12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Jesse Risley]

To answer Justin's question, it still looks like the track will be too far west for substantial snow in the Sullivan, MO area, much less STL, but given the erratic performance of the models with this storm and the complexity of the storm, I suppose there is always an outside chance. It will be interesting to see what this evenings model runs produce. But most likely, the heavier snow will be well to the west of those areas.

In their AFD, DVN noted that the recent model runs were being impacted due to some missing upper air observation data that's having an impact on the model initialization average. I wouldn't be surprised to see the final track end up a bit further south than currently forecast.

 

[Chris Sokol]

alright. can we just get this storm over with? the dodge city nws just went from 2-4 inches 90% snow tonight and tomorrow to 20% both periods with little or no accumulation. however 55 miles ese of me (me being in Coldwater, ks) across the ok line calling for up to 7". winter storm warning 15 miles south of me and ddc nws has dropped all winter weather headlines. after 3 days of blizzard watch..........nothing. i suppose with this rediculous system anything is possible at this point.

Which I still fail to understand completely, when you have this:

5 Miles SE Leoti KS: Snow: 100% today/90% tonight
3 Miles SSE Scott City KS: 20% today/20% tonight

These are bordering counties, with Leoti to the west.

 

[Chris Heater]

This is an interesting excerpt from the Quad Cities disco

MODEL INITIALIZATION AVERAGE WITH MISSING NW MEXICO UPPER
AIR OBS IMPACTING QUALITY OF THESE RUNS. ALL NOWCAST TOOLS AND
ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST SW CONUS SYSTEM STRONGER...SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Chris that is interesting...

To some of the newer people following this thread: Learn where the lines are dividing CWA among various NWS offices. It will help you answer some of your own questions regarding forecast differences. Crossing a county or state line may move you into the area of another office. That means while two points may be close together on a map, they may have forecasts created by two different offices with different opinions/interpretations. Sometimes you will see mention of collaboration between WFOs, but not always. Also, if you are thinking "why not this...", read the AFD (forecast discussion) from the office you are questioning. It will often times show that while they may have considered what you are thinking, they ultimately decided on something else due to xyz. It may also help you understand a little better the behind the scenes decision making.

Regarding the frustration w/ forecast changes in this storm: Yes, there have been a lot of changes midstream from several WFOs. Yes, this has been a hard storm to forecast mesoscale details this far out. Ultimately, the mets are wanting to provide ample warning to the public while being as specific as possible. Two days ago, a blizzard watch for your area was probably a good idea. As details emerge, things may have shifted north/south/east/west of you and now you can be taken out of the watch. That's how it goes.

To keep this germane to the thread: I would not doubt seeing even more model changes on the next run slowing the storm down and possibly moving it further south. As John Farley noted, snowfall totals are coming in higher than forecast as things get rolling in NM. Tulsa and OUN have raised forecast totals thru the day.

On another note, it's 62 degrees here at my office near the KS/MO/OK junction. I am sitting outside and enjoying it while it lasts!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

This jumble of models can sometimes be confusing for those who don't have the time to track nearly every model nearly all the time. As such, I'll point out this useful discussion from the HPC -> Model Diagnostic Discussion <- for those who are interested. The discussion, issued twice daily if I remember correctly, focuses on model differences and similarities, and it usually walks through which model(s) is (are) preferred by the HPC and for what reasons. In this particular case, it provides a sort of "overview" of differences and similarities on the upcoming winter storm.

In addition, another useful product is the Senior Duty Meteorologist NWS Administrative Message. The short products include listings of which upper air observations were not included by particular model runs (NAM and/or GFS), and the messages mention any particular problems encountered by the model (in terms of if the model started on late or was late, etc.). Specific to today's 12z model runs:

NO 12Z MEXICAN REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM. OTHER
THAN THAT...DATA COVERAGE WAS GOOD AND INCLUDED...13 AK/31
CANADIAN/69 CONUS AND 9 CARIBBEAN REPORTS IN TIME FOR THE
NAM START. THE 12Z CYCLE STARTED EXACTLY ON TIME.

12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...

PASY/70414 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM.
GSO/72317 - GROUND EQ FAILURE...10142.
PBZ/72520 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM.
XKF/78016 - DELETED TEMPS 794-777...WET BULB EFFECTED.

--> http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable2.php?pil=ADM&sid=NFD&date=2009-12-23%2013:25:41

12Z NCEP MODEL CYCLE IS RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND IS ON TIME.

12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...

PASY/70414 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM. FULL REPORT IN
FOR THE GFS.
PBZ/72520 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM. FULL REPORT IN
FOR THE GFS.
CAR/72712 - TTAA NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM OR GFS.

