend these two succinct essays from Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr.

• What the IPCC Actually Says About Extreme Weather
• When the Climate Was Perfect

The title of the latter item is intended to be ironic.

 

[John Farley]

Not to speak for Boris, but I interpreted his larger point (looking at all his posts, not just the one excerpt above) to be that:
-weather and climate are very complex systems
-there are variables not being adequately represented in predictive modeling
-therefore some intellectual humility is in order when making predictions or taking actions that could have unintended consequences

That is exactly why I said I agreed with the vast majority of what had been posted recently in this thread.

 

[William Monfredo]

I've scratched my head today truly wondering when the last time was that I've seen such a lack of Atlantic tropical cyclones.
I touched on Mike's blog that provided an answer via Philip Klotzbach with respect to the period after Ernesto.
"The last time that the Atlantic had no named storm August 13 - September 3 was 1968."
As the quiet period continues with low chances for the next week, color me AMAZED .

 

[William Monfredo]

How far into September without another tropical storm do we have to go to beat 1968 in this season of tropical limbo?
I looked at Monthly Weather Review's March 1969 recap of the 1968 hurricane season to find out (Vol. 97, no.3, p. 235.)
After an August 1968 Hurricane Dolly, NHC confirmed a Tropical Storm Edna on September 15. See below.
So, that's the benchmark. Watching the nothingness continues.

 

[Boris Konon]

Not to speak for Boris, but I interpreted his larger point (looking at all his posts, not just the one excerpt above) to be that:
-weather and climate are very complex systems
-there are variables not being adequately represented in predictive modeling
-therefore some intellectual humility is in order when making predictions or taking actions that could have unintended consequences

I think these are important lessons in every field. For example, faulty economic models that drive investment decisions, tax and monetary policies, etc. It’s actually an area that has interested me ever since I read The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb. A key takeaway from that book is that we fool ourselves into over-confidence based on models that fail to address tail risks and unknown unknowns, sometimes with catastrophic results. There’s a lesson in there even just for my own job, in which I am responsible for budgets and projections at my employer.

Whatever side of the climate change debate one is on, it seems clear that there is one predominant mainstream narrative that is over-simplified and therefore can become misleading. The media is guilty of confirmation bias and seems to want to say “I told you so” at every opportunity - relative to the subject of this thread, the media’s coverage of the initial hurricane forecast and the early emergence of major Hurricane Beryl were examples of that. I have seen things as simple as Twisters movie reviews contain references to “storms getting worse,” even though we haven’t had an EF-5 tornado for 11 years. That type of thing should frustrate all of us that have a more-sophisticated understanding of the subject.

You mentioned other complex systems like economic models. We on this group know most about meteorology, and it is very
easy to spot BS and call out people, never mind spot bad/false information concerning this field. Now, take this *one* field and its
shortcomings in knowledge and application we see all the time from many who just are on the outside looking in or not versed, and extrapolate that over all other fields out there. Ho-ly cow, You can only image the misinformation out there that most of us would not have any idea of what is true, half-true, or plain lies, among other things, simply b/c that is not our fields of expertise! It certainly makes you wonder, and gives reason to be skeptical and apply critical thinking to the max, esp. these days.

Several years ago, I saw a pithy statement that sounds a bit simplistic, but hits the mark:

You don't know what you don't know!

So when we are told or lectured about what is true or not, esp. in these poliarized times, you have to be *very* careful.

Getting back to complex systems, I read recently about our electric grids. Wow, they are far more intricate and
precarious that I would have thought. Why wouldn't they be, since the are expansive and think how demand alone cycles
up and down, and what they entail to operate efficiently. One thing that stood out is how they are not simply "plug
and play" when it comes to hooking up or attaching additional power sources, esp. those that are newer and
attempting to ramp up (wind and solar).

So I am constantly thinking to myself when somehting is sold to us in a certain way, whether that be a weather,
economic, or any future forecast, what is *not* being told to us or left out that may change the entire context of
things?

 

[Boris Konon]

Noticed something today with 500 mb temps in the Atlantic tropics, it is usually warm at this level. See 05/18z ECMWF 500 temp analysis below.

A typical tropical atmosphere will have 500 temps -5 to -7 C. The only time you will see it warmer is a strong SAL or the inner core of a TC. So temps as warm as -1 C just "there?" That's significant. And the warmth goes all the way into the EPAC as well.

Also, look at where the temps in the MDR are warmest, it's near the base of a trough? That seems counterintuitive b/c warmest temps aloft are typically associated w/ ridging!

Screenshot of a X post from 9/1 attached. Up to 4 sigmas above avg 700 temp in the MDR? Ugh. Not much better in the Caribbean or GOMEX.

This is almost certainly a factor in suppressing TC development, b/c you can't even get any deep convection to get the process started!

I think this is an excellent example about how "warmer does not always mean worse wx." Ever notice every impact of a warmer globe is universally negative in MSM? That's a ridiculous notion to talk in absolutes like that, never mind it flies in the face of the reality of how the Earth's system works, and 50+ years of gloom and doom predictions, the vast majority which have not come to pass.

One could hypothesize that what is happening now is what is going to happen in the tropics and TC activity as the globe warms. Why not? It is already has happened in the Atlantic and we have seen the sensible wx results. Also, we have a spike in global temps since 2023, likely due to the Jan 2022 Hunga-Tonga eruption and the large amount of WV ejected into the stratosphere, which is estimated to have given 10 years of linear, gradual CO2 warming in 2 years. So this could be thought of as a preview to come? Not an unreasonable hypothesis. At the very least, this warrants much study and research.

I can put it this way, if somehow they could connect the excess WV in the stratosphere to an increase in TC activity, they would be all over it and you would see hundreds of articles about it, even though it is just a hypothesis. So when a hypothesis deflates the catastrophic global warming narrative, why doesn't that get even modest attention? Ever notice that? It is severely biased toward everything negative. Don't get me wrong, there are negatives w/ warming, but to ignore the positives completely and act like the world will end as we know it reeks more of an agenda/ideology than anything else.

 

[William Monfredo]

What a difference a month makes. Oh, wait a minute....it doesn't ! At least not yet. Besides me getting sarcastic about low chances for development due to hostile conditions, eventually the Gulf of Mexico could show us something, But, that would be more than a week out. And then you're dealing with what was alluded to here, the incredible appearing and disappearing Category Two storm from model run to run.