Jeff Miller
EF5
Mike was, I'm sure, referring to his tongue in cheek reference to Bermuda scrambling due to the insane eastward motion the NAM presented - therefore, Illinois would be WEST of the low. It was all tongue in cheek I believe 
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12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm
- Thread starter Joel Wright
- Start date
Andrew Francis
EF3
I am pretty sure Mike was joking, which is why he pointed out that Bermuda better be forecasting for this soon, because each model run seems to push the system further south and east.
So he was joking saying that the storm is going to end up east of him, thus putting him on the west side of the storm and not getting anything...
At least that is what I read.... lol
So he was joking saying that the storm is going to end up east of him, thus putting him on the west side of the storm and not getting anything...
At least that is what I read.... lol
Justin Griffith
UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
850 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
NEW 00Z NAM IS INTRIGUING AT BEST...AND DISTURBING AT LEAST...
WITH DEF ZONE QUITE A BIT FARTHER E INTO ERN MO THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS IS AN OUTLIER OR A TREND
OVERNIGHT AND ACT ACCORDINGLY. IF TRUE...COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
I'm still new to this so I have a hard time following what all you guys are saying, but I hope the NAM is correct and we get a few inches.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
850 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
NEW 00Z NAM IS INTRIGUING AT BEST...AND DISTURBING AT LEAST...
WITH DEF ZONE QUITE A BIT FARTHER E INTO ERN MO THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS IS AN OUTLIER OR A TREND
OVERNIGHT AND ACT ACCORDINGLY. IF TRUE...COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
I'm still new to this so I have a hard time following what all you guys are saying, but I hope the NAM is correct and we get a few inches.
Jeff Miller
EF5
ooz GFS just now starting to come in - and initial LOW placement? Near DFW. - spot on to what the 12z 18 hr had it at.
This should be an interesting run.
This should be an interesting run.
Chris Sokol
EF5
Well, Mike Morgan on Channel 4 here in OKC just was on...projected the low to move up the West OK/TX border, and drop snowfall amounts to not much in OKC and points N/NW. Also said that Dallas could be looking at a major snow event. Gotta love the media...
Chris Heater
EF3
I know most of you are quick to denounce the NAM but per latest pressure falls, it may not be so out of the question
EDIT: Meant to say per the latest pressure falls being further east, etc
EDIT: Meant to say per the latest pressure falls being further east, etc
Andrew Francis
EF3
Huh? How is he saying Dallas will have a major snow event if the low moves along the WEST OK/TX border? I would think that means the panhandle area?
Or is this what you meant by 'gotta love the media'?
I am confused. But I changed the TV to that channel to see what he says here in about 30 minutes... Sounds interesting lolz!
Chris Sokol
EF5
Hehe..that is EXACTLY what I meant. 
Michael O'Keeffe
The latest GFS pretty much sealed the deal for a major bust at least here in KC. However the RUC is still looking very nice but I have no idea how good it is with winter storms. Here is the latest update with snowfall totals at 0z Christmas.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_backup/.//+snowacc+am+48
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_backup/.//+snowacc+am+48
Joel Wright
EF5
The models are clearly having major issues with the complex phasing of the two storms. The models continue to delay the final ejection of the main storm, and since it ejects later it gives it a chance to get further east before the journey north/northwest.
Usually by now the models are all locked in on a solution. Right now they're still sort of playing catchup. It's possible tonight's 00z runs have the final solution, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are more adjustments with the 12z tomorrow. I would suspect by then they should have a pretty good grasp on what will really happen.
Usually by now the models are all locked in on a solution. Right now they're still sort of playing catchup. It's possible tonight's 00z runs have the final solution, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are more adjustments with the 12z tomorrow. I would suspect by then they should have a pretty good grasp on what will really happen.
Danny Neal
EF5
Above is report I submitted VIA SN. Some pretty good icing going on. Vegetation is glazed but roads and walkways are still decent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTHjU9E96hk video of event.
Andrew Francis
EF3
All of N TX just got covered in Heavy Snow Warnings after previously being under nothing or a travelers advisory.
I think some people in TX are going to wake up to a surprise in the morning.
All the local stations 10pm broadcasts shouted bust on OKC storm and they moved their 10+" totals in northern/central OK, to extreme south and southeast OK where previously they had a trace - 2"... *smacks forehead*
This low is sooo stubborn, it is just stuck on moving due EAST!
seriously WTF IS GOING ON!? lol
A storm system that finally tracks far enough south with cold air, and its actually TOO FAR SOUTH !?
Oklahoma just can't win...
I think some people in TX are going to wake up to a surprise in the morning.
All the local stations 10pm broadcasts shouted bust on OKC storm and they moved their 10+" totals in northern/central OK, to extreme south and southeast OK where previously they had a trace - 2"... *smacks forehead*
This low is sooo stubborn, it is just stuck on moving due EAST!
seriously WTF IS GOING ON!? lol
A storm system that finally tracks far enough south with cold air, and its actually TOO FAR SOUTH !?
Oklahoma just can't win...
rdale
EF5
It's a Winter Storm Warning for Snow & Blowing Snow, which is different. And TA's were killed by the NWS over a decade ago...
How much are you thinking they will get tonight? What I see leads me to think this would be more like a morning - afternoon type event. And even then, I'm not certain I see much accumulations (certainly not any 10"+ amounts.) NWS says they expect very little at all, it's more a blowing snow issue.
Jason Bolt
I don't see any heavy snow warnings in north TX. I do see winter storm warnings. If you read the text, they aren't even talking about any accumulation, just reduced visibliity due to blowing snow. Also, it doesn't seem OUN has followed suit on moving 10+ inch totals to SE OK. They are still showing 2-4 at Durant and Ardmore.
That being said, I'm just not getting a handle on these latest model runs. Are we looking now at the track of the low bringing snow to north TX and then moving it north through eastern OK and on north?
That being said, I'm just not getting a handle on these latest model runs. Are we looking now at the track of the low bringing snow to north TX and then moving it north through eastern OK and on north?
Michael O'Keeffe
I am starting to believe my RUC theory more and more as I watch that giant swath of snow in the TX Panhandle move N/NE instead of E/ENE towards Dallas. This is EXACTLY what the RUC is showing and it brings the surface low into NE Texas at 12z and then it begins to move north along the OK/AR border! I am beginning to believe this model as it tends to pick up on more subtle real time developments unlike the NAM and GFS. I may be right, I may be wrong but the RUC sure does look good at least for OK/KS.