--> http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable2.php?pil=ADM&sid=NFD&date=2009-12-23 14:48:11

 

[Steve Miller]

For anyone who is keeping up via live streams, ChaserTV has 9 active feeds for your viewing pleasure: http://chasertv.com/index.php?option=com_wrapper&view=wrapper&Itemid=111

 

[Andrew Francis]

Not sure what to say. Finally posted WSWarnings here over central OK, but I am not sure exactly where this thing is going to dump the snow... (like anyone does)

It seems the temperatures have fallen alot quicker than forecasted as we are sitting at around 40 degrees, and falling as night comes upon us.

Of course the track is going to be the real determinate here, it looks like the Low is approaching central-eastern NM right now and is headed due east. Heavy precip breaking out all over Western TX. I wouldn't be surprised to see some light icing before the actual snowfall here in OK, if snow falls at all. I am still leery about the new 4-8 " forecasted for OKC, I think it is going to have to perfectly set up that heavy snow band as the low slides northward.

It seems to have thought that, the heavy band would set up in NE OK for the last couple days, then it was C OK, now it seems maybe even W/SW OK could get that heavy band. It is almost like it is shifting diagonally across the state and just toying with the minds of all Oklahomans on who is going to get the big snowfall!

I am somewhat worrisome about temperatures not being cold enough early on as the precip shield takes shape in the late night/early morning hours tonight.


cross your fingers Central OK'rs!

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Well I do believe the surface low is a bit more sw of the projected path. How will this impact NC OK's snow totals? Ha NW and NC looks like they might not even get snow... although all the predictions are 4-8". Bye bye snow haha. Also we are a good 5 degrees below the projected temperature also... I am not worried about it being too warm. I am just kinda wondering where these band are gonna form and if you were to ask me, Im thinkin SW'OK to C'OK to NE'OK will see a bit of the white stuff... I think the woodward area is outta it. Just an uneducated guess though.

Looked at the 18z GFS and it begs to differ. Good snowfall totals =)

 

[Chris Heater]

I'm so freaking confused on which track to believe. Quad cities says one thing, Omaha says another. This storm is REALLY complex and it has me scratching my head. I think by Thursday we'll know for certain what is going on. Till then...I won't believe in a storm track

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Definitely a more southern track being depicted now by both the NAM and the GFS....extending trace snow amounts all the way down into the DFW metro by Thurs evening. SW OK looks to be in prime position for a heavy burst during the day tomorrow.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

From the Minneapolis 6:42 pm Nowcast from the NWS:

The heaviest snow bands have been producing an inch and a half an hour across south central Minnesota...from Kiester to St James... with snow flakes the size of Silver dollars.

It would nice if someone would post some video or stills of these giant flakes reflecting some bright source of night lighting.

There were flakes like this about an hour ago. Right now the snow is still falling heavily but not as big of flakes. I would say we already have gotten around 3 inches and the roads have become very poor (I was on a 55mph only able to go around 30mph just a short time ago)...

Here is what it currently looks like outside my home:

 

[Dean Baron]

Snow is just reaching us here in the Twin Cities. MPX saying 16-22 inches for us. Not sure if we'll see mixed precip here or not. We'll be pretty close. Planning on getting some video and pics tonight as those heavier bands work through.

 

[Robert Hettchen]

My x-wife is taking our 2 kids to OKC tomorrow morning from near Woodward. I am supposed to pick them up at 12 noon on Christmas day. And now OKC is expecting some of the worst of this storm. So it looks like I will be gearing up here in Coldwater, ks for the 4 hour drive to OKC Christmas morning. Depending on how bad it is I suppose will determine what I end up doing. I will wait to have Christmas with my children if the roads are beyond drivable. However, my modified 300 horsepower Audi A4 Quattro turbo is just sitting in the garage telling me that the trip would be no problem....

for those in the OKC metro I will be looking for your post to actual road/weather conditions.

here again is exactly what I was talking about. Just a hole for the ddc nws. completely surrounded by wsw and wwa. now an inch or less expected for their cwa http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/

 

[Andrew Francis]

My x-wife is taking our 2 kids to OKC tomorrow morning from near Woodward. I am supposed to pick them up at 12 noon on Christmas day. And now OKC is expecting some of the worst of this storm. So it looks like I will be gearing up here in Coldwater, ks for the 4 hour drive to OKC Christmas morning. Depending on how bad it is I suppose will determine what I end up doing. I will wait to have Christmas with my children if the roads are beyond drivable. However, my modified 300 horsepower Audi A4 Quattro turbo is just sitting in the garage telling me that the trip would be no problem....

for those in the OKC metro I will be looking for your post to actual road/weather conditions.

here again is exactly what I was talking about. Just a hole for the ddc nws. completely surrounded by wsw and wwa. now an inch or less expected for their cwa http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/

I am in Edmond, (just N of OKC), Next to I-35, I assume you will be taking this interstate. I will let you know how traffic is moving along as the storm progresses. Will be posting probably most of the day tomorow.

 

[rdale]

here again is exactly what I was talking about. Just a hole for the ddc nws. completely surrounded by wsw and wwa. now an inch or less expected for their cwa http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/

Take a look at the snow forecast in the graphical section - they aren't much different at all from their surrounding.