12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Robert Hettchen]

I am in Edmond, (just N of OKC), Next to I-35, I assume you will be taking this interstate. I will let you know how traffic is moving along as the storm progresses. Will be posting probably most of the day tomorow.

Thank you. and of course I will be on here seeing whats goin on. however I am not certain of the route i would take as I normally head south to woodward and take 270 down to I 40 and then over. I would assume they would try to keep 270 as clean as possible being on ofthe major highways through OK. Its an extra 50 miles to go east on 160 to wellington, ks and go down I 35. I know that 160 here in sc ks is not a highway you want to be on in severe winter weather but if the storm stays south of 160 Im sure I 35 will be the safest route south.

 

[Chris Sokol]

...Im sure I 35 will be the safest route south.

LOL...I-35 isn't always the safest route in clear, dry weather!

 

[Robert Hettchen]

Take a look at the snow forecast in the graphical section - they aren't much different at all from their surrounding.

Its not so much the snowfall amounts that I think is weird as it is the chance of precip. Run your mouse over the probability of precip.
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/centplains.php?element=Wx

you cant tell me that the pops blend in with the other nws cwa

 

[Chris Heater]

WOW! The 00z NAM run shifted storm pretty far east! Better for my area, but areas such as Omaha could see their winter storm completely bust if this run happened to verify. I think it's coming to a consensus that a further east track is plausible and becoming more and more likely. It's something to keep a very close eye on!!!

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Where are you already getting 0z runs from?

 

[Chris Heater]

Where are you already getting 0z runs from?

I meant UTC. Here is the link http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

 

[Kenny Drake]

Where are you already getting 0z runs from?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/

Another option.

 

[Adam Lucio]

IL would still be in the warm sector if that run verifies...if one is looking for snow that run is surely nothing to get worked up over. Either way we better get our rain and flood gear ready.

Everything around me is coated in a layer of ice. The trees sound like a bowl of rice krispies everytime the wind blows. Still raining, but not sure if its freezing or not. The thermometer on my porch says 33. NWS says 32 and the METAR says 34 MISSING. Would like to see more ice.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Call me a wishcaster but I really don't believe what the NAM is showing. The RUC is showing the low follow the track of the GFS which is at this point seems what all the NWS offices believe as well.

Here is the 3hr snowfall rates at 06z tomorrow night.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_backup/.//+sa4_snow+am+30

I also believe this solution as it shows the current snow bands down in W TX.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_backup/.//+sa4_snow+am+08
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lbb&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Here is the website to see the RUC
http://ruc.noaa.gov/pig.cgi?13km_Backup

Call me a wishcaster but that NAM model just seems way to extreme.

 

[Chris Heater]

Well...it could always shift further east. The models seem to continue to shift it further and further east, its just how far. It's something to watch. We'll know the best Thursday morning *wishcasting involved*

 

[Chris Allington]

Looking at the 00z NAM, I really don't think the track is all that much further east, its just a difference in how its phasing the 2 pieces of energy and precip. Its alot stronger with the northern upper low closing it off a running it along the KS/NE border before phasing it with the surface low in C IA, its just slightly east of earlier forecasts, but phases much later so the low pressure is alot more elongated with less wrap around precip. It also develops alot of heavy convective precip in the warm sector cutting off what would wrap around once the system occludes. We will have to see what the GFS does, but based on the RUC Michael posted, I think the NAM might be having issues with the on going convection.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Wow, the 00z NAM has pulled the low WAY south.....

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

At this sort of rate the NAM would have forecasters in Bermuda scrambling. Sorry to say it Chris, but I fear you/IL are going to end up too far west of things.

The timing is perfect, it is right in that, stick-a-knife-in-and-turn-it-let-down-zone. I could see it happening actually, given what all has to happen with phasing and walls of convection.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

KFWD seems to be concurring with the latest NAM after reading their latest AFD. Wouldn't be surprised to see them issue some sort of WWA for NC TX within the next hour or two.

 

[rdale]

Nope.....meant west.

Not following - are you saying that Illinois is too far west, so all the wintry fun will be east of them (IN/OH)?